Week 9

Axioms of Probability
Aneela Zafar
 Axioms of Probability
Axiom 1:
For any event Ei,
0 < P(Ei) < 1
Axiom 2:
P(S) =1
for the sure event S.
ADDITION LAWS:
(a) For two Mutually Exclusive Events
If A and B are mutually exclusive events, the probability either of them occur (A or B) is:
P(A or B) = P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)
(Since A ∩ B is an impossible event, hence P(A ∩ B) = 0.)

(b) For Not-Mutually Exclusive Events

If A and B are any two events defined in a sample space S, the probability at least one of them occurs (A
or B) is:
P(A or B) = P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)
In words, this law may be stated as follows:
“If two events A and B are not mutually exclusive, then the probability that at least one of them occurs, is
given by the sum of the separate probabilities of events A and B minus the probability of the joint event A
∩ B.”
Example:
If one card is selected at random from a deck of 52 playing cards,
what is the probability that the card is a club or a face card or both?

Solution:
Let A represent the event that the card selected is a club, B, the event
that the card selected is a face card, and A ∩ B, the event that the
card selected is both a club and a face card. Then we need P(A U B).
Now P(A) = 13/52, as there are 13 clubs,
P(B) = 12/52, as there are 12 faces cards,
and P(A ∩ B) = 3/52, since 3 of clubs are also face cards.
Therefore the desired probability is
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
= 13/52 + 12/52 - 3/52
= 22/52.
EXAMPLE: Suppose that we toss a pair of dice, and we are interested in
the event that we get a total of 5 or a total of 11. What is the probability
of this event?

SOLUTION:
In this context, the first thing to note is that ‘getting a total of 5’ and
‘getting a total of 11’ are mutually exclusive events. Hence, we should
apply the special case of the addition theorem.
If we denote ‘getting a total of 5’ by A, and ‘getting a total of 11’ by B,
then P(A) = 4/36 (since there are four outcomes favorable to the
occurrence of a total of 5), and P(B) = 2/36 (since there are two outcomes
favorable to the occurrence of a total of 11).
Hence
The probability that we get a total of 5 or a total of 11 is given by
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)
= 4/36 + 2/36 = 6/36 = 0.167
Multiplication Laws

(a) For two independent events

For two independent events A and B, the probability that both of
them occur (A and B) is
P(A and B) = P(A∩B) = P(A).P(B)

(b) For two dependent events

For two dependent events A and B, the probability that both of
them occur (A and B) is
P(A and B) = P(A∩B) = P(A).P(B/A) = P(B).P(A/B)
•  
Example: Two cards are drawn in succession from a well
shuffled pack of playing cards. What is the probability that
both are diamond cards if first drawn card is Replaced?
Solution:
Let D1 stands for first card drawn and D2 stands for second
drawn card, then we have to find P(D1 and D2) = P(D1 ∩ D2)

Hence: P(D1 and D2) = P(D1 ∩ D2) = P(D1).P(D2)

= 1/4*1/4 = 1/16

As D1 and D2 are independent.

•  
Example: Two cards are drawn in succession from a well shuffled pack of
playing cards. What is the probability that both are diamond cards if first
drawn card is Not Replaced?
Solution:
Let D1 stands for first card drawn and D2 stands for second drawn card, then
we have to find P(D1 and D2) = P(D1 ∩ D2)

Hence: P(D1 and D2) = P(D1).P(D2 /D1)

= 1/4*4/17 =1/17
(As the events D1 and D2 are dependent.)
 Conditional Probability

The probabilities P(A/B) and P(B/A) are called the conditional probabilities.
The vertical line separating A and B in P(A/B) is read as the word “given” so that the
entire statement is read as “the probability that A occurs, given that B has already
occurred”.

The conditional probability P(A/B) answers the question: What is the probability of
A subject to the condition that B has occurred? Similarly the conditional probability
P(B/A) answers the question: What is the probability of B subject to the condition
that A has occurred.
•Example:
 
The Probability that it will rain on the first day of July
is 0.50. The probability that it will rain on both the
first and the second day of July is 0.40. Given that July
1 is a rainy day, what is the probability of rain on the
next day?
Solution:
Let R1 denote the event that it will rain on the first
day of July and R2 the event that it will rain on the
Second day of July.
P(R1)= 0.50 and P(R1 ∩ R2) = 0.40
Using the formula of conditional probability, we have
 Practice Questions
Question 1: The chances that the firm A will get the contract in coming bid are
60%. What is the probability that firm A will not get the contract.

Question 2: A and B are two business executives of a firm. The chances to solve
any problem faced by the firm by A and B respectively are 70% and 90%. What is
the probability that next problem faced by firm will be solved by:
i. Both of them
ii. Either of them

Question 3: A pair of fair dice is rolled what is the probability of getting the sum of
dots on the upper sides of the dice as
iii. 4 or 7
iv. Even or less than 7
Question 4: A and B are two dependent events. P(A)=0.25 , P(B)=0.33 ,
P(AUB)=0.43
Find
i. P(A∩B)
ii. P(B/A)

Question 5: A and B two athletes are in a race, the chances that A will win are 65%.
What are the chances of B winning?

Question 6: A manufacturer has 20 sale points of them 12 are in urban areas. The
manufacturer selects a sale point at random to know the stock position. What are
the chances that the selected sale point is of rural areas?

Question 7: A pair of dice is rolled. Let A denote the event that “the sum shown is
6” and B denote the event “the two dice show the same number”. Find (i) P(A/B)
(ii) P(B/A)

Question 8: A man tosses two fair dice. What is the conditional probability that
the sum of the two dice will be 7 given that the sum is odd?