Hypothesis testing

(significance testing)
Ass.prof.: hanaa abou elyazid
Community and Occupational Medicine department
Al- Azhar university, Cairo
Lecture Outline:
•State null and alternative hypothesis
•Explain the purpose of hypothesis
testing
•Differentiate type I and type II errors
•Write example of the null and
alternative hypotheses
 Descriptive VS analytic studies

 Descriptive VS inferential statistics

 Basic terminologies
 Research question: what one is researching in the question
format.

 Research hypothesis:

 Statistical hypothesis:
 Definitions
 Research hypothesis:  A research hypothesis is
the supposition or assumption or claim that
motivates the researcher. 
 It may be proposed after numerous repeated
observation. 
 Research hypotheses lead directly to statistical
hypotheses.

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 Definitions
Statistical hypotheses: research
hypothesis are stated in such a way
that they may be tested (evaluated)
by appropriate statistical
techniques (hypothesis testing). 
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Statistical hypotheses.

H0: Null Hypothesis

 What we assume is true to begin with
 Typically that there is no
difference/effect/relationship etc.
HA(H1)Research (Alternative) Hypothesis
 What we aim to gather evidence of
 Typically that there is a
difference/effect/relationship etc.
1- The null hypothesis is the hypothesis that will be tested.

- The null hypothesis should contain an expression of

equality, either =, ≤ or ≥

2- Your expected conclusion, or what you hope to

conclude as a result of the experiment should be placed in
the alternative hypothesis.

-The symbolic form of the alternative hypothesis must use one

of these symbols: , >, <.

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Stating statistical hypotheses

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 Example 1
 We have a medicine that is being
manufactured and each pill is supposed to
have 14 milligrams of the active ingredient.
What are our null and alternative hypotheses?

 H0: μ=14
 H1: μ ≠14
 Example 2
 Health Insurance claims that in 2011, the average
monthly premium paid for individual health
coverage was $183. you are suspicious that the
average, or mean, cost is actually higher.

State the null and alternative hypothesis you would

use to test this.

 H0: μ=183
 H1: μ >183
 Example 3
 In a group of 371 students, 42(11.3%) were left-
handed. Is this significantly lower than the
proportion of all Egyptians who are left-
handed, which is 12%?

 H0 : p = 12%
 Ha : p < 12%
Characteris Diabetics (50) Non diabetics Statistical p-value
tics (36) test

Homocyste 17.18±8.72 14.09±9.35 Student 0.03*

test=4.1
ine
No of the      
vessels : Chi square  0.07
 One 10 18 =test
40 3.17
 Two 32

*statistical significant difference (P value <0.05).

 Hypothesis Testing

The process of deciding

statistically whether the findings of
the research reflect chance or real
(statistically significant) effects at a
given level of probability

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 Hypothesis Testing
1-state the hypotheses, and decide upon a level of significance
for the test (the probability of the alpha error).
3 Collect a sample of data.
4 Calculate a test statistic from the sample of data.
5 calculating the p-value (probability of error).
6 Reject the null hypothesis if the p-value is less than the level of

significance. Otherwise, retain the null hypothesis.

Characteris Diabetics (50) Non diabetics Statistical p-value
tics (36) test

Homocyste 17.18±8.72 14.09±9.35 Student 0.03*

test=4.1
ine
No of the      
vessels : Chi square  0.07
 One 10 18 =test
40 3.17
 Two 32

*statistical significant difference (P value <0.05).

 Errors
Because hypothesis tests are based on
sample data, we must allow for the
possibility of errors.
Two types of pitfalls can occur
- Type 1 error: observing a difference when in
truth there is none

- Type 2 error: failing to observe a difference

where there is one.
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 A Type I error is rejecting H0 when it is true.
 The probability of making a Type I error
when the null hypothesis is true is called
the level of significance (the maximum
probability of a Type I error for all
distributions consistent with the null
hypothesis).
 Type II Error

 A Type II error is accepting H0 when it is false.

 It is difficult to control for the probability of
making a Type II error (usually its unknown)

 Statisticians avoid the risk of making a Type II

error by using “do not reject H0” and not

“accept H0”.
 Types of Errors
Controlled via sample size Typically restrict to a 5% Risk
(=1-Power of test) = level of significance
Study reports Study reports
NO difference IS a difference
(Do not reject H0) (Reject H0)
H0 is true
Difference Does
NOT exist in
population X Type I
Error
HA is true
Difference DOES
exist in population
X Type II
Error

r.ac.uk
Prob of this = Power of test
Thank
You…