BASIC PROBABILITY

CONCEPTS
PROBABILITY

 Chances
 Fractions
 Decimals
 Between 0 &1

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Event
Experiment
Sample Space

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MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENT
▪ ONE AT A TIME

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COLLECTIVELY EXHAUSIVE LIST
▫ LIST OF EVENTS CAN RESULT
FROM AN EXPERIMENT

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3 TYPES OF PROBABILITY
 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY
measures the likelihood of something
happening.
Probability of = Number of outcome favorable
an event to the occurrence of the event
Total number of possible
outcomes 6
▫ Problem:
What is the probability of
rolling 6 on one die?

P(6) = 1
1+1+1+1+1+1
=1
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 RELATIVE FREQUENCY OF
OCCURENCE
uses relative frequencies of past occurrence as
probabilities

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 SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES
personal beliefs or feelings

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PROBALITY RULES
▫ MANAGERS USE
PROBABILITIES WHEN THEY
ARE CONCERNED IN 2
SITUATIONS:
1. WHEN 1 EVENT OR ANOTHER WILL
OCCUR
2. WHEN 2 OR MORE EVENTS WILL ALL
OCCUR
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 SYMBOL FOR MARGINAL
PROBABILITY
P (A)
 Probability of event A

 SINGLE PROBABILITY

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VENN DIAGRAM
Uses circles to visualize relationship among things
 JOHN VENN
- English Mathematician/Priest

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Mutually Exclusive Not Mutually Exclusive
ADDITION RULE FOR MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EVENT
P(A or B) = P(A) + P (B)

Problem:
In a Multiple Choice Exam with A, B,
C, D, E & F possible answers. What is the
probability of getting B or E as the
correct answer?
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P(B)= 1/6 P(E)= 1/6
P (B or E) = P(B) + P(E)
= 1/6 + 1/6
= 2/6
= 1/3

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ADDITION RULE FOR NOT MUTUALLY
EXCLUSIVE EVENT
P(A or B) = P(A)+ P(B) – P(A and B)

Problem:
After picking a random single card
in a deck of 52 cards. What is the
probability of choosing a queen or
spade?
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P (Queen) = 4/52 P(Spade)= 13/52
P (Queen or Spade) = P(Queen) + P(Spade) - P(Queen of
Spade)
= 4/52 + 13/52 – 1/52
= 16/52
= 4/13

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Thanks!

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