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Hot Or Not: Disruptive

Technologies To Watch
in 2011

February 17, 2011

Charlene Li
Founder and Partner
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Source: Wordle.net

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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Prioritizing disruptions that matter

User Experience Business Model Ecosystem Value

•Is it easy for •Does it tap new •Does it change
people to use? revenue the flow of value?
•Does it enable streams? •Does it shift
people to •Is it done at a power from one
connect in new lower cost? player to
ways? another?
© 2011 Altimeter Group
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1) Likenomics (credit to Rohit Bhargava)

“How personal relationships, individual opinions,
powerful storytelling and social capital are helping
brands…become more believable.”

Understand the
supply, demand,
and thus, value of
Likes as social
currency

See http://bit.ly/rohit-likenomics for Rohit’s take

© 2011 Altimeter Group
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Likenomics evaluation
 User experience impact - moderate
• People with high social currency will enjoy benefits,
richer experiences, receive psychic income.
• People with low social currency will find ways to get it.
 Business model impact – moderate
• New economics create opportunity for people who
understand Likenomics to leverage gas.
• The cost of accessing social currency will increase, and
raise barriers to entry.
 Ecosystem value impact – none

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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2) Buy 2.0
 Special deals for special people
• Group Buying, Flash Sales, Member Sales, etc.
• Gilt, Ruelala, iDeeli, Facebook Deals
 Local sales and retailers
• Group buying variation: Groupon and Living Social
• In-store check-ins: Shopkick and Checkpoints
 Dynamic pricing
• Off and Away and Swoopo
 Mobile price checking
• Amazon mobile apps, eBay platform
 New payment methods: Square and Facebook Credits

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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How shopping will change

I walk into the store Store knows it’s me

And maps out

planned and
promoted
products

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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Buy 2.0 evaluation

 User experience impact - High
• New ways to buy and connect with each other and
retailers.
 Business model impact – Moderate
• Acquisition costs can increase/decrease substantially
with adoption.
• Increased noise/clutter requires more marketing.
 Ecosystem value impact – Moderate
• New entrants like GroupOn become intermediaries.

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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3) Social Search – Beyond Friends

Social sharing rises
as a search ranking
signal, esp in the
enterprise

Create a social
content hub to gain
traction

Use microformats to
highlight granularity
(e.g. hProduct &
hReview)

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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Social Search evaluation

 User experience impact - Moderate
• Search becomes more useful, relevant to people.
 Business model impact – Moderate
• SEO takes on a different dimension, rewards
companies with social currency, personalized
experiences.
 Ecosystem value impact – Moderate
• New power brokers are social data/profile players who
capture activity data and profiles.
• Google has little of either.

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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4) Big Data
 Social monitoring merges with Web analytics
• HOT: Omniture, Coremetrics/IBM, Webtrends
 Technology like Hadoop makes it easy for
companies to tap “Big Data”
• E.g. New York Times making its archives public
• Twitter archived by Library of Congress
• Facebook Cassandra, Amazon Dynamo, Google
BigTable
 Data visualization tools make it easy to digest
 Balancing privacy and personalization
© 2011 Altimeter Group
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Big Data evaluation

 User experience impact - Low
• Most users won’t directly experience Big Data.
 Business model impact – High
• New businesses and initiatives can be started at very
low cost.
 Ecosystem value impact – Moderate
• Owners of Big Data repositories can assert control,
demand payments for access.

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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5) Enterprise Social Networking

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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Enterprise Social Networking evaluation

 User experience impact – High
• Work gets social, employees get connected to each
other.
 Business model impact – Moderate
• Work gets done faster, cheaper.
• New organizational structures and cultures emerge.
 Ecosystem value impact – Moderate
• Traditional enterprise application players face new,
more nimble entrants.

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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6) Game-ification

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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TurboTax used “games” to encourage

sharing and support

Social design can

enter training,
collaboration,
support, hiring

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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Gamification evaluation
 User experience impact – High
• Experiences get richer, more engaging
 Business model impact – Moderate
• Work gets done faster, cheaper.
• New organizational structures and cultures emerge.
 Ecosystem value impact – Low
• Service providers will remain focused, boutique firms.

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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7) Print extensions

QR Codes

Imagine
images as
Bit.ly codes

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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Print extensions evaluation

 User experience impact – Moderate
• Users get new ways to get information quickly.
• No need to download special software, understand
quirky images.
 Business model impact – Moderate
• Leverage print investment to extend further into buying
process.
• Impacts importance of SEO.
 Ecosystem value impact – Low
• Standards, not new service providers, play a role.

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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Print extensions evaluation

 User experience impact – Moderate
• Users get new power, earn social status, when they
become curators.
 Business model impact – Moderate
• Lower cost of acquisition.
 Ecosystem value impact – Moderate
• Standards, not new service providers, play a role.

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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8) DIY and Co-creation

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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DIY an Co-creation evaluation

 User experience impact – Moderate
• Users become more loyal/engaged with organizations
that invite them in.
• Develop a sense of shared ownership in the success of
the organization.
 Business model impact – High
• Reduced merchandising costs.
• Reduced marketing costs due to viral loop.
 Ecosystem value impact – Low
• Mostly home-grown, internal development.

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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9) Curation

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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Curation evaluation
 User experience impact – Moderate
• Users gain new power as market influencers.
 Business model impact – Low
• Low unless tapped as part of Co-creation initiative.
 Ecosystem value impact – Moderate
• Power shifts to users who steal attention and loyalty
from established players.

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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Not Hot Yet in 2011: Augmented Reality

When scanning tech

improves, will get hot

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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Augmented Reality evaluation

 User experience impact – Moderate
• Still hard to use, limited availability.
• But when available, creates unique, new experience.
 Business model impact – Low
• Unclear if new experiences lower costs, raise revenues.
 Ecosystem value impact – Low
• Few intermediaries emerge in new experiences.
• Usually home-grown.

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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To Watch: Quora – Quality Q&A?

Monitor your brand

Engage by being helpful

© 2011 Altimeter Group
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Summary of disruptions
User Experience Business Model Value Networks
Likenomics Moderate Moderate Low
Buy 2.0 High Moderate Moderate
Social Search Moderate Moderate Moderate
Big Data Low High Moderate
Enterprise Soc Net High Moderate Moderate
Gamification High Moderate Low
Print extensions Moderate Moderate Low
DIY/Co-creation Moderate High Low
Curation Moderate Low Moderate
Augmented reality Moderate Low Low

© 2011 Altimeter Group

 Bonus #1: Transparency

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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Bonus #2: Leadership

How to be out
of control and still
in command

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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Preparing for disruption

It is not the strongest of
the species that
survives, nor the most
intelligent that survives.
It is the one that is most
adaptable to change.

- Charles Darwin

© 2011 Altimeter Group

 Charlene Li
n e @ a ltime te rg r o up.com
charle
g
charleneli.com/blo
Twitter: charleneli

r s lid e s, s en d a n email to
Fo
@ a ltim e terg ro up .com
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