Experiential Learning

Project Group 2

By Odo Alex James

Eugene Austin
An illustration of the worthiness of each
mark six ticket
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Agenda:

2.
1. 4.
Assumption 3. Data
Background Implication
s

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Background:
Mark Six is a 6-out-of-49 lottery-style
game, with seven prize levels. The
winning numbers are selected
automatically from a lottery
machine that contains balls with
numbers 1 to 49. It is a very popular
gambling event in HK. Therefore,
we sought to discover whether in
any situation would a person be
able to profit in a bet.

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Assumptions:
Assumption 1

Assume the top 3 prizes are fixed according to

figures derived from the 31/8 cycle.

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Assumption 2

Each level of prize would only accept one bet as a

successful bet.

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Assumption 3

The probability of drawing each number (1-49) is

equal.

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Assumption 4

The value of each unit bet is $10.

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Data:
Prizes:

1st Prize Pick all the 6 Drawn Numbers $14,105,370 on 31st Aug

2nd Prize Pick 5 Drawn Numbers plus the Extra Number $1,017,560 on 31st Aug

3rd Prize Pick 5 Drawn Numbers $33,810 on 31st Aug

4th Prize Pick 4 Drawn Numbers plus the Extra Number A fixed prize of $9,600

5th Prize Pick 4 Drawn Numbers A fixed prize of $640

6th Prize Pick 3 Drawn Numbers plus the Extra Number A fixed prize of $320

7th Prize Pick 3 Drawn Numbers A fixed prize of $40

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Probability of getting prizes:

*P = Probability
P1 = P of getting the 1st Prize = 6C6/49C6 = 1/13983816

P2 = P of getting the 2nd Prize = 6C5*1C1/49C6 = 1/2330636

P3 = P of getting the 3rd Prize = 6C5*42C1/49C6 = 3/166474

P4 = P of getting the 4th Prize = 6C4*42C1*1C1 /49C6 = 15/332948

P5 = P of getting the 5th Prize = 6C4*42C2/49C6 = 615/665896

P6 = P of getting the 6th Prize = 6C3*42C2*1C1/49C6 = 205/166474

P7 = P of getting the 7th Prize = 6C3*42C3/49C6 = 4100/249711

P of getting no prize = 1 – P1 – P2 – P3 – P4 – P5 – P6 – P7 ≈ 0.98136

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 Probability of getting no prize

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P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 No prize
Average gain/loss of each ticket

expected gain from the draw – initial cost

= $14,105,370 *P1 + $1,017,560*P2 + $33,810*P3 + $9,600*P4 +

$640*P5 + $320*P6 + $40*P7 - $10
≈ - $5.871

Which is smaller than 0!!!

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Conclusion
Mark Six is not favourable to the player.
It is advised that players not be obsessed
with the game as the experiment presents
an unfavourable case to them.

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Thank You!

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