OVERVIEW OF THE

INDIAN ECONOMY 2009-10

(SOURCE: ECONOMIC SURVEY 2009-10)
 MAJOR HIGHLIGHTS

• Economic survey optimistic on growth

• Current fuel prices not fiscally sustainable

• Expenditure control needed to control deficit

• Power, coal seeing a revival

• Infra capacity need to be accelerated

• Timely off-loading of food stocks need urgent attention

• Rationalize port service charges

 Per capita Income and Consumption at 2004-05 levels
Sector Income Income Consumption Consumption
(in Rs.) (% growth) (in Rs.) (% growth)

2007-08 37328 8.1 21841 8.3

2008-09 38695 3.7 23012 5.4
2009-10 40745 5.3 23626 2.7

• A 16% food storage in 2009-10. Faulty food release policy worsened for high
food commodity prices.

• Under capital NREGS, 4.34 crore households gained employment. Under Bharat
Nirman, 250,554kms of rural roads have been completed.
 • Retail prices in the country are rising at a rate which is 10 times faster than
that of the wholesale prices.

• Marginal improvement in spend on education as percentage of GDP from

3.01 to 3.23 in 2009-10

• Net bank credit to infrastructure sector has nearly tripled to Rs. 64321
crores during April - November 2009-10 .

How is the Bank Credit Split in Sectors

Net bank Net bank

(Apr-Nov 2008) (Apr-Nov 2009)
Infrastructure 21918 64321
Power 13107 37806
Telecom -3823 761
Roads and ports 4593 18408
Other infrastructure 8042 7326
• The government’s set target of building 20kms of road each day does not even meet
half of the set standards.

Indicators of Infrastructure Capacity Creation

07-08 08-09 Apr-dec 09

Power capacity addition (mw) 9263 3454 6375
Addition to refinery capacity- 16.5 29 Nil
petroleum
Road length upgraded-NHAI (km) 1683 2203 1486
Road length upgraded-NIH(O) & BRDB- 1897 2226 1294
(km)

Road works completed under PMGSY 41231 52405 36273

km

Route km RKMs electrified-railways 502 787

Additional location with computerized 234 88 189
passenger reservation-railway
• Decontrol prices of food, fertilizer, diesel and kerosene. The impact of these
subsidies is questionable.

Public and Private Investment in Agriculture and Allied Sector at 2004-05 Prices

year Investment Investment Investment Share in Share in

in in in total total
agriculture agriculture agriculture investment investment
and allied and allied and allied (%) (%)
sectors sectors sectors
(Rs crore) (Rs crore) (Rs crore)

Total Public Private Public private

06-07 94400 22978 71422 24.3 75.7
07-08 110006 23039 86967 20.9 79.1
08-09 138597 24452 114145 17.6 82.4
 Inflation at a Satisfactory 7%

• The rate of inflation increased by almost 2 percentage, from 5.5 percent in November 09
to 7.3 percent in December 09.

•In December 2009 the inflation rate for three broad segments – primary articles, fuel
lubricants and light and manufactured products was 14.9 percent, 4.3 percent and 5.2
percent respectively.
 Stock Market Trends

•The stock market remained bullish in the month of December 09 with BSE
Sensex closing at over 17k points by month end.
 MONETARY INDICATORS

•The broad money supply expanded by 10.9 percent during the Apr-Dec period of 2009-10.

•The corresponding growth during the previous fiscal was 12.4 percent. The aggregate
deposits increased by 9.8 percent during April-December period of 2009-10.

•The bank credit went by up 7 percent over the period April to December 2009-10, while
the growth in corresponding period of the last fiscal was 12.1 percent.

FISCAL TRENDS

•The gross tax revenue collections during the period April-December 2009-10 amounted to Rs
4, 16, 094 crore a drop by 2.5 percent from Rs 4, 26,795 crore revenue collections over the
same period last fiscal.

•Over the period, April-December 2009-10 the growth in revenue from income tax was 12.2
percent and in case of corporate tax it was 16.8 percent.

•The fiscal deficit for the year 2009-10 was 6.8 percent.
 FOREIGN INVESTMENTS

•Foreign direct investment of USD 1.7 billion was received in November 2009 as against
the inflows of USD 2.3 billion in the previous month.

•There was a decline in the portfolio investments as well in November 09 vis-à-vis inflows
in the previous month.

•The cumulative investment inflows over the period April-November 2009-10 amounted
to USD 47.1 billion.
 FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES

•The forex reserves accumulated in November 2009 was USD 286.7 billion. Last
year the reserves had fallen to USD 247.6 billion in the same month.

EXCHANGE RATE

•The rupee witnessed slight appreciation in the month of January 2010 vis-à-vis the
USD.

•The Rupee Dollar exchange rate which averaged Rs 46.6/USD in the month of
December 2009 was at Rs 45.9/USD in January 2010.