Simulation Models as a

Research Method
Professor Alexander Settles
 Research Methodology - Simulation
• Simulation as a research tool
• Research in simulation
• Focus here is on simulation of discrete
event dynamic systems
 Social Simulation
• Most social science research uses some kind of theory or model
– Theories are generally stated in textual form
– But some are represented as equations
– Sometimes carry out experiments on artificial social systems that
would be impossible or unethical to perform on human populations

• One advantage: must think through your assumptions

– Clarity and precision; each parameter needs a value
– All the detail of the model can be inspected by others

• Disadvantage: data adequate for estimating all parameter values

may be hard to get
 Sociology and Complexity
• The physical world is full of systems that are (almost) linear

• But (human) societies have quite unpredictable features

– Their characteristics at any one time are affected by their past
histories (‘path dependence’)
– E.g., adoption of 1 of a pair of alternative technologies by a
society can be greatly influenced by minor contingencies
about who chooses which technology early on
• Human societies, institutions and organizations are complex
systems
– The behavior of the system as a whole can’t be understood in
terms of the separate behaviors of its parts
– Contrasts with reductionist physical sciences
 Simulation as a Research Tool
• Why simulation?
– An analytical approximation has been developed
to model some system performance measure.
– The development of the approximation requires
simplifying assumptions/approximations.
– The conjecture is that the analytical model is still a
reasonable representation of the real system.
– Simulation is being used to support or refute this
conjecture.
 Simulation as a Research Tool
• Are the assumptions applied in the simulation
clearly stated?
– Distributions used.
– Operational protocols, e.g., blocking, etc.
– Correlation?
– Can you simulate the same system?
• Steady State vs. Terminating
– Number of runs
– Length of runs
• Some models take a long time to “settle down”
 Simulation as a Research Tool
• Verification & validation
– Mainly applies to studying a real system or a
detailed representation
– How was this conducted?
• Results compared to an existing system?
• Comparisons made to existing analytical results?
• Extreme cases tested?
 Simulation as a Research Tool
• Experimental design
– Experimental design?
– Random systems?
• The importance of this depends on the
way the simulation was used
– If simulating to understand a system and
gain insight, these issues become more
important
 Methods of simulation
• System dynamics
– Behavior of a system with complex causality
and timing
– System of intersecting, circular causal loops
– Stocks that accumulate and dissipate over
time
– Flows that specify rates within system
– Inputs to a system of interconnected causal
loops, stocks, and flows produce system
outcomes
System Dynamics Research Tools
• Add causal loops
• Change mean of flow
rates
• Change variance of
flow rates
 System Dynamics Research
Questions
• How do organizations undergo
fundamental change?
• When do small interruptions create major
catastrophes?
• What conditions create system instability?
 NK fitness landscapes
• Speed and effectiveness of adaptation of
modular systems with tight versus loose
coupling to an optimal point
• System of N nodes, K coupling between
nodes
• Fitness landscape that maps performance
of all combinations
 NK Fitness landscape
• (S, V, f) :
• S: set of admissible
solutions,
• V : S → 2S function,
:neighborhood
• S → IR: fitness
function.
 Key Assumptions
• Adaptation via incremental moves and
long jumps
• Optimization
• Adaptation of a modular system using
search strategies (i.e., long jumps,
incremental moves) to find an optimal
point on a fitness landscape
 NK fitness landscapes
• Vary N and K
• Change adaptation moves
• Add a “map” of the landscape
• Create an environmental jolt
 NK fitness landscapes
• How long does it take to find an optimal
point (e.g., high-performing strategy)?
• What is the performance of the optimal
point?
• What is the optimal strategic complexity?
• How does cognition improve experiential
learning?
 Genetic algorithms
• Adaptation of a population of agents (e.g.,
organizations) via simple learning to an
optimal agent form
 Genetic algorithms
• Adaptation of a population of agents (e.g.,
organizations) via simple learning to an
optimal agent form
• Population of agents with genes
• Evolutionary adaptation (v-s-r)
• Variation via mutation (mistakes) and
crossover (recombination)
• Selection via fitness (performance)
• Retention via copying selected agents
 Theoretical Logic
• Optimization
• Adaptation of a population of agents using
an evolutionary process toward an optimal
agent form
 Research Questions
• How does adaptive learning occur within
bargaining?
• How does organizational learning affect
the evolution of a population of
organizations?
• What affects the rate of adaptation (or
learning or change)?
• When and/or does an optimal form
emerge?
Genetic algorithms
 Cellular automata
• Emergence of macro
patterns from micro
interactions via spatial
processes (e.g.,
competition, diffusion)
in a population of
agents
 Cellular automata
• Population of spatially arrayed and semi-
intelligent agents
• Agents use rules (local and global) for
interaction, some based on spatial
processes
• Neighborhood of agents where local rules
apply
 Research Questions
• How does the pattern emerge and
change?
• How fast does a pattern emerge?
• How do competition and legitimation affect
density dependence?
 Stochastic processes
• One or more processes by which system
operates
• One or more stochastic sources (e.g.,
process elements)
• Probablistic distributions for each
stochastic source
 Definition
• A stochastic process is one whose
behavior is non-deterministic in that a
system's subsequent state is determined
both by the process's predictable actions
and by a random element.
• Manufacturing process
• Finance – asset pricing – Markov chain
 Research Questions
• What is the relationship between
exploration and exploitation?
• What is the optimal degree of structure?