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Introduction To Probability: ASW, Chapter 4 Skip Section 4.5
Introduction To Probability: ASW, Chapter 4 Skip Section 4.5
Introduction To Probability: ASW, Chapter 4 Skip Section 4.5
ASW, Chapter 4
Skip section 4.5
i n
i 1
P ( Ei ) 1
Examples of sample spaces
• Flip a coin (n = 2). S = {H, T}, where H = head, T= tail.
P(H) = 1/2 = 0.50 and P(T) = 1/2 = 0.50.
P(H) + P(T) = 0.50 + 0.50 = 1.
• One roll of a ten-sided die (n = 10). S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6, 7, 8, 9}.
Probability of each side occurring is 1/10.
P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + ... + P(9) =1.
• Party that will form the government following the
Canadian federal election. S = {C, L, N, G, B} where C =
Conservative, L = Liberal, N = NDP, G = Green, B = Bloc.
What are P(C), P(L), P (N), P(G), P(B)?
P(C) + P(L) + P(N) + P(G) + P(B) = 1.
Multiple-step experiments
• If an experiment with k steps has n1 possible
outcomes on the first step, n2 possible outcomes
on the second step, etc., then the sample space
has n1 × n2 × n3 × ... × nk sample points (ASW, 143).
• If 3 persons are randomly selected from a large
population with half females and half males,
there are 2 × 2 × 2 = 8 outcomes for the sex of the
persons selected. Each outcome is equally likely.
Third Sample
selection points Probability
Second
selection F (F, F, F) 1/8 = 0.125
First
selection F •
M (F, F, M) 1/8 = 0.125
F • F (F, M, F) 1/8 = 0.125
M •
• M
F
(F, M, M)
(M, F, F)
1/8 = 0.125
1/8 = 0.125
F • (M, F, M)
M M 1/8 = 0.125
• F (M, M, F) 1/8 = 0.125
Selection of 3 persons M
•
from a large population M (M, M, M) 1/8 = 0.125
of half females and half Sum = 1.000
males.
Event
• An event is a collection of sample points (ASW,
152).
• The probability of any event is equal to the sum of
the probabilities of the sample points in the event
(ASW, 153).
• Event of selecting exactly two females (2F).
P (2F) = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 3/8 = 0.375.
This is the sum of the probabilities of the events
FFM, FMF, and MFF.
Results from Econ 224 survey
• Sample of N = 46 students.
• Step one – results organized into four groups by
major: Math (including Actuarial and Statistics),
Business, Economics, and Other.
• Step two – results organized into four groups of
experience level with Excel – None (N), Low (L),
Medium (M), or High (H).
• Number of students reporting each characteristic
reported in a tree diagram.
Step one: Step Two:
Outcome:
Major Excel Skill
N = 46 N=0
Math L=2
(6) M=4
H=0
N=1
Business L=3
MAJOR
(13) M=6
H=3
N=2
Economics L = 12
(24) M=8
H=2
N=0
Other L=1
(3) M=1
Probabilities for Excel skill levels
If each outcome equally likely, P(E) = NE/N where NE is
the number of outcomes in event E and N is the
total number of outcomes.
Probability of selecting a student with low Excel skills
= (2 + 3 + 12 +1)/46 = 18/46 = 0.391
P(High Excel skills) = 6/46 = 0.130
P(No Excel experience) = 3/46 = 0.065
P(Medium Excel experience) = 19/46 = 0.413
Note that 0.065 + 0.391 + 0.413 + 0.130 = 0.999
Relationships of Probability
• Complement of an event
• Addition law – intersection and union
• Mutually exclusive
• Conditional probability
• Independence
• Multiplication law
Complement of an event
• The complement Ac of an event A is the set of
all sample points that are not in event A.
• P(A) + P(Ac) = 1 or P(Ac) = 1 – P(A).
• Examples: The probability that a student in this
class is not an Economics major (E) is 22/46.
P(E) = 24/46 = 0.522
P(Ec) = 1 – 0.522 = 0.478
P(Excel skills not High) = 1 – 0.130 = 0.870
Combining events (ASW, 157-160)
What is the probability that more than one
event has occurred? If there are two events:
Both events could occur – this is referred to as
the intersection of the two events.
At least one of the events could occur – this is
referred to as the union of the two events.
Neither event occurs.
Union of two events
• The union of events A and B is the event containing
all the sample points of either A or B, or both (ASW,
157).
• The notation for the union is P(AB).
• Read this as “probability of A union B” or the
“probability of A or B.”
• The probability of A or B is the sum of the
probabilities of all the sample points that are in either
A or B, making sure that none are counted twice.
Intersection of two events
• The intersection of events A and B is the event
containing only the sample points belonging to
both A and B (ASW, 158).
• The notation for the intersection is P(AB).
• Read this as “probability of A intersection B” or
the “probability of A and B.”
• The probability of A and B is the sum of the
probabilities of all the sample points common to
both A and B.
Addition law (ASW, 158)
P( A B)
P( A B)
P( B)
• The probability of B given A is
P( A B)
P ( B A)
P ( A)
Number of students by major and
Excel skill level
Math (MA) 0 2 4 0 6
Business (B) 1 3 6 3 13
Economics (E) 2 12 8 2 24
Other (O) 0 1 1 1 3
Total 3 18 19 6 46