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Rural Road Risk Thesis
Rural Road Risk Thesis
Bhalwari, Rupandehi
1
Outline
• INTRODUCTION
Background
Statement of the Problem
Research Questions
Research Objectives
Significance of the Study
Scope and Limitations of the Study
• LITERATURE REVIEW
• METHODOLOGY
Research Flow Process
Study Area
Population and Sample size
Data collections
Summary of Methodology
2
Outline
• RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Risk Management Practice, Contractor’s and Client’s perspective
Risk factors
Overall Risk Significance and allocation, Contractor’s Perspective
Overall Risk Significance and allocation, Client’s Perspective
Risk Management actions
3
Background
Risk Management
Constructing a road project is mainly dependent on
management of various types of risk.
Management of risk involves identification of various risks
associated with a project and assessment thereof. Simply put,
risk management entails shifting and/or sharing risks.
Risk considered both positive and negative events . Positive
events is called opportunity and negative events is called
threats.
Risk Management facilities on making risk decision network.
4
Statement of the problem
What are the risk factors and severity and how could it be
allocated at urban road construction project of
Shiddharthanagar Municipality, Rupandehi, Nepal?
6
Objectives of study
General Objectives
• To analyze the risk management practice in urban road
construction project in Shiddharthanagar Municipality, Rupandehi,
Nepal from the contractor’s and client’s perspectives.
Specific objectives
• To access the risk management practice in urban road construction
project in Shiddharthanagar Municipality, Rupandehi, Nepal based
on contractor’s and client’s perspectives.
• To identify and analyze risk factors with their severity and allocation
from contractor’s and client’s perspectives.
• To analyze the risk response strategies of various risk factors as per
contractor’s and client’s perspectives.
7
Significance of study
Risk
Risk can be defined as an uncertain event or condition that, if it
occurs, has a positive or a negative effect on a project objective
Jaafari (2001) defined risk as the exposure to loss/gain, or the
probability of occurrence of loss/gain multiplied by its
respective magnitude.
10
Typical Risks on a construction project
According to the (Flanagan & Norman, 1993) the typical
risk on a construction project are as:
• Occurrence of accidents
• Failure to complete within the specified time.
• Failure to obtain the expected outline
• Unforeseen adverse conditions
• Unexpected rises for labor and materials
• Force majeure.
• Failure to complete the project within the client's budget.
11
Contd..
Risk Management Process Two main phases:
12
Contd…
Risk Analysis
According to Estate Management Manual; Risk Management, 2001
14
Empirical Review on Risk Management
Global Practice on Risk Management
Abu Mousa (2005) explain in their study "Risk management in
construction project from Contractor and owner perspectives " from
Palestine that top risk factors faced by construction industry are
Awarded design to unqualified designers
Accepted defective design
Occurrence of accidents because of poor safety procedures
Difficulty to access the site (vary far, settlement)
Inaccurate quantities
Lack of consistency between bill of quantities, drawing and
specification
Working a hot (dangerous) areas
Financial failure of the contractor
High competition in bids.
15
Regional practice on Risk management
16
Risk management practices in Nepal
•
Malik K (et.al, 2017) in their paper "Factor and impact of risk management
practices on success of construction project of housing developers,
Kathmandu Nepal" had sets insights into the significant factors of risk in
construction projects of housing in Kathmandu are
time overrun,
project scope risks,
financial and economical risks,
organization risks,
safety and health risks and
leadership risks and leadership risks.
17
Research Methodology
Data Collection
Final report
18
The study will be in conduct in Shiddharthanagar Municipality, Rupandehi,I den tifi ca tion of Pro ble m
S eco nd ar y D ata
(J ou rna l, R epo rts , Pu bli s h ed a nd un pub lis he d re s ea rch pa pe r e tc.)
Sel ecti on of Re s ea rch top ic
Sel ecti on of s tu dy are a
Re s e ar ch Q ue s ti on d es ig n
Data Co lle cti on
Pri ma ry D at a
(F.G .D, In d ep th i nter vie w , Int era ctio n w ith lo cal pe opl es , Qu es tion na ires s u rve y)
3.2 Stu dy ar ea
19
Data Collection
a)Primary Data:
Primary data were collected through field studies, questionnaire and interviews
with Project Managers and Site in charge of contractors and clients.
The questionnaires were provided to same level of personnel from contractor as
well as client
The primary data collection were done through interview with respective Project
In Charge and Project Manager at construction site as a convenient sampling.
b)Secondary Data:
The collections of secondary data were done before starting the field survey
focusing the objective of the study.
Literature review, publications, journals were collected during the research.
20
Summary of Methodology
2 To identify and analyze Risk factors like Project scope, design Questionnaire survey Severity analysis and
risk factors with their and specification, quality, cost overrun, and secondary data allocation of various
severity and allocation. leadership, organizational, physical through literature review, risk factors for clients
resources mobilization and utilization, journals, publications and contractors.
technology, contractual, force majeure including reference taken
and ecological, political legal and field study, interview
social, financial and economic, safety with in charge and
health and environment, and Project Manager.
communication and network failure.
3 To analyze the risk Various potential risk of project, risk of Questionnaire survey Documentation of risk
response strategies of projects, risk response of project, with clients and response strategy with
Major risk factors. preventive and remedial methods for contractors including their preventive and
major risks. reference taken field remedial methods for
study, interview with in various risks for
charge and Project contractors and
Manager. clients.
21
Result and discussion
22
Contd…
23
Con td….
24
Risk factor
Severity
No. Project Scope Risk Factor Contractor’s Client’s
Severity Severity
(1-25) (1-25)
27
Allocation- Contractor’s Perspective
Risk Avoid Risk Transferred Risk Shared Risk Acceptance
10.34%
No analysis in change in problem 27.59%
62.07%
0%
6.89%
Frequently changing scope requirements 17.24%
65.51%
10%
17.24%
Ill defined project scope 68.96%
13.79%
0%
65.52%
High complexity 13.79%
20.69%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
28
Allocation- Client’s Perspective
Risk Avoided Risk Transferred Risk Shared Risk Accepted
16.67%
No analysis of changes in problem 0% 17%
67%
16.67%
Frequent changing scope requirement 0% 17%
67%
75.00%
Ill- defined project 0% 25%
0%
83.33%
High Complexity 0% 17%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
29
Overall Risk Significance and Allocation, Contractor’s
Perspective
Severity
S.N Risk Factors Severity Group
(1-25)
Most important risk
1 Land acquisition delay 24.48 Political, legal and social
2 Strike 23.10 Political, legal and social
3 Payment Problem 21.89 Contractual
4 Corruption 20.82 Political, legal and social
5 Inaccurate activity time estimates 20.51 Time overrun
Least Important Risk categories
1 No backup data available 4.34 Communication and Network
2 Pollution 3.17 Political, legal and social
3 Pollution 1.51 Communication and Network
4 Landline phone not working properly 1.41 Communication and Network
30
Overall Allocation-Contractor
Risk Accepted
S.N Risk Description S.N Risk Description
1 Incorporation of new construction technology 20 Change order negotiations
2 Re-working defects 21 Extra work variation
3 Poor quality material 22 Payment problem
4 No soil investigation 23 Acts of god
5 Incomplete WBS 24 Ecological damage
6 Delay payment on contract 25 Epidemics
7 Constantly change market conditions 26 Change in government policies, regulations,
rules, laws
8 No extra work control 27 Pollution
9 Planning with resources management 28 waste treatment
10 Inadequate communication infrastructure 29 Local regulation
11 Inadequate and procurement of resources 30 Permits and regulation
12 low quality 31 Investment risk
13 Local requirement 32 Inflations
14 Waste 33 Local and national taxes
15 Special equipment and materials delay 34 Effect of time and cost overrun
16 Low productivity 35 Internet server breakdown
17 Damage during construction due to negligence 36 Landline phone not working properly
18 Inadequate information in new technology 37 High electricity fluctuations
19 Error or omission in bills of quantities 38 Non availability of anti-virus software to
safeguard office computers
31
Risk Shared
32
Risk Avoided
33
Risk Transferred
S. Risk Description S.N Risk Description
N
1 Ill- defined project 10 Non standard and inconsistent
condition of contract
2 Likelihood of design change 11 Insufficient time to prepare bid
tenders
3 Poor design 12 Change in work
4 Non- conformity with national 13 Unrealistic tender amount
and local specification
5 Right of way analysis in error 14 Rush bidding
6 No formal sequencing plan 15 Quality of work and time constant
7 Inadequate cost planning and 16 Delay disputes resolution
control
8 No analysis of changing 17 Cash flow problems
9 Unrealistic expectation
34
Risk Undecided
35
Overall Risk Significance and Allocation, Client’s
Perspective
Severity
S.N Risk Factors Severity Group
Most important risk
1 Land acquisition delay 16.00 Political, legal and social
2 15.50 Physical resources, mobilization and
Low productivity utilization
3 Special equipment and material delay Physical resources, mobilization and
14.40 utilization
4 Inaccurate cost estimate 13.66 Cost Overrun
5 Accidents/strikes/work stoppage and Safety, Health and Environment
worker perception 13.16
Least Important Risk categories
1 Internet server break down 2.5 Communication and Network
2 Epidemics 2.08 Force measures and ecological
3 Landline phone not working properly Communication and Network
1.83
4 Local and national taxes 1.5 Financial and economical
5 Non availability of anti-virus to Communication and Network
safeguard office computer 1
36
Contd…
The spearman's rank correlation between contractor's
perspective and client's perspective is 0.4 which is
very less. So, it is concluded that risk significance
between them is very poor.
This result is supported by (Shakya.S et.al, 2019)
which gives the spearman's rank correlation between
(employer and contractor) is 0.44.
37
Overall Allocation- Client’s Perspective
Risk Accepted
S.N Risk Description S.N Risk Description
1 Frequent changing scope requirement 18 Local requirement
2 No analysis of changes in problem 19 Non standard and inconsistent condition of
contract
3 Inadequate design information 20 Insufficient time to prepare bid tenders
4 Unrealistic specification 21 Unrealistic tender amount
5 Inaccurate quantities 22 Change order negotiations
6 Poor design 23 Change in work
7 Non- conformity with national and local 24 Change in government policies,
specification regulations, rules, laws
8 Right of way analysis in error 25 Permits and regulation
9 Likelihood of design change 26 Disputes among parties
10 No method statement 27 Local regulation
11 Inaccurate cost estimate 28 Local and national taxes
12 Inadequate cost planning and control 29 Cash flow problems
13 Delay payment on contract 30 Non availability of anti-virus software to
safeguard office computers
14 No analysis of changing 31 Landline phone not working properly
15 Constantly change market conditions 32 High electricity fluctuations
16 Lack of senior management support 33 Internet server breakdown
17 Inadequate communication infrastructure 34
38
Risk Shared
39
Risk Transferred
S.N Risk Description S.N Risk Description
1 Incorporation of new construction 17 Damage during construction due to
technology negligence
2 Re-working defects 18 Inadequate information in new technology
3 No soil investigation 19 Non-availability of competent and
professional staff to use new technology
4 Poor quality material 20 Delay in possession of site
5 Absence of approved soil and material 21 Error or omission in bills of quantities
testing laboratories
6 No quality assurance plan 22 Extra work variation
7 Incomplete WBS 23 Pollution
8 Incomplete assessment of project time, cost 24 waste treatment
9 Inability to take timely the corrective action 25 Investment risk
10 No extra work control 26 Inflations
11 Inflexible and unrealistic project plans 27 Escalations of prices
12 Planning with resources management 28 Effect of time and cost overrun
13 Inadequate and low quality procurement of 29 Unsafe working condition
resources
14 Non- availability of spare parts 30 Non-conformance to statutory requirement
15 Waste 31 Absence of safety audit
16 Low productivity 32 Accidents/strikes/work stoppage and worker
perceptions
40
Risk Avoided
41
Risk Undecided
42
Risk Response Strategy
Various methods to identify potential risk of the project, Contractor's and Client's
perspectives.
100.00% 89.65%
90.00% 83.33%
80.00% 75.00%
68.96%
70.00%
60.00% 50.00% 50.00%
50.00% 44.82%
40.00% 33.33%
30.00%
20.00% 13.79%
8.33%
10.00% 3.44% 0.00%
0.00%
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43
Various methods to analyze risk of the project,
Contractor's and Client's perspective.
80.00%
72%
70.00% 66.67%
50.00%
41.67%
40.00% 38%
33.33%
30.00% 25.00%
20.00% 16.67%
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0.00%
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44
Various methods to response risk of the project,
Contractor's and Client's perspective.
90.00% 82.75%83.33%
80.00% 72.41%
70.00% 66.67%
58.33%
60.00%
50.00% 41.67% 41.37%
40.00%
30.00% 20.68% 24.13%
20.00% 16.67%
10.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00%
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45
Preventive methods, Contractor's and Clients
perspectives
80.00% 70.35% 68.96%
63.33% 65.00% 62.75%
60.00% 56.66% 55.00%
53.80% 55.00%
40.00% 29.65%
20.00%
0.00%
46
Remedial Methods, Contractor's and Client's
perspectives
100.00%
90.00% 86.89% 88.33% 84.82%
80.00% 75.00%
70.00% 64.82% 61.66%
59.31% 58.33%
60.00% 55.17% 58.33%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
47
Conclusion
48
Contd…
• From the contractor perspective, risk accepted (31.14%) ,
shared risk with client (18.35%), transferred risk to client
(13.93%), avoids the risk (24.59%) and undecided risk
(11.47%) where as clients accept risk (27.04%) , shared risk
with contractors (18.03%), transferred to contractors
(26.22%), avoids the risk (22.90%) and undecided risk
(5.73%).
• The response strategy from the contractor's perspective
for various methods to identify potential risk of the project,
feedback from the similar project plays the most significant
role with 89.65% where as for client’s perspective 83.33%.
49
Contd…
In addition for various methods to response
risk of the project, monitor the risk and
prepare the contingency plan plays the most
significant role with 82.75%. where as for
client’s perspective 83.33%.
Transfer or share risk to/with other parties
referring previous and ongoing similar projects
was the most applied to prevents risk events
by the contractor and depend on subjective
judgment by the client.
50
Recommendation
53
Contd..
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57
Contd…
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58
Thank You
59