CHAPTER 3

Quantitative Demand Analysis

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 Learning Objectives
1. Apply various elasticities of demand as a quantitative tool
to forecast changes in revenues, prices, and/or units sold.
2. Illustrate the relationship between the elasticity of demand
and total revenues.
3. Discuss three factors that influence whether the demand
for a given product is relatively elastic or inelastic.
4. Explain the relationship between marginal revenue and the
own price elasticity of demand.
5. Show how to determine elasticities from linear and log-
linear demand functions.
6. Explain how regression analysis may be used to estimate
demand functions, and how to interpret and use the output
of a regression. © 2017 by McGraw-Hill Education. All Rights Reserved. 2
 The Elasticity Concept

The Elasticity Concept

• Elasticity
– A measure of the responsiveness of one variable
to changes in another variable; the percentage
change in one variable that arises due to a given
percentage change in another variable.

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 The Elasticity Concept

The Elasticity Concept

• The
  elasticity between two variables, and , is
mathematically expressed as:

• When a functional relationship exists, like , the

elasticity is:

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 The Elasticity Concept

Measurement Aspects of Elasticity

•  Important aspects of the elasticity:
– Sign of the relationship:
• Positive
• Negative
– Absolute value of elasticity magnitude relative to
unity:
• is highly responsive to changes in .
• is slightly responsive to changes in .

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 Own Price Elasticity of Demand

Own Price Elasticity of Demand

• Own
  price elasticity of demand (Co giãn giá của
cầu)
– Measures the responsiveness of a percentage change
in the quantity demanded of good X to a percentage
change in its price.

– Sign: negative by law of demand.

– Magnitude of absolute value relative to unityx:
• : Elastic.
• : Inelastic.
• : Unitary elastic.

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 Own Price Elasticity of Demand

Linear Demand, Elasticity, and Revenue

Price   Linear Inverse Demand:
$40 Demand:
 • Revenue = $
$35
• Elasticity:
$30 • Conclusion:
Conclusion: Demand
Demand is
is inelastic.
unitary
elastic. elastic.
$25

$20 Observation: Elasticity

varies along a linear
$15 (inverse) demand curve

$10

$5
Demand

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Quantity

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 Own Price Elasticity of Demand

Total Revenue Test

• When demand is elastic:
– A price increase (decrease) leads to a decrease
(increase) in total revenue.
• When demand is inelastic:
– A price increase (decrease) leads to an increase
(decrease) in total revenue.
• When demand is unitary elastic:
– Total revenue is maximized.

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 Own Price Elasticity of Demand

Perfectly Elastic and Inelastic Demand

Price
Demand

 𝐸𝑄 𝑑
, 𝑃𝑋
=0
𝑋

Perfectly Demand
elastic  𝐸𝑄 =−∞
𝑑
𝑋
, 𝑃𝑋

Perfectly Inelastic Quantity

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 Own Price Elasticity of Demand

Factors Affecting the Own Price

Elasticity
• Three factors can impact the own price
elasticity of demand:
– Availability of consumption substitutes
– Time/duration of purchase horizon
– Expenditure share of consumers’ budgets

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 Own Price Elasticity of Demand

Marginal Revenue and the Own

Price Elasticity of Demand
• The
  marginal revenue can be derived from a
market demand curve.
– Marginal revenue measures the additional revenue
due to a change in output.
• This link relates marginal revenue to the own
price elasticity of demand as follows:

– When then, .
– When then, .
– When then, .
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 Own Price Elasticity of Demand

Demand and Marginal Revenue

Price
6
Ela
sti Unitary
c
 𝑃

MR
Ine
las
tic

Demand

0 1 3 6 Quantity

Marginal Revenue (MR)

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 Cross-Price Elasticity

Cross-Price Elasticity
•  Cross-price elasticity (Độ Co Giãn Chéo Của Lượng Cầu Theo Giá )
– Measures responsiveness of a percent change in
demand for good X due to a percent change in the
price of good Y.

– If , then and are substitutes.

– If , then and are complements.

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 Cross-Price Elasticity

Cross-Price Elasticity in Action

• Suppose
  it is estimated that the cross-price
elasticity of demand between clothing and
food is -0.18. If the price of food is projected
to increase by 10 percent, by how much will
demand for clothing change?

– That is, demand for clothing is expected to decline

by 1.8 percent when the price of food increases 10
percent.

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 Cross-Price Elasticity

Cross-Price Elasticity
• Cross-price
  elasticity is important for firms
selling multiple products.
– Price changes for one product impact demand for
other products.
• Assessing the overall change in revenue from
a price change for one good when a firm sells
two goods is:

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 Cross-Price Elasticity

Cross-Price Elasticity in Action

• Suppose
  a restaurant earns $4,000 per week in
revenues from hamburger sales (X) and $2,000
per week from soda sales (Y).
• If the own price elasticity for burgers is and the
cross-price elasticity of demand between sodas
and hamburgers is , what would happen to the
firm’s total revenues if it reduced the price of
hamburgers by 1 percent?

– That is, lowering the price of hamburgers 1 percent

increases total revenue by $100.
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 Income Elasticity

Income Elasticity
•  Income elasticity(Hệ số co giãn thu nhập của nhu cầu)
– Measures responsiveness of a percent change in
demand for good X due to a percent change in
income.

– If , then is a normal good.

– If , then is an inferior good.

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 Income Elasticity

Income Elasticity in Action

• Suppose
  that the income elasticity of demand for
transportation is estimated to be 1.80. If income
is projected to decrease by 15 percent,
• what is the impact on the demand for
transportation?

– Demand for transportation will decline by 27 percent.

• is transportation a normal or inferior good?
– Since demand decreases as income declines,
transportation is a normal good.

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 Other Elasticities

Other Elasticities
• Own advertising elasticity of demand for good
X is the ratio of the percentage change in the
consumption of X to the percentage change in
advertising spent on X.
• Cross-advertising elasticity between goods X
and Y would measure the percentage change in
the consumption of X that results from a 1
percent change in advertising toward Y.

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 Obtaining Elasticities From Demand Functions

Elasticities for Linear Demand

Functions
• From
  a linear demand function, we can easily
compute various elasticities.
• Given a linear demand function:

– Own price elasticity: .

– Cross price elasticity: .
– Income elasticity: .

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 Obtaining Elasticities From Demand Functions

Elasticities for Linear Demand

Functions In Action
•The  daily demand for Invigorated PED shoes is estimated
to be:

Suppose good X sells at $25 a pair, good Y sells at $35,

the company utilizes 50 units of advertising, and
average consumer income is $20,000. Calculate the own
price, cross-price and income elasticities of demand.
– units.
– Own price elasticity: .
– Cross-price elasticity: .
– Income elasticity: .
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 Obtaining Elasticities From Demand Functions

Elasticities for Nonlinear Demand

Functions
• One
  non-linear demand function is the log-
linear demand function:

– Own price elasticity: .

– Cross price elasticity: .
– Income elasticity: .

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 Obtaining Elasticities From Demand Functions

Elasticities for Nonlinear Demand

Functions In Action
•An  analyst for a major apparel company estimates that the
demand for its raincoats is given by

where denotes the daily amount of rainfall and the

level of advertising on good Y. What would be the
impact on demand of a 10 percent increase in the daily
amount of rainfall?
. So, .

A 10 percent increase in rainfall will lead to a 30 percent

increase in the demand for raincoats.
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 Regression Analysis

Regression Analysis
• How does one obtain information on the
demand function?
– Published studies
– Hire consultant
– Statistical technique called regression analysis
using data on quantity, price, income and other
important variables.

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 Regression Analysis

Regression Line and Least Squares

Regression
•• True
  (or population) regression model
– unknown population intercept parameter.
– unknown population slope parameter.
– random error term with mean zero and standard deviation .
• Least squares regression line

– least squares estimate of the unknown parameter .

– least squares estimate of the unknown parameter.
• The parameter estimates and , represent the values of and
that result in the smallest sum of squared errors between a
line and the actual data.
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 Regression Analysis

Excel and Least Squares Estimates

SUMMARY
OUTPUT
  Estimated Demand:
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.87
R Square 0.75 𝑎 ^ =1631.47
Adjusted R Square 0.72 ^ 
𝑏=−2.60
Standard Error 112.22
Observations 10.00

ANOVA
  Df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 301470.89 301470.89 23.94 0.0012
Residual 8 100751.61 12593.95
Total 9 402222.50     

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 1631.47 243.97 6.69 0.0002 1068.87 2194.07
Price -2.60 0.53 -4.89 0.0012 -3.82 -1.37

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 Regression Analysis

Evaluating Statistical Significance

•• Standard
  error
– Measure of how much each estimated estimate varies in regressions
based on the same true demand model using different data.
• 95 Percent Confidence interval rule of thumb

• t-statistics rule of thumb

- The t-statistic of a parameter estimate is the ratio of the
value of the parameter estimate to
its standard error

– When , we are 95 percent confident the true parameter is in the

regression is not zero.

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 Regression Analysis

Excel and Least Squares Estimates

SUMMARY
OUTPUT

Regression Statistics   (^
𝑠𝑒 𝑎)=243.97
Multiple R 0.87 𝑠𝑒 ^
  (𝑏)=0.53
R Square 0.75
Adjusted R Square 0.72   , the intercept is different
Standard Error 112.22 from zero.
Observations 10.00   , the intercept is different
from zero.
ANOVA
  Df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 301470.89 301470.89 23.94 0.0012
Residual 8 100751.61 12593.95
Total 9 402222.50     

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 1631.47 243.97 6.69 0.0002 1068.87 2194.07
Price -2.60 0.53 -4.89 0.0012 -3.82 -1.37

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 Regression Analysis

Evaluating the Overall Fit of the

Regression Line
•  R-Square
– Also called the coefficient of determination.
– Fraction of the total variation in the dependent
variable that is explained by the regression.

– Ranges between 0 and 1.

• Values closer to 1 indicate “better” fit.

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 Regression Analysis

Evaluating the Overall Fit of the

Regression Line
•  Adjusted R-Square
– A version of the R-square that penalize
researchers for having few degrees of freedom.

– is total observations.
– is the number of estimated coefficients.
– is the degrees of freedom for the regression.

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 Regression Analysis

Evaluating the Overall Fit of the

Regression Line
• The F- Statistic
• A measure of the total variation explained by
the regression relative to the total unexplained
variation.
– The greater the F-statistic, the better the overall
regression fit.
– Equivalently, the P-value is another measure of the
F-statistic.
• Lower P-values are associated with better overall
regression fit.
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 Regression Analysis

Excel and Least Squares Estimates

SUMMARY
OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.87
R Square 0.75
Adjusted R Square 0.72
Standard Error 112.22
Observations 10.00

ANOVA
  Df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 301470.89 301470.89 23.94 0.0012
Residual 8 100751.61 12593.95
Total 9 402222.50     

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 1631.47 243.97 6.69 0.0002 1068.87 2194.07
Price -2.60 0.53 -4.89 0.0012 -3.82 -1.37

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 Regression Analysis

Regression for Nonlinear Functions

and Multiple Regression
• Regression
  techniques can also be applied to
the following settings:
– Nonlinear functional relationships:
• Nonlinear regression example:

– Functional relationships with multiple variables:

• Multiple regression example:

or

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 Regression Analysis

Excel and Least Squares Estimates

SUMMARY
OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.89
R Square 0.79
Adjusted R Square 0.69
Standard Error 9.18
Observations 10.00

ANOVA
  Df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 1920.99 640.33 7.59 0.182
Residual 6 505.91 84.32
Total 9 2426.90     

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 135.15 20.65 6.54 0.0006 84.61 185.68
Price -0.14 0.06 -2.41 0.0500 -0.29 0.00
Advertising 0.54 0.64 0.85 0.4296 -1.02 2.09
Distance -5.78 1.26 -4.61 0.0037 -8.86 -2.71

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