PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

UNIT 3

CORRELATION

&

REGRESSION

COURSE CODE: MATH 176 Lecturer : JOHN ESSUMAN

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 FOOD FOR THOUGHT

• “ Do not be deceived: neither the sexually

immoral, nor idolaters, nor adulterers, nor men
who practice homosexuality, nor thieves, nor
the greedy, nor drunkards, nor revilers, nor
swindlers will inherit the Kingdom of God”…
1 Corinthians 6:9-10
• Are you in any of the groups listed above?
• If you need help see me in my office

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 GENERAL INFORMATION
• In statistical work, we often deal with problems involving
more than one variable such as finding the relationship
between two variables.

• EXAMPLES:
We may be interested in finding the relationship between;
1. The performance of students in two courses
2. The amount spent on advertising and that received by
sales
3. The heights of Fathers and Sons.
4. The heights and weights of individuals.
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 GENERAL INFORMATION
• A qualitative statement of the relationship such as “ Tall
fathers will usually have tall sons” can be deduced by
anyone, but this statement is not precise enough to be of
use to decision makers.
• However, a quantitative statement will be of much
greater value and useful.
• Hence a quantitative measure of the relationship between
two variables will be more appropriate and this can be
achieved by using the Coefficient of correlation
computation.

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 GENERAL INFORMATION
• Regression analysis is the formulation and determination
of the mathematical model or form of the relationship
between the variables and the use of the model for
prediction purposes.
• Regression means reversion and it determines whether
there is a relationship or not.
• On the other hand Correlation analysis determines the
strength and direction of the relationship
• A scatter plot (or scatter diagram) is used to show the
relationship between two variables.

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 Scatter Plot Examples
• Relationships
Linear relationships Curvilinear relationships

y y

x x

y y

x x
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 SCATTER PLOT EXAMPLES CONT.
• More Relationships
Strong relationships Weak relationships

y y

x x

y y

x
x
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 SCATTER PLOT EXAMPLES CONT.

No Relationship
(continued)
No relationship

x
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 CORRELATION

 measures and describes the strength and

direction of the relationship
 Bivariate techniques requires two variable scores
from the same individuals (dependent and
independent variables)
 Multivariate when more than two independent
variables (e.g effect of advertising and prices on
sales)
 Variables must be ratio or interval scale

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 CORRELATION COEFFICIENT “ r “

A measure of the strength and direction of a linear relationship

between two variables

The range of r is from –1 to 1.

–1 0 1
If r is close to –1 If r is close to If r is close to
there is a strong 0 there is no 1 there is a
negative linear strong
correlation. correlation. positive
correlation.
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 CORRELATION COEFFICIENT “ r “

y y y

x x x
r = -1 r = - 0.6 r=0
y y

r = +1
r = 0.3 x x
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 THE LINE OF REGRESSION

Regression indicates the degree to which the variation in one variable X, is

related to or can be explained by the variation in another variable Y
Once you know there is a significant linear correlation, you can write an
equation describing the relationship between the x and y variables. This
equation is called the line of regression or least squares line.
The equation of a line may be written as y = mx + b
where m is the slope of the line and b is the y-intercept.

The line of regression is:…………………..

The slope m is…………………….:

The y-intercept is………………….:

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 STRENGTH OF ASSOCIATION

The coefficient of determination, r2, measures the strength of the

association and is the ratio of explained variation in y to the
total variation in y.

The coefficient of determination = r2

where r = coefficient of correlation

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 EXAMPLE 1
The time required for a trader to stock his supermarket with different kinds of soft drinks as
well as the number of boxes of the products stocked is as follows;

Items Number of boxes Time in minutes

n xi yi
1 26 10.15
2 6 2.96
3 8 3.01
4 17 6.88
5 2 0.28
6 13 5.06
7 23 9.14
8 30 11.86
9 28 11.69
10 14 6.04
11 19 7.57
12 4 1.74
13 24 9.38
14 1 0.16
15 5 1.84
(a) Construct a linear regression equation for the above data. Interprete your results.
(b) Compute the correlation coefficient of the above data and interprete your results.
(c) Find the coefficient of determination of the above data and interprete the results.

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 EXAMPLE 1 CONTD.
Construction of Table
2 2
xi yi xi yi x i yi ni
26 10.15 676 103.0225 263.9 1
6 2.96 36 8.7616 17.76 2
8 3.01 64 9.0601 24.08 3
17 6.88 289 47.3344 116.96 4
2 0.28 4 0.0784 0.56 5
13 5.06 169 25.6036 65.78 6
23 9.14 529 83.5396 210.22 7
30 11.86 900 140.6596 355.8 8
28 11.69 784 136.6561 327.32 9
14 6.04 196 36.4816 84.56 10
19 7.57 361 57.3049 143.83 11
4 1.74 16 3.0276 6.96 12
24 9.38 576 87.9844 225.12 13
1 0.16 1 0.0256 0.16 14
5 1.84 25 3.3856 9.2 15

2
∑ xi = ∑ yi = 2 ∑ yi = ∑ xi y i =
∑ xi = n=15
220 87.76 742.93 1852.21
4626

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 EXAMPLE 1 CONTD.

Equation of the line of regression is given as follows;

ŷ = mx + b
where m = regression coefficient of y on x

b and m are estimated values and n represents number of items

2
Also b = ( ∑ yi ) ( ∑ xi ) – ( ∑ xi )( ∑ xi yi )
2
n ( ∑ xi ) – ( ∑ xi )2

m = n( ∑ xi yi ) – ( ∑ xi )( ∑ yi )

n ( ∑ xi 2) – ( ∑ xi )2

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EXAMPLE 1 CONTD.

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EXAMPLE 1 CONTD.

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 EXERCISE 1
1. (a) The wing lengths of thirteen sparrows of various ages are given below;

Age ( days ) x Wing length (cm) y

3.0 1.4
4.0 1.5
5.0 2.2
6.0 2.4
8.0 3.1
9.0 3.2
10.0 3.2
11.0 3.9
12.0 4.1
14.0 4.7
15.0 4.5
16.0 5.2
17.0 5.0

(i) Construct a linear regression of wing lengths on age of birds

(ii) Compute the correlation coefficient to show the direction and strength of the relationship.
(iii) Calculate the coefficient of determination. Comment on your results.

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 EXERCISE 2
The following data are the rates of oxygen consumption of birds, measured at different
environmental temperatures.
Oxygen Consumption (ml/g/hr) Temperature (degrees celcius)
5.2 -18
4.7 -15
4.5 -10
3.6 -5
3.4 0
3.1 5
2.7 10
1.8 19

(i) Construct a linear regression of oxygen consumption rate on temperature on above data.
(ii) Compute the correlation coefficient to show the direction and strength of the relationship.
(iii) Calculate the coefficient of determination. Comment on your results.

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 WISDOM OF LIFE

With JESUS, you cannot fail

With JESUS, you qualify to have
GRADE A in your life.
NO JESUS, NO LIFE

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 Contact

Phone: 0244-222549 / 0501-579694

Email: john.essuman.je@gmail.com

Face Time: john.essuman.ej@gmail.com

WhatsApp: 0244-222549

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