Predicting the Solar Cycle

Leif Svalgaard
Stanford University

Solar Analogs II
Flagstaff, AZ, Sept. 22, 2009

1
State of the Art: Predicting Cycle 24
Predictions sent to the Prediction Panel

2
State of the Art: Predicting Cycle 24
What the Sun seems to be doing

3
Near Normal Distribution = No Skill
Some preference for Climatological Mean

Distribution of Predicted Solar Cycle 24 Size

30

25

20 Climatological Mean

15

10

0
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225
Rmax

4
 Early Optimism and PR Effort
• “The next sunspot cycle will be 30-50%
stronger than the last one and begin as
much as a year late, according to a
breakthrough forecast using a computer
model of solar dynamics developed by
scientists at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR).”
2004-2006

5
 Flux Transport Dynamo Models
• Dikpati, M., de Toma, G., Gilman, P.A.: Predicting the
strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux-transport dynamo-
based tool, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L05102, 2006.
Rmax24 = 160-185
• Choudhuri, A.R., Chatterjee, P., Jiang, J.: Predicting
Solar Cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model, Phys. Rev.
Lett., 98, 131103, 2007.
Rmax24 = 75
• Difference is primarily due to different assumptions about the
diffusivity of magnetic flux into the Sun [high = weak cycle]

6
 High Diffusivity: Left
Low Diffusivity (Advection): Right
P is a proxy for T Conveyor Belt

One year
between
dots

Choudhuri et al. Dikpati et al.

7
 Grow-N-Crash ‘Model’
Easy to get a high correlation

Dikpati et al. 2006

Intermittency from threshold effects

8
Grow-N-Crash ‘Model’
Easy to get a high correlation

Dikpati et al. 2006

9
Supply a Scaled Standard Cycle
Body to get ‘Stunning’ Correlation
Crash-N-Grow
Dikpati et al.

Dikpati et al. assumed constant Meridional Circulation, except for cycle 24 10

 Meridional Circulation
Both (Dikpati, Choudhuri) of these Flux
Transport Dynamo Models produce strong
polar fields and short cycles when the
meridional flow is fast.
However: “Measurements of the meridional flow
over Cycle 23 now show that on the approach to
Cycle 24 minimum in 2008 to speeds
significantly higher than were seen at the
previous minimum (David Hathaway, SOHO-23)”

11
Meridional Circulation

Lisa Rightmire, David Hathaway (2009):

Cross-correlating full-disk magnetograms
12
 ‘Flux Transport Models Not
Ready Yet’
• “In these models this higher meridional
flow speed should produce strong polar
fields and a short solar cycle contrary to
the observed behavior.
• “These observations, along with others,
suggest that Flux Transport Dynamo
Models do not properly capture solar cycle
behavior and are not yet ready to provide
predictions of solar cycle behavior.
Hathaway, 2009
13
 Is This Too Harsh?
• The polar fields were built several years
ago before the increase in the Meridional
circulation [the polar fields were essentially
established by mid-2003]

22 23

14
And Have Not Increased Since Then,
rather Beginning to Show a Decrease
WSO Polar Fields
150
uT Bad Filter

100
S
50

0
N+S model WF

-50
N
-100
N-S
-150
2003.0 2004.0 2005.0 2006.0 2007.0 2008.0 2009.0 2010.0 2011.0
Year

15
Latitudes of Active Regions During
Cycle 23 were not Unusual

1874-2005

16
 Issues with Meridional Circulation
• The question is not whether the M.C. is there or
not, but rather what role it plays in the solar
cycle, probably hinging on the value of the
turbulent diffusivity.
• An unknown is the degree to which M.C. is
affected by back-reaction from the Lorentz force
associated with the dynamo-generated magnetic
field (chicken and egg).
• The form and speed of the equatorward return
flow in the lower convective zone is at present
unknown.
17
Perhaps a Shallow Dynamo?
Ken Schatten [Solar Physics, 255, 3-38,
2009] explores the possibility of sunspots
being a surface phenomenon [being the
coalescence of smaller magnetic features
as observations seem to indicate] and that
the solar dynamo is shallow rather than
operating at the tachocline, based on his
Cellular Automata model of solar activity.

18
Schatten’s Cellular Automata Model

19
In the CA Model, the Polar Flux
also Predicts the Sunspot Flux

20
 Other Dynamo Models
The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method has been
used to assimilate the sunspot number data into a non-
linear α-Ω mean-field dynamo model, which takes into
account the dynamics of turbulent magnetic helicity.

Kitiashvili, 2009
21
Back to Empirical Predictions?
With predictions based on Flux Transport
Dynamos in doubt or less enthusiastically
embraced (and the Shallow Dynamo and
the EnKF approach not generally pursued)
we may be forced back to Precursor
Techniques where some observed
features are thought to presage future
activity.

22
 Precursors
• Coronal Structure [Rush to the Poles]
• Torsional Oscillation [At Depth]
• H-alpha Maps [Magnetic Field Proxy]
• Geomagnetic Activity [Solar Wind Proxies]
• Open Flux at Minimum

And that old stand-by:

• Polar Fields
23
 Green Corona Brightness
to Determine Time of Maximum
?

Altrock, 2009
24
Torsional Oscillation Polar Branch
Where is it? (Chicken & Egg)

Howe, 2009 25
Large-Scale ‘Magnetic’ Field from
Neutral Lines on Hα Maps
Assigning fields of +1 and -1 to
areas between neutral lines,
calculate the global dipole μ1 and
octupole μ3 components. They
McIntosh predict the cycle 69 months ahead

A(t)

Tlatov et al., 2006

26
Geomagnetic Activity During
Descending Phase of Cycle

Bhatt et al., 2009

27
 Or Just at Minimum
Sunspot Number at Maximum Following Ap at Minimum
180
Rmax obs Apmin 16
160
14
140
12
120
10
100
8
80

60 6

40 4
2
Rmax = 22.5 + 13.42 Apmin R =0.88
20 2
Rmax = 24.85 * Apmin0.7956 R2=0.89
0 0
1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Svalgaard, 2009
28
AA-index as Proxy for Open
Heliospheric Magnetic Flux

24

Min AA based on last 12 months

Wang & Sheeley, 2009 29

 Recurrent High-Speed Streams Nearing Solar
Minimum Create High Geomagnetic Activity
Geomagnetic Activity (aa*)
70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Sargent's Recurrence Index

1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.21860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-0.4
-0.6

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 The Size of these Activity Peaks
[Corrected for Sunspot Activity] has
been used as a Precursor of the Next
Cycle [Physics is Obscure Though]

Hathaway et al.
31
 Picking the Wrong Peak [From
Filtered Data] Can Lead You Astray
Geomagnetic Activity (aa*)
70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Sargent's Recurrence Index

1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.21860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

-0.4
-0.6

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 “Picking the Peak”
• Using the large peak in 2003 predicted a large
cycle [Rmax ~ 160], but perhaps the peak to use
[based on the Recurrence Index] is the one in 2008
that predicts a small cycle [Rmax ~ 80]
Geomagnetic Activity
80

70

60
Flares
50

40
"Recurrence
30 Peak"
20 Large
10 Cycle Small
cycle
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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Definition of Polar Fields

34
 Measurements of Polar Fields

1953 1965

North - South Solar Polar fields [microTesla]

400
MSO* WSO
300

200

100

0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-100

-200

-300

-400

35
Another Measure of the Polar fields
17 GHz Radio Flux

K Polar Field Proxy from Nobeyama 17 GHz Brightness Temperature

1500
North
1000
500
0
South
-500
-1000
Year
-1500
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

uT WSO Polar Fields

150
100
50
North
0 Data Bad
-50 South
-100
-150
Year
-200
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Nobeyama Radioheliograph, Japan

36
 Polar Field Scaled by Size of Next
Cycle is Possibly an Invariant
North - South Solar Polar fields [microTesla]
400
MSO* WSO
300

200

Rmax24 = 75
100

0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-100

-200

-300
Our Prediction
-400

37
 Active Region Count
500
450
2007.285

Cycle Transitions
400
350 2007.37
2007.452
300
2007.537
250
2007.622
200
2007.704
150
2007.789
100
21 22 23 24 2007.871
50
2007.956
0
2008.041
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2008.123

The current minimum

2008.205
2008.287
100 2008.372
90 2008.454

is very low [the lowest

80 2008.539
70 2008.624
60 2008.706
50 2008.791
21 22

in a century], and it
40 2008.873
30 2008.958
20 2009.042
10 2009.121
0 2009.203

looks like Minimum is

2009.285
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
2009.366
2009.448
2009.529

now behind us
100 2009.611
90 2009.692
80
70
60
50
40
30 22 23
20
10
0 Region Days (per Month)
30
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
25

100 20
90
80 Ri/0.3
15 23+24
70
60 23
10
50
40
30 5
20 23 24 24
10 0
0 2007.75 2008 2008.25 2008.5 2008.75 2009 2009.25 2009.5 2009.75 2010
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

38
 What Will Cycle 24 Look Like?
• Perhaps like cycle 14, starting 107 years ago
• Note the curious oscillations, will we see some this time?
• If so, I can just imagine the confusion there will be with
‘verification’ of the prediction

Cycle 14

Alvestad, 2009 39
If We Can Just See the Spots…
• Sunspots are getting warmer, thus becoming
harder to see. Will they disappear? Or will the
Sunspot Number just be biased and too small…
Livingston & Penn Umbral Data
4000 1
B Gauss Intensity
3500 0.8

3000 0.6
dy = 0.0186 dx

2500 0.4
dy = -54 dx

2000 0.2

1500 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year 2020

William Livingston, Pers. Comm. 2010

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 F10.7 Flux Relationship with
Sunspot Numbers is Changing
Sunspot Number vs. F10.7 Flux Monthly Averages
250
R

200
y = -9.167E-12x6 + 1.194E-08x 5 - 5.900E-06x4 + 1.451E-03x 3 - 1.900E-01x2 + 1.378E+01x - 3.978E+02
R2 = 9.770E-01
Ratio of observed SSN
and SSN computed
150
from F10.7 using
1951-1988
100 formula for 1951-1988
1996-2009
50
Recent SSN already
0
0 50 100 150 200 250
F10.7 sfu

300
too low ?

Observed Rz,i / Calculated Rz,i [for Rz,i >4]

2

Zürich SIDC

m m m m m m
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Svalgaard & Hudson, 2009 41

 So What Do We Predict? SSN or
F10.7 Flux or Magnetic Regions?
• Since the prediction is based on the
magnetic field, we are really predicting a
proxy for the field:
• F10.7 120 sfu
• Magnetic Regions 6
• Sunspot Number Who knows?
• Was the Maunder Minimum like this?
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 Conclusion
"It cannot be said that much progress has been made
towards the disclosure of the cause, or causes, of the
sun-spot cycle. Most thinkers on this difficult subject
provide a quasi-explanation of the periodicity through
certain assumed vicissitudes affecting internal
processes. In all these theories, however, the course of
transition is arbitrarily arranged to suit a period, which
imposes itself as a fact peremptorily claiming
admittance, while obstinately defying explanation"

Agnes M. Clerke, A Popular History of Astronomy During

the Nineteenth Century, page 163, 4th edition, A. & C.
Black, London, 1902.

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 Abstract
We discuss a number of aspects related to our understanding of the solar
dynamo. We begin by illustrating the lack of our understanding. Perhaps as
exemplified by SWPC's Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel. They received and
evaluated ~75 prediction papers with predicted sunspot number maxima ranging
from 40 to 200 and with a near normal distribution around the climatological
mean indicative of the poor State of the Art. Flux Transport Dynamo Models
were recently hyped? or hoped? to promise significant progress, but they give
widely differing results and thus seem inadequate in their current form. In these
models, higher meridional flow speed should produce strong polar fields and a
short solar cycle, contrary to the observed behavior of increased meridional flow
speed, low polar fields, and long-duration cycle 23. Poorly understood Precursor-
methods again seem to work as they have in previous cycles. I review the
current status of these methods. Predictions are usually expressed in terms of
maximum Sunspot Number or maximum F10.7 radio flux, with the implicit
assumption that there is a fixed [and good] relation between these measures of
solar activity. If Livingston & Penn’s observations of a secular change in sunspot
contrast hold up, it becomes an issue which of these two measures of solar
activity should be predicted and what this all means. The coming cycle 24 may
challenge cherished and long-held beliefs and paradigms. .

44