The Earthquake Cycle

Chapter :: n/a

A German seismogram of the 1906 SF EQ

Image courtesy of San Francisco Public Library

 Stages of the Earthquake Cycle
• The Earthquake cycle is split into several distinct phases /
stages based on the deformation observed:
– Interseismic
• The time between large earthquakes
– Preseismic
• The time just before an earthquake when anomalous things happen
– Coseismic
• The time during an earthquake
– Postseismic
• The time after a large earthquake when anomalous deformation occurs.
• The preseismic phase has proven elusive and inconsistent
– It may not even exist!
• The other three phases are commonly observed
– Postseismic involves complex math !
• We will only briefly discuss this stage
 The Revolution :: Elastic Rebound
• After the Mw7.9 1906 SF EQ, H.F. Reid proposed that
– Earthquakes represent rapid release of strain/stress built up
over a long period of time (hundreds of years)
– Called elastic rebound theory
– Confirmed by
• Geodetic measurements of surface motion
(triangulation)
• Geologic measurements of offset
– 450 km long rupture (360 km on land)
– Average slip 4.5 m
– Reid postulated: Pacific Ocean floor
must be spreading, pushing the west
side of the SAF to the NW.
– He recommended a monitoring
program
– Not adopted until 60 yrs later
Reid’s Evidence for Elastic Rebound
 Farallon Duxbury Point,
Lighthouse Bolinas Beach
 Before the 1906 Earthquake…

Farallon Duxbury Point,

Lighthouse Bolinas Beach

• Locations far from the fault were moving fast

• Locations near the fault were moving slow
• Same was true on other side of the fault, but motions
were in the opposite direction
 During the 1906 Earthquake…

Farallon Duxbury Point,

Lighthouse Bolinas Beach

• Locations near the fault were displaced very far

• Locations far from the fault were displaced very little
• Same was true on other side of the fault, but motions
were in the opposite direction
Reid’s Hypothesis :: Elastic Rebound Theory
• Although plate tectonics theory was ~50+ years from being
developed, Reid’s hypothesis is consistent with plate tectonics
• Elastic rebound is also consistent
with geologic observations!

Interseismic Coseismic Long-Term Block Offset

+ =
Elastic Strain is Elastic strain is After the EQ, elastic strain
localized near fault released has been released
 The Earthquake Cycle: Graphical Form
• Reid proposed: Interseismic
– Interseismic strain Coseismic
accumulates slowly and is
Long-Term / Geologic
eventually released in an EQ
– The coseismic strain release =
total accumulated interseismic
strain
• The net result:
– Block offsets over geologic
timescales
• He made the prediction that
the next EQ would happen
when the same amount of
interseismic strain had
accumulated
– Called a time-predictable
model
– Turned out to be unreliable
 What is Happening
During the EQ Cycle?

• Interseismic
– Deep, steady, &
slow aseismic slip
(i.e. creep)

• Coseismic
– Rapid shallow slip
Conventional Interseismic Model
• Semi-infinite vertical
dislocation embedded in
x an elastic earth.
– Semi-infinite height
– Infinite length
– ux = displacement of ground
around the fault
y – x = distance from fault
– b = fault slip rate
– D = locking depth

b x

This is an analytical model based on mathematics

developed by the engineering community
 Displacement
• Displacement = u - uo
– Final position – initial position
– Measured anywhere in a medium
• Applies to the motion of a single particle
– A vector quantity (has a magnitude and direction)
– Difficult to measure in the geologic record
• Don’t know initial position, only know final position final position = u

ment
s place
di

Initial position = u0
 Slip
• Slip = u+ + u-
– A.k.a: Offset / Displacement Discontinuity / Burgers Vector
– Displacements are discontinuous across a fault
• This is why geophysicists refer to faults as discontinuities or dislocations
– Slip is the sum of the displacements on both sides of a fault
• A vector quantity (recall that the slip vector has a “rake”)
– Applies to the relative motion across a fault
• So it is only measured across faults! Offset Feature

Slip
Fault

• So, slip measures the distance along a fault surface

between two points that used to be connected
Slip vs. Displacement
slip = 1

u+ = 1

u- = 0 • Can’t determine displacements

unless you know the original
position

slip = 1
– In geology, you almost never know
the original position
u+ = 0.5 – In geophysics, you sometimes
know the original position (GPS)

• It is the sum of the

u- = 0.5 displacements on both sides of a
fault (i.e. the slip) that matters
when considering earthquakes
 Coseismic Rupture Dimensions slip

• Coseismic ruptures commonly

– Are longer than they are deep
• Can be approximated by a rectangle
Let’s Trench!
• If surface ruptures…
– Can be measured by geologists
• If no surface rupture…
– Rupture can be mapped by
aftershocks
– Rupture can be estimated by
surface deformation models
– Can also be determined by
analyzing seismic wave patterns Fault Trace

Offset road from the Mw7.1 1999 Hector Mine EQ

The 1966 Parkfield EQ

brittle-ductile transition

Show
Show Northridge
Northridge 3D
3D
 Controls on Rupture Dimensions
• Recall the two main layers of the Earth:
– Lithosphere: Brittle Rocks
Brittle-Ductile Transition
– Asthenosphere: Ductile Rocks
Temperature (oC)
0 200 400 600 800
• Earthquakes only occur in the 0 0
mid-o
lithosphere cean r
idge
con conti
• Heat flow / geothermal 4 co
tine
nta
nen
tal r
iftin
nti

Pressure (Kbar)
ne l tr g
gradient controls the level of a

Depth (km)
nsf

sub
nt- or m
co s 20
nti

duc
the brittle ductile transition ne
nt

tion
– Hot rocks: ductile 8 co
llis
io n
– Cold rocks: brittle
• Subduction zones have 12 40
greatest potential rupture
width (depth)
• Mid ocean ridges have smallest
potential rupture width
 Largest EQ’s: Subduction
• The 3 largest
earthquakes recorded:

– MW9.2 1964 Good

Friday EQ, Anchorage,
Alaska

– MW9.1-9.3 2004 Great

Sumatra EQ
• 20 m maximum slip!!
• 1200 km long rupture!

– MW9.5 1960 Chile EQ

Slip on an earthquake fault

START

Surface of the earth

Depth
Into the
earth 
100 km (60 miles)
Distance along the fault plane
Slip on an earthquake fault
Second 2.0
Slip on an earthquake fault
Second 4.0
Slip on an earthquake fault
Second 6.0
Slip on an earthquake fault
Second 8.0
Slip on an earthquake fault
Second 10.0
Slip on an earthquake fault
Second 12.0
Slip on an earthquake fault
Second 14.0
Slip on an earthquake fault
Second 16.0
Slip on an earthquake fault
Second 18.0
Slip on an earthquake fault
Second 20.0
Slip on an earthquake fault
Second 22.0
Slip on an earthquake fault
Second 24.0
Rupture on a Fault

Total Slip in the M7.3 Landers Earthquake

 Quantifying Earthquake Size
• There are two basic ways to quantify the size of an
earthquake.

– Intensity
• Measures the amount of shaking at a given location
• Depends on location
– i.e. a given earthquake will have lots of different intensities

– Magnitude
• Measures the amount of energy released at the source
• Does not depend on location
– A given earthquake will just have one magnitude (on each scale)

Haiti Photo Courtesy: UN Photo/Logan Abassi United Nations Development Programme

 Intensity
• Measured on the Modified Mercalli Scale (1931)
– Twelve categories
– Denoted by Roman numerals
– Plotted as isoseismals: zones of same intensity
– Intensity in general decreases away from epicenter, but local geology can
completely control intensity in some cases…

(only measured by instruments)

Severity of Shaking Depends On:
• Magnitude of the earthquake
• Distance from hypocenter
• The nature of the substrate at location
– Stiff bedrock shakes less
– Soft rock shakes a lot
– Sedimentary basins can amplify waves
• E.g. 1985 Mexico city MW8.0 > 350 km away
• The frequency of the seismic waves
– High frequency waves do most damage but do
not travel very far (i.e. they attenuate)
• Car stereo analogy (bass)
– In general…
– Long ruptures generate long wavelengths (low
frequencies)
– Short ruptures generate short wavelengths
(high frequencies) Mexico city
 Buildings - Mexico City, 1985
• Thousands of buildings destroyed
• Prompted Mexico to develop building
codes

After

Before

[TerraShake Animations]
 Magnitude
• Magnitude = A measure of the
amount of energy released at the
source of the EQ.
• Richter Scale: A type of magnitude
measurement coined by Charles
Richter in 1935.
– ML = log10 (max amplitude of S-waves in
units of 10-6 m)
– Used a logarithmic scale to make the
wide range of measurements easy to
deal with
• A change of one in Richter magnitude = 10x
the ground motion and 30x the energy.
– Also called the “local magnitude”
• Based on measurements of S-wave
amplitudes at 100 km from epicenter
• Can be effectively “corrected” for
seismometers at different distances Photos of Charles Richter (1900-1985) courtesy of USGS
 The Richter Nomogram
• How seismogram
readings are made into
ML
• Can have negative
magnitude
• No mathematical upper
limit on magnitude
– i.e. 10 is not max
 Richter’s ups and Downs
• Richter scale advantages:
– First quantitative measure of energy release
– Can be computed minutes after an EQ
– Good for nearby, shallow, and moderate EQ’s

• The Richter scale shortcomings:

– At epicentral distances > 600 km, surface waves have greater amplitude than S-
waves
• ML underestimates distant events
• Instead, we use MS, “surface wave magnitude”, which is based on the amplitude of surface
waves (R-waves)
– Underestimates deep earthquakes (S-waves attenuate faster than P-waves)
• Instead we use mb, “body wave magnitude”, for deep events.
• Uses the maximum amplitude of either body wave.

• All of these underestimate very large EQ’s

– We now use “Moment Magnitude”, MW = 2/3 log10 M0 - 10.7
– M0 is the “Seismic Moment”
Background: seismogram from MW9.2 1964 Alaska EQ, courtesy USGS
 Seismic Moment
• Seismic moment, M0, is mathematically based on the
torque exerted by the shear stress couple (i.e. the
deformation on both sides of a fault)

• M0 = μAd
– μ = shear modulus
– A = fault rupture area
– d = average slip during earthquake
• μ does not greatly vary for different rock types at depth
– Typically ~ 30 GPa
• So, A, and d are what matter
– But what controls A and d?
Seismic Moment and the Sizes of Ruptures
• Small EQ’s have small rupture areas and
small average slip
• Slip is much smaller than rupture length
• Due to finite fault width (brittle-ductile
transition), small earthquakes follow
different scaling
• Where would subduction EQ’s plot
below?

s
h r ust
gat
me
u ction
d
sub
Bigger (longer) Faults Make Bigger Earthquakes

1000

100
Kilometers

10

1
5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8
Magnitude
Bigger Earthquakes Last Longer

100
Seconds

10

1
5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8
Magnitude
 Earthquake Prediction (?)
• Currently scientists can’t make short term predictions of earthquakes
– e.g. there will be an earthquake next Tuesday at 8:07 AM.
• We can make some long term predictions
– There will very likely be a large earthquake on the San Andreas fault in the next
hundred years.
– In the next hundred years it is unlikely that there will be a large earthquake in
central Canada
• Seismic Hazard
– Is there a seismic source?
• Seismic Risk
– What sort of risk does this source pose to civilization?
– E.g. no people no risk
• Seismic Hazard Assessments are based on:
– Locations of faults
– Slip rates of faults
– Recurrence intervals (time between events)
– Local geology effects (liquefaction / basin fill)
– Seismic gaps
 Building Codes
• In response to the 1971 M6.6 Sylmar EQ, the state of California passed new
laws prohibiting the building of public buildings within ¼ mile of an active fault
zone (private houses within 50 feet)
– Called “Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zones ”
• Since short term earthquake predictions may be impossible, building codes are
the main way to save lives in future earthquake events
• Building codes (zoning laws) are based on seismic hazard assessments
• Insurance companies also are very interested in seismic hazard maps
 Seismic Gaps & The North Anatolian Fault, Turkey
• Seismic Gaps: Areas where the fault has not moved in a long time
– These regions may be the next to go
• Stress Triggering: When an earthquake happens, the motion changes the stress
on nearby faults, possibly making them more or less likely to fail.
– The North Anatolian Fault is an excellent example of both of these phenomenon

(Ross Stein animations)