Some tools :-

Qualitative
 Job Analysis
 Delphi Method
 Nominal Group Technique
 Scenario Planning

Quantitative
 Manpower Inventory Analysis
 Productivity Analysis
 Time Study/ Method Study
 Forecasting
 Correlation/ Regression Analysis
 Trend Analysis – Moving Average
 Seasonal Variation
 Exponential Smoothing
 Markov Chain Analysis
 Job Characteristics Model

• Skill Variety : Degree to which job requires a variety of activities, skills

and talents

• Task Identity: Degree to which job requires completion of a “whole”

and identifiable piece of work

• Task Significance :Degree to which job has an impact on other people

• Autonomy : Degree to which job provides freedom in structuring and

scheduling work

• Feedback : Degree to which job results in obtaining direct and clear

information about job performance
Job Analysis Methodology
• Diaries and logs
• Job analysis interviews – SME groups – 5 to 10 members
• Critical Incident Techniques
• Repertory Grid- The names of people are written on cards,
separated into 2 piles – one for good performers and one
for poor
• Checklist/Inventories
• PAQ
• Hay System
• Behaviorally anchored Rating scale (BAR)
• Competency based Approach
METHODS OF JOB ANALYSIS: Critical Incidents
method

• Trained jobholders with experience are asked to identify

key dimensions of their job

• Specific critical incidents which relate to success of job

or job failure are enumerated

• The incidents are ranked based on importance

• They guide in HR planning for job specifications

Position Analysis Questionnaire

• PAQ has 194 items

• Categories:
• Information Input
• Mental Processes
• Work Output
• Relationship with others
• Job context
• Job Characteristic
 Mental Process
Example of PAQ
Information Processing Activities

In this section are various human operations involving the ‘processing’ of information or
data. Rate each of the following items in terms of how important the activity is to the
completion of the job.

Code Importance to this job

N Does not apply
1 Very minor
2 Low
3 Average
4 High
5 Extreme

_________ Combining information (combining, synthesizing, or integrating

information or data from two or more sources to establish new facts,
hypotheses, theories, or a more complete body of related information, for
example, an economist using information from various sources to predict
future economic conditions, a pilot flying aircraft, a judge trying a case etc.)
_________ Analyzing information or data
_________ Compiling
_________ Coding/ Decoding
_________ Transcribing
_________ Other information processing activities (specify)
METHODS OF JOB ANALYSIS: The HAY System

• Used extensively for compensation and organizational analysis

• Three key factors to analyze each job:

-Know How
-Problem Solving
-Accountability

• Points are assigned to each factor for level of knowledge required

Behaviorally Anchored Rating Scales

• Used for performance appraisal and job analysis

• Each job is analyzed and divided into small number of key dimensions

• Behavioral statements are developed for each dimension

• Statements range from examples of superior performance to unsuccessful

performance

• Anchoring the statements by assigning numerical values

• Provides a qualitative and quantitative comparison of jobs

BAR

Participation and contribution to team Projects

Make an extra effort and put in extra time to help team finish a project

Initiate team discussion on how to solve problems

Participate in problem solving by sharing good ideas

Friendly and cooperative while working with others

Socialize while other team members are working

Position Analysis Questionnaire

• PAQ has 194 items

• Categories:
• Information Input
• Mental Processes
• Work Output
• Relationship with others
• Job context
• Job Characteristic
Job Design Continuum
Self-directed
Teams

Increasing
Empowerment reliance on
employee’s
contribution and
Enrichment increasing
responsibility
accepted by the
employee
Enlargement

Specialization

Job Expansion
What is job crafting?

• Employees (or job crafters in this case) actively changing their formal
job designs to better fit their motives, strengths and passions
Delphi Method
 This method calls for selection of a panel
of experts either from within or outside
the organization, whose comments are
crystallized from a series of questionnaire
responses and then used as the basis to
forecast.
Use of Qualitative Models for better
managerial judgment
 Selection of co-coordinator and a panel of experts
 Coordinator circulates questions in writing to each such
expert
 Experts write their observations
 Coordinator edits the observations and summarizes
 On the basis of his/her summary the coordinators develops
a new set of questionnaire and circulates those among
experts
 Expert answer such new set of questions
 Coordinator repeats the process till such time s/he is able
to synthesize from the opinion of the experts.
Nominal Group Method
 Under Delphi technique experts are not
allowed to discuss among themselves, for
assessing the questions, under nominal
group method experts are given the
opportunity to discuss among themselves.
Scenario Planning
 Shell

• Based on scenario planning, it sold and leased

back tankers and reduced its position in
marginal oil fields

• Its strategy worked when the Oil Shock hit:

Shell moved from #11 oil company in 1970 to
#4 in 1975
 Creating HR Scenarios
• In its purist sense scenario planning tries to
imagine the future at its most unpredictable.

• If a debate on it can be instigated it may well

benefit the organization.
 Consider possible HR Scenarios
• If our company became a global player, would
we be able to manage it?

• Where are the main sources of competitive

advantage through people? How can we
strengthen them? What if they are lost
through the attrition of key staff?
 Consider possible HR Scenarios
• Where in the organization are the main sources
of knowledge as a competitive weapon? Could
we manage them better? What if they were
jeopardized through radical change?

• What if we had a pan-organizational technology

system in place for dealing with all aspects of
human resource management – to enable web-
enabled training, to extend flexible benefits and
to contribute towards career management? How
would this affect the management style?
 Consider possible HR Scenarios
• Could we cope if key members of the board
left? What would we do?

• What if we moved from centralized to

decentralized structures (or vice versa)? How
would this affect the way we managed the
organization?
 For each scenario identify a range of
HR outcomes…
• Identify
– success and disaster possibilities
– Difference between current position of
organization and desired future position
 Scenario Planning

Sales Optimistic

Most Likely

Adverse

Now t+1 year t+2 years t+3 years Time

Job Element 1 2 3 4 5 Performance Rating

(A) Type Letter 8 10 9 21 11 120%

(B) Type envelope address 2 3 2 1 3 105%

(C) Stamp, seal and sort
envelopes 2 1 5 2 1 110%
1. Average Cycle Time              

For A 9.5 min

For B 2.2 min

For C 1.5 min

= Average Cycle time* Performance
2. Compute Normal Time for each element     Rating

For A 11.4 min

For B 2.31 min

An Example of time Study
For C 1.65 min

3. Total Normal time 15.36 min

= Total Normal Time /
4. Standard Time 18.07 min   (1-Allowance Factor)
 Work Sampling

No. of observations Activity

485 On the phone or
meeting with a welfare
client
126 Idle
62 Personal time
23 Discussions with
supervisor
137 Filing, meeting, and
computer data entry
833  

The analyst concludes that all but 188 observations (126 idle and 62
personal ) are work related.

Idle time 22.5% (=188/833)

Time Series Analysis
 Trend Analysis
 Study a firm’s past employment needs over a
period of years to predict future needs.

 Changes in Productivity
 Moving Average Method
You are required to forecast manpower
Manpower Requirement for 2001
Year Level/Data

1995 500
Fm = (500+600+800+1000+1100+ 1300)/6
1996 600
= 883
1997 800 Using 4 period moving average, we drop the
data of 1995 and 1996
1998 1000
Fm = (800+1000+1100+ 1300)/4
1999 1100
= 1050
2000 1300

For 1995, 1996, 1997 if we assign weight 1 , for 1998 wt 2, 1999 wt 3, 2000 wt 4
Fm =1(500)+1(600)+1(800)+2(1000)+3(1100)+4(1300)/ ∑w
= 1030
Exponential Smoothing
 New Forecast =
 Last period’s forecast + α (Last period’s
Actual demand – Last period’s forecast)

0≤α (smoothing constant) ≤1

Quantitative Planning Tools [Contd.]
 Ratio Analysis
 Sales volume & number of employees needed

 Scatter Plot
 No. of beds in the hospital & Number of nurses
Quantitative Planning Tools [Contd.]
 Using computers to forecast personnel
requirements: Computerized forecast
 Excel/SPSS/ SAS…

 Forecast minimum, maximum and probable

Wastage Analysis
Wastage?
 Voluntary Retirement
 Normal Retirement
 Resignations
 Deaths and dismissals
Analysis of Manpower Supply
 Wastage Analysis
 Labour Turnover Index
 Stability Index
 Skills Inventories
Labour Turnover Index
 At the beginning of year a firm has 250
employees, while at the end it has 230. Assume
no recruitment has been made in between.
Compute the labour turnover index.
 Labour Turnover =
(No. of employees leaving/ average no. of
employees employed)*100
Average no. of employees: (250+230)/2 = 240
=> 20/240*100 =8.33%
Stability Index

Stability Index = (No. with more than 1 year

service now/ Total employed one year
ago)*100
Skills Inventory
 Name of employee
 Listing (inventory) of job related skills
 Training/ experience which could prove
useful in future assignments
Preparation of Transition Probability Matrix…
Employee Transfer between classifications during a period
             
Divisional
1995/ 1996 Assembler Machinist II Machinist I Manager “Losses" Total
Assembler 1329 68 5 0 430 1832
Machinist II 2 345 28 0 3 378
Machinist I 1 2 26 0 6 35
Divisional
Manager 0 0 0 14 4 18

Total 1332 415 59 14 443

Estimated Transition Probability Matrix
Divisional
  Assembler Machinist II Machinist I Manager "Losses"
Assembler 0.73 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.23
Machinist II 0.01 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.01
Machinist I 0.03 0.06 0.74 0.00 0.17
Divisional
Manager 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.22

Losses = Retirement, Death, Voluntary Termination

Using Transition Probability Matrix…
In 2012….
Current Divisional
Employment Assembler Machinist II Machinist I Manager
1904 0.73 0.04 0.00 0.00
375 0.01 0.91 0.07 0.00
35 0.03 0.06 0.74 0.00
16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78
In 2013…
Divisional
Forecast Assembler Machinist II Machinist I Manager
  1381 71 5 0
  2 342 28 0
  1 2 26 0
  0 0 0 12
Total 1384 415 59 12