Seasonal pattern recognition in weather forecasting

Under the Guidance of :

Mrs. Abantika Choudhury

Sl.no. Name University Roll Number

1 Natasha Chanda 11700217078

2 Srijani Roy 11700217022

3 Barnik Podder 11700217101

4 Abhishek Dey 11700218002

 Introduction

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a
given location. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the
atmosphere and using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to project how the atmosphere will
evolve. Weather forecasts are essentially done by collecting quantitative historical data of weather conditions
and analyzing patterns in them and predict the future outcomes of weather Linear Regression models,
techniques to predict amount of rainfall and speed of wind. Whether linear regression equations and models
can be used to effectively predict the weather needs to be evaluated but to do that we need to understand the
linear regression model.If data points clearly will not fit a linear regression (a straight line through all data
points), it might be ideal for Multiple Linear Regression.
 Problem Description

● The benefits of identifying important features of mechanical learning, complex data sets, play an
important role in forecasting of weather.
● Pattern recognition is a process of finding regularities and similarities in data using machine learning
data.
● As seasonal pattern exists when a series is influenced by seasonal factors.
 Related Work

● In the paper presented by A H M Jakaria et.al [1], a study was made by collecting the weather data of
Nashville in Tennessee and data of surrounding cities. The training data set consisted of two months
worth of weather data of July and August 2018.
● Paras and Mathur[2] (2012) applied the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) to develop a model for
forecasting weather parameters. It was found that the proposed model is capable of forecasting the
weather conditions for a particular station using the data collected locally.
● Massie and Rose[3] (1997) applied a simple linear regression method to predict daily maximum
temperatures investigated at Nashville, Tennessee.
Proposed Solution
 Proposed Solution
Step 1- importing all the necessary libraries.
Step 2- Reading the csv file and loading the
dataset as ‘data’.
Step 3- Then describe the data set and visually
shown how the data is distributed(boxplot).
Step 4- Removed the missing values.
Step 5- Date wise sorted ‘data’ and stored that
as ‘idata’.
Step 6- Dropped all the duplicate values from
‘idata’ except for the first occurrence.
Step 7- Visually represented the data set,
‘idata’.
Step 8- Splitted ‘idata’ for training and testing.
Step 9- changed string values to integer.
Step10- created the regression model and
fitted the trained dataset.
Step 11- Then predicted data
Step 12- converted the predicted float
values to integer and then integer to string.
Step 13- displayed the predicted data frame
Step 14- Showed the difference between
actual and predicted values.
Step 15- Then showed mean absolute error,
mean squared error, and root mean
squared error.
 Result

Predicted data frame

Result
 Result

Calculated error
 Reference
[1] A H M Jakaria, Md Mosharaf Hossain, and Mohammad Ashiqur Rahman. 2018. Smart Weather
Forecasting Using Machine Learning: A Case Study inTennessee. In Proceedings of ACM Mid-Southeast
conference (Mid Southeast’18). ACM, New York,NY, USA.

[2] Paras, A., Mathur, S.: Simple weather forecasting model using mathematical regression. Indian Res. J.
Extension Educ. Special Issue 1, 161–168 (2012)

[3] Massie, D. and M. Rose, 1997: Predicting daily maximum temperatures using linear regression and
Eta geopotential thickness forecasts. Weather Forecasting, 12, 799-807

[4]Wikipedia.org