Ensituximab Forecast in CRC

Prepared By : Kapil Tilwani

March 1,2021
Table of Content

 Section 1 : Executive Summary

 Section 2 : Forecast Structure

 Section 3 : Forecast Summary

Executive Summary

Peak revenue for the Ensituximab is expected to reach $320M in 2030 with Japan, UK and China accounting for
$95M (~30%), $37M (~10%) and $193M (~60%) respectively in base scenario

Ensituximab is expected to attain a peak market share of 10% in third line setting, while if approved in
combination, can attain a higher market share due to better efficacy results and reduced side effects

Diagnosis rate, Biomarker test and Pricing are the most important levers to opportunity, and drives the major
difference in the competitive landscape
Table of Content

 Section 1 : Executive Summary

 Section 2 : Forecast Structure

 Section 3 : Forecast Summary

Refactory patients with prior treatment in at least two lines,
containing MUC5AC are the most important target pool for
Ensituximab
Ensituximab Forecast Flow
Diagnosis Rate % Patients in 1L Treatment
CRC Incidence by (JP: 70%, Late Stage Rate
Diagnosed Patients Patients in Late Stage (mCRC) 1L Treated Patients
Addressable Market

Geography UK: 75%, (50%) (90%)

CN : 65%) 1L Relapsed/
Refractory Rate
3L Treatment 2L Relapsed/ 2L Treatment (75%)
Rate Refractory Rate
3L Treated Patients 2L to 3L Progressed Patients 2L Treated Patients 1L to 2L Progressed Patients
(75%) Rate (60%) (85%)

% Patients % Patients with

without MSI-H MUC5AC Patients with MUC5AC
(95%)
Patients without MSI-H (60%) (Eligible Population)
The R/r rates are
Market Share also adjusted by
Shares &

Access of Ensituximab the progression

Access

Rate in 3L (10%) delay from one

Revenue Generating Patients Patients on Ensituximab LOT to other
(JP/UK: 90%,
China : 60%)

Adherence Dosage per

Revenue Conversion

Rate Patient
(95%) Adherence Adjusted Patients Total Dosage Lower Payer access in
(1 dose/
China and factor of
2 week)
Gross Price per Dose division of population by
(JP: ~20K, UK:~18.5K, China: ~18) Urban/Rural region is
accounted in access
GTN
Net Revenue (in $M) Gross Revenue (in $M)
(90%)

Note: The inputs mentioned are of base scenario. Metric with single input denotes that inputs are same across all the three geographies
Table of Content

 Section 1 : Executive Summary

 Section 2 : Forecast Structure

 Section 3 : Forecast Summary

Peak opportunity for Ensituximab in base scenario is $320M, where
China contributes majority (~60%) of the revenue due to larger
patient pool
Net Revenue By Geography (Base Scenario)

$400M

$350M
$314M $316M $318M $320M
$297M $305M
$300M $277M
Net Revenue (in $B)

$250M
$189M $190M $192M $193M
$179M $184M
$200M $167M
$162M
$150M
$98M $31M $32M $32M $32M $32M
$100M $28M $30M

$50M $16M $94M $95M

$26M $82M $88M $91M $93M $94M
$16M $48M
$M $M $3M
$M $8M
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Japan UK China Total

Japan peak opportunities for Ensituximab ranges from ~$40M to
$220M, depending on the scenario
Net Revenue By Scenarios - Japan
$250M

$218M $219M $221M $222M

$212M
$206M
$200M
$192M
Net Revenue (in $B)

$150M

$113M
$100M $95M
$91M $93M $94M $94M
$88M
$82M

$50M $48M
$32M $34M $35M $36M $37M $37M $37M
$19M
$8M
$3M
$M$M $M
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Pessimistic Base Optimistic

UK peak opportunities for Ensituximab ranges from ~$15M to
$75M, depending on the scenario
Net Revenue By Scenarios - UK
$80M
$74M $74M $75M $75M
$72M
$70M $70M
$65M
$60M
Net Revenue (in $B)

$50M

$40M
$38M

$31M $32M $32M $32M $32M

$30M $30M
$28M

$20M
$16M
$11M $12M $12M $12M $12M $13M $13M
$10M
$6M
$3M
$1M
$M$M $M
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Pessimistic Base Optimistic

China peak opportunities for Ensituximab ranges from ~$75M to
~$470M, depending on the scenario
Net Revenue By Scenarios - China
$500M
$458M $461M $465M $468M
$450M $446M
$434M
$400M $405M

$350M
Net Revenue (in $B)

$300M

$250M
$237M
$200M $190M $192M $193M
$179M $184M $189M
$167M
$150M

$100M $98M
$63M $67M $69M $71M $72M $72M $73M
$50M
$37M
$16M
$6M
$M$M $M
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Pessimistic Base Optimistic

Shares and Treatment Rate seems to be two biggest levers for Net
Revenue in Japan
Waterfall Analysis – Japan (Peak Year, 2030)

Waterfall Chart
$250M

$200M
$65M

$4M $8M
$150M
Net Revenue ($M)

$24M
$20M $222M
$100M $7M
$28M
$2M $5M
$50M $8M $12M
$3M $95M

$37M
$M
Pessimistic Diagnosis Treatment Share Price GTN Others Base Diagnosis Treatment Share Price GTN Others Optimistic
Rate Rate Rate Rate

Base Fall Rise

Shares and Treatment Rate seems to be two biggest levers for Net
Revenue in UK
Waterfall Analysis – UK (Peak Year, 2030)

Waterfall Chart
$80M

$70M
$22M
$60M

$1M $3M
$50M
Net Revenue ($M)

$8M
$40M
$7M $75M
$2M
$30M
$9M
$1M $2M
$20M
$4M
$1M $3M $32M
$10M
$13M
$M
Pessimistic Diagnosis Treatment Share Price GTN Others Base Diagnosis Treatment Share Price GTN Others Optimistic
Rate Rate Rate Rate

Base Fall Rise

Shares and Treatment Rate seems to be two biggest levers for Net
Revenue in China
Waterfall Analysis – China (Peak Year, 2030)

Waterfall Chart
$500M

$450M

$400M $145M
$350M
$8M $17M
$300M
Net Revenue ($M)

$50M
$250M
$40M $468M
$200M $15M
$61M
$150M
$3M $11M
$100M $16M $24M $193M
$6M
$50M
$73M
$M
Pessimistic Diagnosis Treatment Share Price GTN Others Base Diagnosis Treatment Share Price GTN Others Optimistic
Rate Rate Rate Rate

Base Fall Rise