A Global-Scale Biofuels Program

and its Environmental

Consequences

J. Melillo1, A. Gurgel2, D. Kicklighter1, J. Reilly2, T.

Cronin1, S. Paltsev2, B. Felzer1,
A. Sokolov2 and X. Wang2

1
The Ecosystems Center, MBL, Woods Hole, MA

2
Joint Program on Global Change, MIT, Cambridge MA 1
 A Modeling Study
• Using an Integrated Global Systems Model
(IGSM) Developed as part of the MIT Joint
Program on Global Change
• Coupled models within the IGSM
– Economic model - a general equilibrium economic
model, EPPA (the Emissions Prediction and Policy
Analysis model)
– Atmospheric chemistry model
– Reduced form GCM (coupled AOL model)
– Terrestrial biogeochemistry model

2
MIT Integrated Global
System Model (IGSM)

Prinn et al., 1999, Climatic

Change, 41(3/4), 469-546.

3
• http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/MITJPSPGC Rpt 146.pdf
• Gurgel, A., Reilly, J. & Paltsev, S. J. Agric. Food Industrial Org. 5(2), 1-
4
34 (2007).
 Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM)

5
Melillo et al. 1993, Nature 363: 234-240; Felzer et al. 2004 Tellus, 56B, 230-248
Crop yield
6
 Examples of Simulations
• Global-scale simulations – in the context of an
interactive global economy
• Cellulosic biofuels - in the context of other land-
use needs (e.g., croplands, pastures, managed
forests)
• Climate change policy target – e.g., stabilize
[CO2] at 550ppmv, emissions limits prescribed
by economic region (total of 16), cap and trade
mechanism in place
• Primary drivers
– Economics (land price, labor costs, etc.)
– Policies (e.g., conservation of forested lands)
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 2 Land-use Scenarios
• Deforestation – all land-cover types can be
converted to production to biofuels
feedstocks
• Intensification – protection of forests
receives a high priority

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 Absolute land areas in different
land uses (million km2)
Contemporary Deforest. Intensif.

2000 2050

Total Land Area 133 -----------------------------------

of the Earth

Total Area Co- 42 59 50

opted for
Human Use
Biofuels Area 0 15 14

Crop Area 16 20 18

Pasture Area 26 24 18

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 % of grid cell (0.5x0.5o) in biofuels

a. Deforestation

b. Intensification

0 10 20 40 60 80 10
100
Percent
 Preliminary Simulation Results
Deforestation Scenario Intensification Scenario

Land Cover ΔCarbon Co-opted NPP ΔCarbon Co-opted NPP

(Pg C) (Pg C yr-1) (Pg C) (Pg C yr-1)
Time Period 2000-2050 2040-2049 2000-2050 2040-2049
Biofuel -21.38 8.21 +4.34 7.18
Crops
Food Crops -53.53 10.49 -18.73 9.63
Pasture -28.23 10.29 -19.25 7.55
Total -103.14 28.99 -33.64 24.36
Agriculture
Percent Co- -- 50.09 -- 42.09
opted
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 Effects of cellulosic biofuels on terrestrial carbon storage up to 2050

a. Deforestation

b. Intensification

-18 -16 -8 -4 -2 -1 1 2 4 8 12
kg C m-2
 Carbon loans from land stocks and payback times
over the 21st century
a) Deforestation 50
40 Direct Effects
Direct and Maximum Indirect Effects
30
20

Carbon Balance ( Pg C)
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

b) Intensification 50
40
30
20
Carbon Balance ( Pg C)

10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 13
Year
 Summary Remarks
• Earth’s landscape could be fundamentally reshaped when and if we
implement a global biofuels program. Land-use polices that protect
specific biomes can have important positive consequences. Irrespective
of these policies, however, there will almost certainly be massive
biodiversity losses as biomass crops replace natural vegetation at the
scale of 14 to 15 million km2.
• Release of large amounts of carbon to the atmosphere possible – large
enough to affect the climate system – especially if forested land is cleared
for biofuel crops. This is like humanity taking a large carbon loan from the
biosphere.
• Up to about 50% of the annual terrestrial NPP could be co-opted in 2050
due to the expansion of managed lands (currently about 30% is co-opted).
• The consequences for ecosystem services of such a large percentage of
NPP being co-opted are unknown, but potentially critical. For example,
we do not know if we will be crossing thresholds, beyond which the
biosphere will function in different ways.

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 Near-term Challenges
• Resource needs and unintended
consequences
– Nitrogen and N2O production
– Water competition among uses
• Biodiversity consequences
• Social and cultural consequences

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Potential Hotspots of Biotic
Impoverishment

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TEM/EPPA Linkage
C urrent Maps of
B iofuels TE M C limate
Map Variables

NP P
Map

E conomic
Model
(E P P A)

F uture
B iofuels
Map

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