EVENT T

REE ANA
LYSIS
Event Tree analysis
• evaluates potential accident outco
mes that might result following an
equipment failure
• process upset known as an initiati
ng event. It is a “forward-thinking
” process,
• analyst begins with an initiating e
vent
• develops the following sequences
of events that describes potential a
ccidents
• accounting for both the successes
and failures of the safety functions
as the accident progresses.
 Guidelines
1. Identify an initiating event of
interest.
2. Identify the safety functions
designed to
deal with the initiating event.

3. Construct the event tree.

4. Describe the resulting accident event

sequences.
Problem of
Interest
Step 1 Identify the initiating
event

system or
equipment human error
failure

process upset

“Loss of to an
Cooling Oxidation
Water” Reactor
Step 2 Identify the Safety Functions
Designed to Deal with the Initiating Event

• Safety system that automatically respond to the initiating event.

• Alarms that alert the operator when the initiating event occurs
and operator actions designed to be performed in response to
alarms or required by procedures.
• Barriers or Containment methods that are intended to limit the
effects of the initiating event.
 Example

Oxidation reactor high Operator reestablish Automatic shutdown These safety functions are
temp. Alarm alerts cooling water flow to the system stops reaction at listed in the order in
operator at temp T1. oxidation reactor. temp. T2. T2 > T1 which they are intended
to occur.
Step 3: Construct the Event Tree
a. Enter the initiating event and safety functions.
Oxidation reactor Operator Automatic
SAFETY high temperature reestablishes shutdown system
FUNCTION alarm alerts operator cooling water flow stops reaction at
at temperature T1 to oxidation reactor temperature T2

INITIATING EVENT:
Loss of cooling water
to oxidation reactor

FIRST STEP IN CONSTRUCTING EVENT TREE

Step 3: Construct the Event Tree
b. Evaluate the safety functions.
Oxidation reactor Operator Automatic
SAFETY high temperature reestablishes shutdown system
FUNCTION alarm alerts operator cooling water flow stops reaction at
at temperature T1 to oxidation reactor temperature T2

INITIATING EVENT:
Loss of cooling water
to oxidation reactor

Success

Failure

REPRESENTATION OF THE FIRST SAFETY FUNCTION

Step 3: Construct the Event Tree
b) Evaluate the safety functions.
Oxidation reactor Operator Automatic
SAFETY high temperature reestablishes shutdown system
FUNCTION alarm alerts operator cooling water flow stops reaction at
at temperature T1 to oxidation reactor temperature T2

INITIATING EVENT:
Loss of cooling water
to oxidation reactor

Success

If the safety function does not affect the course of the

accident, the accident path proceeds with no branch pt to
Failure the next safety function.

REPRESENTATION OF THE SECOND SAFETY FUNCTION

Step 3: b. Evaluate safety functions.
Oxidation reactor Operator Automatic
SAFETY high temperature reestablishes shutdown system
FUNCTION alarm alerts operator cooling water flow stops reaction at
at temperature T1 to oxidation reactor temperature T2

INITIATING EVENT:
Loss of cooling water
to oxidation reactor

Success
Completed !

Failure

COMPLETED EVENT TREE

Step 4: Describe the Accident Sequence
Oxidation reactor Operator Automatic
SAFETY high temperature reestablishes shutdown system
FUNCTION alarm alerts operator cooling water flow stops reaction at
at temperature T1 to oxidation reactor temperature T2

B C D
A Safe condition,
return to normal
operation
AC Safe condition,
process shutdown
INITIATING EVENT:
Loss of cooling water ACD Unsafe condition,
runaway reaction,
to oxidation reactor operator aware of
problem
A
AB
Unstable condition,
process shutdown

ABD Unsafe condition,

runaway reaction,
Success operator unaware
of problem

Failure

ACCIDENT SEQUENCES
 High Temp Operator Operator Operator
Safety Function: Alarm Alerts Notices Re-starts Shuts Down
Operator High Temp Cooling Reactor Result

Identifier: B C D E
Failures/Demand: 0.01 0.25 0.25 0.1
A Continue Operation
0.7425
AD
0.99 Shut Down
0.2227
0.2475 ADE Runaway
0.02475
A
AB Continue Operation
1 0.005625
Initiating Event: ABD Shut Down
0.0075 0.001688
Loss of Cooling
0.001875 ABDE Runaway
1 Occurrence/yr. 0.0001875
0.01 ABC Continue Operation
0.001875
ABCD Shut Down
0.0025
0.0005625
0.000625 ABCDE Runaway
Shutdown = 0.2227 + 0.001688 + 0.005625 = 0.2250 occurrences/yr. 0.0000625
Runaway = 0.02475 + 0.0001875 + 0.0000625 = 0.02500 occurrences/yr.
Figure 11-9 Event tree for a loss of coolant accident for the reactor of Figure 11-8.
 Safety Function
0.01 Failures/Demand

Initiating Success of Safety Function

Event (1-0.01)*0.5 = 0.495 Occurrence/yr.
0.5 Occurrences/yr.

Failure of Safety Function

0.01*0.5 = 0.005 Occurrence/yr.

Figure 11-10 The computational sequence across a safety function in an

event tree.
 High Temp Operator Operator Operator Operator
Safety Function: Alarm Alerts Notices Re-starts Shuts Down Shuts Down
Operator High Temp Cooling Reactor Result
Identifier: B C D E F
Failures/Demand: 0.01 0.25 0.25 0.01 0.1
A
0.7425 Continue Operation
AD
0.99 0.2450 Shut Down
ADE
0.2475 0.002228 Shut Down
ADEF
0.002475 0.0002475 Runaway
A AB
1 0.005625 Continue Operation
Initiating Event: ABD
0.001856 Shut Down
Loss of Cooling 0.00750
ABDE
1 Occurrence/yr. 0.001875 0.00001688 Shut Down
ABDEF
0.00001875 0.000001875 Runaway
0.01 ABC
0.001875 Continue Operation
ABCD
0.0006187 Shut Down
0.0025
ABCDE
0.000625 0.00000563 Shut Down
ABCDEF
0.00000675 0.000000625 Runaway

Shutdown = 0.2450 + 0.001856 + 0.00001688 + 0.0006187 = 0.2475 occurrences/yr.

Runaway = 0.0002475 + 0.000001875 + 0.000000625 = 0.0002500 occurrences/yr.
Figure 11-11 Event tree for the reactor of Figure 11-8. This includes a high temperature shutdown system.