tHE THEORY OF

HURRICANES
THE THEORY OF HURRICANES
Intense synoptic-scale cyclones in the tropics are
called tropical cyclones. As for all cyclones,
tropical cyclones have low pressure in the cyclone
center near sea level. Also, the low-altitude winds
rotate cyclonically (counterclockwise in the N.
Hemisphere) around the storm and spiral in
towards the center. Tropical cyclones are called
hurricanes over the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of
Mexico, and eastern Pacific Oceans.
They are called typhoons over the western Pacific. Over the Indian Ocean
and near Australia they are called cyclones. Although this chapter is
entitled “Hurricanes”, the concepts apply to all tropical cyclones. Hurricanes
differ from mid-latitude cyclones in that hurricanes do not have fronts.
Hurricanes have warm cores while mid-latitude cyclones have cold cores.
Hurricanes can persist two to three times longer than typical mid-latitude
cyclones. To help explain this behavior, we start by describing hurricane
structure.
THE MATURE HURRICANE: A NATURAL CARNOT
ENGINE
About 80 rotating circulations known generically as
tropical cyclones form over the tropical oceans each
year. Of these, roughly 60% reach an intensity
(maximum winds in excess of 32 m s- 1) that qualifies
them as hurricanes, a term applied only in the Atlantic
and eastern Pacific. (Similar storms in other parts of the
world go by different names.) An excellent review of the
climatology and observed characteristics of these
storms is provided by Anthes (1982). Here we use the
term hurricane in place of the generic term tropical
cyclone.
THE MATURE HURRICANE: A NATURAL CARNOT
ENGINE
The mature hurricane may be idealized as an ax symmetric vortex in
hydrostatic and rotational balance. The cyclonic azimuthally flow reaches its
maximum intensity near the surface and decreases slowly upward, becoming
anticyclone near the top of the storm, roughly 15 km above the surface. This
flow configuration corresponds to a warm core structure with maximum
temperature perturbations on isobaric surfaces well in excess of 10°C, highly
concentrated at high levels near the center of the vortex. The radius at which
the azimuthally winds peak ranges from 10 to 100 km near the surface and
generally increases with height. Inside the radius of maximum winds the
core is nearly in solid-body rotation, while outside the core the winds fall off
gradually with radius, obeying approximately an r- 1/2 law. No low-level
circulation can be detected outside a finite radius ranging from 100 to 1000
km. While the geometric size of hurricanes ranges over an order of
magnitude, their intensity, as measured by maximum wind speeds or central
pressure deficit, bears no perceptible relation to their size (Merrill 1984)
THE THEORY OF HURRICANES
The hurricane Carnot cycle. Air
begins spiraling in toward the storm
center at
point a, acquiring entropy from the
ocean surface at fixed temperature
T~. It then ascends adiabatically
from point c, flowing out near the
storm top to some large radius,
denoted symbolically by point o. The
excess entropy is lost by export or by
electromagnetic to space between o
and o’ at a much lower temperature
To.
The cycle is closed by integrating
along an absolute vortex line between o’ and a. The curves c-o and o’-a also
represent surfaces of constant absolute angular momentum about the storm’s axis.
The Hurricane’s Structure and Eye
The eye of the hurricane is the "calm in the middle of the storm" where
skies are relatively clear and winds subside to near calm in its center.
Temperatures are often several degrees warmer than the surrounding eye
wall, especially at higher levels of the storm. This warmth is explained
from the fact that subsidence from storms in the eye wall will result in
adiabatic warming which also creates a strong inversion which suppresses
convection. Soundings taken within the eye exhibit a layer of warm and
moist conditions from the surface to around 1-3 km and beneath the
inversion. The eye typically forms as the intensity of the storm increases.
Although the exact method of eye formation is not well-understood, two
mechanisms are probably most significant. Keep in mind that strongly
rotating fluids may universally result in an eye (e.g. tornadoes, dust devils,
hurricanes, etc…) The winds converging and rotating around the center of
the storm can no longer be forced toward the center due to the law of the
conservation of angular momentum where speeds would quickly rise to
supersonic speeds.
The Hurricane’s Structure and Eye
Consequently, the air will rise before it gets to the exact center. The eye wall which
surrounds the eye contains the most turbulent conditions and the most intense
thunderstorms. Convection in tropical cyclones is organized into long, narrow
rainbands that converge towards the center of the storm, known as spiral bands.
Subsidence on both sides of the bands contributes to clearing within the eye. This
subsidence, along with that of the centrifuging effect, contributes to the development
of the eye, although which of the two predominates is unknown. Some tropical
cyclones intensify and develop two or more concentric eyewalls surrounding the
circulation center of the storm. As the inner eyewall forms, convection surrounding
the eyewall can organize into distinct rings. With additional subsidence from the
outer eyewall, the inner eyewall weakens as the outer eyewall becomes the dominant
feature. When the inner eyewall dissipates, pressures rise slightly and are only
partially compensated by the more rapid pressure falls associated with the
intensification of the outer eyewall. The cyclone itself can weaken for a short period
of time before often restrengthening. Eyes range in size from 5 miles to over 120 miles
across, but most are approximately 20-40 miles in diameter .
Evolution
Requirements for Cyclogenesis
Seven conditions are necessary for tropical
cyclones to form: a warm sea surface, non-zero
Coriolis force, nonlocal conditional instability, high
humidity in the mid troposphere, weak ambient
wind shear, enhanced synoptic-scale vorticity, and
a trigger.
 Evolution
Warm Sea Surface
The sea surface temperature (SST) must be
approximately 26.5°C or warmer and the warm
surface waters must be at least 50 m deep. This
warm temperature is needed to enable strong
evaporation and heat transfer from the sea surface
into the boundary layer. The warmer, more-humid
boundary-layer air serves as the fuel
for thunderstorms in the tropical cyclone.
The fast winds in hurricanes create large waves
that stir the top part of the ocean. If the warm
waters are too shallow, then this turbulent mixing
will
stir colder deeper water up to the surface (see Focus
Box two pages later). When this happens, the
sea-surface temperature decreases below the 26.5°C
threshold, and the hurricane kills itself.
Evolution
Coriolis Force
Tropical cyclones cannot exist within about 500 km of the equator (i.e., ≤ 5°
latitude), because Coriolis force is near zero there (and is exactly zero right at the
equator). Rarely, very small-diameter tropical cyclones have been observed closer to
the equator, but none are observed right at the equator. Not only cannot tropical
cyclones form at the equator, but existing cyclones cannot cross the equator (Fig.
16.7). Without Coriolis force, boundary-layer air would be sucked directly into the
eye by the low pressure there. Thus, air molecules would accumulate in the eye,
causing pressure to increase towards ambient values. The result is that the low
pressure would disappear, winds would die, and the tropical cyclone would cease to
exist in less than a day. This is what happens to tropical cyclones that approach the
equator. But with Coriolis force, winds in the bottom half of the troposphere are
forced around the eye at gradient- or cyclostrophic-wind speeds. Namely, most of
the air is flowing tangentially around the eye rather than flowing radically into it.
Only close to the ground does drag change the winds into boundary layer gradient
winds, resulting in a small amount of convergence toward the eye. Thus, the
hurricane can persist for many days.
Approximate zonal average sea-surface temperature
SST (°C, thick solid line) averaged around the globe
during 3 Aug 2009. Also shown is the max SST (°C,
thin dashed line) on that day at each latitude. The
magnitude of the Coriolis parameter fc (10–5 s–1) is
the thin solid line. Dotted line is the SST threshold of
26.5°C for tropical cyclones. Those latitudes that
exceed the
temperature threshold and have Coriolis parameter
that is not near zero are favored locations for
tropical cyclones (shaded medium grey). Tropical
cyclones can also occur in limited regions (shaded
light grey) at other latitudes where the max SST
exceeds the threshold. “Excluded latitudes” are those
for which Coriolis force is too small. As the seasons
progress, the location of peak SST shifts, causing the
favored latitudes to differ from this particular
August
example.
Evolution
Nonlocal Conditional Instability
Because tropical cyclones are made of thunderstorms, the tropical
environment must have sufficient nonlocal conditional instability to
support deep thunderstorm convection. Namely, there must be a stable
layer (i.e., a cap) above a warm humid boundary layer, and the mid-
troposphere must be relatively cool compared to the boundary layer. The
warm humid boundary layer is achieved via strong heat and moisture
fluxes from the warm sea surface into the air. The cap is the trade-wind
inversion that was discussed in the Global Circulation chapter. These
conditions, combined with a cool mid troposphere, lead to large values
of convective available potential energy (CAPE), as was thoroughly
explained in the Thunderstorm chapter. Hence, large values of CAPE
imply sufficient nonlocal conditional instability for tropical cyclones.
Evolution
High Humidity in the Mid-troposphere
In a deep layer of air centered at roughly 5 km above sea level, humidity
must be high. Otherwise, the incipient thunderstorms cannot continue to
grow and become organized into tropical cyclones. Note that this differs
from mid-latitude thunderstorms, where a drier mid-troposphere allows
more violent thunderstorms. When dry environmental air is entrained into
the sides of mid-latitude thunderstorms, some of the storm’s hydrometeors
evaporate, causing the strong downdrafts that define supercell storms and
which create downbursts, gust fronts, and can help trigger tornadoes. In the
tropics, such downbursts from any one thunderstorm can disrupt
neighboring thunderstorms, reducing the chance that neighboring
thunderstorms can work together in an incipient eyewall. Also, the cold
downburst air accumulates at the bottom of the troposphere, thereby
increasing static stability and reducing deep convection.
Evolution
Weak Ambient Wind Shear
Wind shear within 4° latitude of the incipient
storm must be weak (ΔM < 10 m/s between pressure
levels 80 and 25 kPa) to enable thunderstorm
clusters to form. These clusters are the precursors
to tropical cyclones.
If the shear is too strong, the updrafts in the
thunderstorms become tilted, and latent heating due
to water-vapor condensation is spread over a broader
area. This results in less-concentrated warming,
and a reduced ability to create a low-pressure center
at sea level around which the thunderstorms can become
organized into a hurricane.
This requirement differs from that for mid-latitude
thunderstorms. At mid-latitudes, strong shear
in the ambient environment is good for storms because
it encourages the creation of mesocyclones
and supercell thunderstorms. Apparently, in the
tropics such rotation of individual thunderstorms
is bad because it interferes with the collaboration of
many thunderstorms to create an eyewall.
Synoptic-scale Vorticity
A relative maximum of relative vorticity in the
bottom half of the troposphere can help organize
the thunderstorms into an incipient hurricane.
Otherwise,
any thunderstorms that form would act
somewhat independently of each other.
Hurricane Triggers
Even if all six previous conditions are satisfied,
a method to trigger the hurricane is also needed. A
trigger is anything that creates synoptic-scale horizontal
convergence in the atmospheric boundary
layer. Such horizontal convergence forces upward
motion out of the boundary-layer top as required by
mass conservation (see the Dynamics chapter). Synoptic-
scale upward motion can initiate and support
an organized cluster of thunderstorms — incipient
hurricanes.
Some triggers are: the ITCZ, easterly waves,
Monsoon trough, mid-latitude fronts that reach the
tropics, and Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs.
FORMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
The wind field in the mature tropical cyclone has also been studied [Hughes,
1952; Jordan, 1952]. Earlier results have been revised on the basis of recent aircraft
observations. Figure 2 shows a typical example of the horizontal wind field observed
within hurricane Donna of 1960. Spirally converging inflow with counterclockwise
rotation is seen in the lower level. On the other hand, clockwise rotating outflow
is observed in the upper troposphere. In the central core region, the rotation is
counterclockwise even at the upper level.
Role of the warm-core thermal structure in the dynamics of the tropical cyclone.
, We shall first present a set of equations to discuss certain dynamical principles
and to relate the thermal structure and the wind field. In vector notation, the
Eulerian equation of motion for a mass unit of air moving relative to the rotating
.. earth is

(dv/dt) + 2Q X v = -Vcp - aVp + aF

FORMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
where v is velocity, Q the rate of the earth's rotation, cp the resultant potential
of gravitation and centrifugal accelerations, a the specific volume, p the pressure,
and F the viscous force. The individual time derivative d/dt = (a/at) + v· V.
Conservation of mass is expressed by the equation of continuity
ap/at + V . (pv) = 0

where p(= l/a) is the density of the air.

The ideal gas law gives the equation of state for air,
pa = RT
Here R is the gas constant of air, and T is temperature.
Horizontal wind field of hurricane Donna. of 1960. Left: lower
troposphere. Right: upper troposphere. (Courtesy of H. Riehl.)
FORMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
For the ideal gas, the first law of thermodynamics is expressed by
C, dT = dh - pda (1.4)
where C. is specific heat of air at constant volume. Equation 1.4 means that the
increase of internal energy per unit mass of air C.dT is due to the heat addition
dh and the work done by pressure -pdOf.. By using (1.3), we find that (1.4) can
also be expressed as
C" dT = dh + Of. Dp where C'II is specific heat of air at constant pressure.
Equations 1.1-1.4 relate the four dependent variables (three components of
v, p, p, and T) with four independent variables, three in space and time, provided
that the frictional force F is specified as a function of these variables.
In order to apply (1.1) to the dynamics of the tropical cyclone, it is convenient
to use a cylindrical coordinate system locally fixed at the center of the cyclone
which can be located at latitude cpo Taking the radius r positive outward, the
azimuth X positive counterclockwise (origin at east), and the height z positive
upward, we can write the three component equations of (1.1) as
dVr Vx
2
de - fvx - r + - ap F fw cos X = -Of. ar + Of. ,
ddvtx + f v, + V-:r;V:X- - f-w sm. '\ ;m + F 1\ = -a ~ a x
ddwt - - ~ f(v, cos X - Vx sin X) = -g - a ()z + aF.
FORMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
where v,, Vx, and ware the radial, tangential, and vertical velocities, respectively;
g is the acceleration of gravity; F" Fx, and F. are the components of the viscous
force; and f = 2Q sin cp, J = 2Q cos cp the vertical and lateral components of Coriolis
parameter, respectively. Usually the terms involving J are neglected because they
-are 1 order of magnitude smaller than the other terms in each component
equation.
As a first approximation, the air motion within the mature tropical cyclone
can be regarded as a steady, frictionless, and axially symmetric vortex motion.
This is given by
fv)" + (V),.2/r) = a(ap/ar)
-g = a(ap/az)
(1.7)
These are called the gradient wind and the hydrostatic equations, respectively.
In the case of the gradient wind, the sum of Coriolis and centrifugal forces due to
tangential motion balances the radial pressure gradient force. Differentiating
and rearranging (1.7), we obtain the thermal wind equation
FORMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Equation 1.8 shows that the vertical variation of the tangential wind v~ is related
to the solenoids formed by the intersections of isotherms and isobars in the r-z
plane (Figure 3). Because the solenoids are the result of warm-core thermal structure,
we now know that the characteristic vertical wind variation in the tropical
cyclone from counterclockwise below to clockwise above is related with the thermal
structure of the cyclone.
The a-p solenoids in (1.8) are important for the dynamics of tropical cyclones.
In order to discuss this, we shall generalize the measure of the solenoids and define
the baroclinicity vector B as
(1.9)
If the isobars and surfaces of equal specific volume are parallel (barotropic), B
vanishes. On the other hand, if these two surfaces are inclined relative to each
other, the number of solenoids produced by the intersections will be given by the
magnitude of B. When we use the equation of state, B alternatively can be expressed
as
B = (1//)VpxVp = RV InpxVT = V X (-aVp)
FORMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
Now we shall examine the role of the baroclinicity, i.e., the warm-core
thermal
structure, in its more general effects upon the air motion within the
tropical cyclone.
First we shall imagine a closed physical curve L consisting of air particles.
The
curve can be chosen quite arbitrarily, as is illustrated in Figure 4, at a
given instant
in time. The chosen physical curve must preserve all the air particles
henceforth.
Therefore, except in the steady-state case, the shape of the curve will
change
with time.
FORMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
FORMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
ENERGY
A body can have kinetic energy or potential energy. These are considered
macroscopic properties of a body. However, the total energy of a body can be
explained by using the internal energy of a body plus the kinetic and potential
energy of the body as a whole. The internal energy of the body is a result of the
potential and kinetic energy of the molecules.
One way of looking at this is the rising of a parcel of air within a cumulus cloud.
The internal energy of the air parcel increases as result of latent heat transferring
heat to the gas. The potential of the parcel is also increased by the lifting of the
air. When air radiates to space near the top of the troposphere, it becomes cooler,
losing internal energy and subsides, thus causing a loss in potential energy.
The process of the Hadley cell, likewise a hurricane, likens a Carnot engine
because it loses energy at a cooler temperature than it gains it back. Therefore,
the "engine" protects itself against frictional, or mechanical, dissipation by
maintaining itself through the continual transfer of energy from other sources. In
the Hadley Cell and the hurricane, this source of energy is sensible and latent
heat from the sea.