Assignment for Chapter 3

Clue 1

Premise 1 (Observation): The

professor taught for two hours and
he didn’t notice that the mic was off.
Premise 2 (Observation): The class
was inactive.

Conclusion: The professor should

pay more attention to their students.

Argument pattern: causal argument

 Clue 2

Major premise: If citizens have vaccinated, they have permission to travel.

Minor premise: They have permission to travel.
Conclusion: Therefore, the citizens have vaccinated.
Argument pattern: HYPOTHETICAL SYLLOGISM
(affirming the consequent)
 Clue 3

Protective measures advised by WHO

Premise 1 (Observation): Every country has different types of viruses.

Premise 2 (Observation): Safety rules are optimal methods to get rid of
viruses.
Conclusion: no matter what the variants are, people have to follow the
same safety rules.
Argument pattern: Inductive generalization.
 Clue 4

(Source: AFP – France) (Source: vnexpress)

Premise + type:
Premise 1 (Observation 1): In France, they open the restaurants.
Premise 2 (Observation 2): In Vietnam, they shut down restaurants.
Conclusion: The pandemic in France is under control while Vietnam isn’t.
Argument pattern:
 Clue 5

Premise + type:
Premise 1 (Observation 1): Children are easily bored and tired of online learning.
Premise 2 (Observation 2): Adults are enthusiastic when they study online.
Conclusion: Children will be eager to learn more when they study offline, and adults prefer
what’s convenient to them.
Argument pattern: Inductive Generalization
 Clue 6
The Coronavirus Could Get Worse
Delta is far from the last variant. But what
shape the virus takes next depends on us.
By Katherine J. Wu

Premise 1 (observation): The COVID-19 is getting worse.

Premise 2 (observation): We don’t have enough vaccines for all the students.
Premise 3 (observation): We’ll still get infected even when we get vaccinated.
Conclusion: It is likely that we will not be able to meet each other on IU
campus in Semester 1.
Argument pattern: Predictive argument
 Critical Thinking

REVIEW OF CHAPTERS 1-3

 Review of Chapter 3

DEDUCTIVE PATTERNS INDUCTIVE PATTERNS

1. Hypothetical syllogism
2. Categorical syllogism
3. Argument from definition
4. Argument from elimination
5. Argument based on mathematics
1. Inductive generalization
2. Predictive argument
3. Argument from authority
4. Causal argument
5. Statistical argument
6. Argument from analogy
 Puzzle 1: Hypothetical argument

Two fathers and their sons went fishing.

Each caught one fish, but when they came home, there
were only 3 fish. How could this be?
(None of the fish was eaten, lost, or thrown back.)
Note: Write your answer in the form of a hypothetical argument; the conclusion is your answer.

If a grandfather went fishing with his son, there will be one father, one son,
and two fish.

If this son also went fishing with his own son, there will be one father, one
(younger) son, and one more fish (of the younger son).

So, if the grandfather, the father and the father’s son went fishing together,
there will be two fathers, two sons, and three fish.
Puzzle 2: Argument based on definition and elimination

A man on a park bench is looking at a small portrait. You ask

him, "Who is that in the picture?"
The man says, “I don’t have any brothers and sisters, and that
man's father is my father's son."
Question: Can you tell what person is in the picture?
Hint: On which assumption is your answer based?

“My father’s son” can be either me or my brother by definition.

Given: “I don’t have any brothers or sisters”
So, “my father’s son” is me. (argument from elimination)

-> “That man’s father” is “me”.

So, that man is my son. (argument from definition)

Note: The final conclusion is based on the assumption that all the people have
biological relationships, or the mothers do not cheat on the fathers. 
 Puzzle 3: Argument from elimination
Ms. Black, Ms. Brown, and Ms. Blonde meet
after 20 years since college. To live their wild
old days, they all dyed their hair.
Ms. Black exclaims, “Wow, it’s so cool that each
of us is having a hair color different from our
name!”
The lady with blonde hair nods, “Yep, Black, I Ms. Black Ms. Brown Ms. Blonde
can’t agree more!"

Question: Can you tell their names and their hair colors?

The lady with blonde hair calls “Ms. Black”, so her name can’t be Black.
It follows that her name is either Blonde or Brown.
However, she dyed her hair blonde, so her name can’t be Blonde.
Therefore, her name must be Brown.

-> Ms. Brown has blonde hair, so Ms. Black has brown hair, and Ms. Blonde has
black hair.
 Puzzle 4: Argument from mathematics
A flash flood will sweep the river in 18 minutes and no one can row across the river.
Four people want to get to the other side before the flash flood sweeps. They have only one boat
and one paddle (only one person can row) for two people. So, when two people get to the other
side, one person has to row the boat back to take another one. Each person can return only once
and row only twice.
Given:
A takes 2 minutes to row the boat across the river.
B takes 4 minutes.
C takes 7 minutes.
D takes 10 minutes.
Question: How can they row cross the river right before the flash flood sweeps?
Hint: Find an assumption to save the most time possible.

Assumption: Those who row(s) the fastest must row back to save time.
->First cross: A + B = 2 minutes (A rows)
+ First return A returns -> 2 mins + 2 mins = 4 mins valid or invalid?
+ Second cross: C + D: 4 + 7 = 11 mins (C rows) sound or unsound?
+ Second return: B returns: 11 + 4 = 15 mins strong or weak?
+ Third cross: A + B: 15 + 4 = 19 mins (B rows) cogent or uncogent?
 Puzzle 5: Argument from analogy

It smells like blue paint, pours like green paint, and its color
looks like a red truck.

What is it?

Red paint smells like blue paint. Red paint smells like blue paint of the same formula.

Red paint pours like green paint. Red paint pours like green paint of the same formula.

Red paint looks like a red truck. Red paint looks like a red truck of the same tone.

So, red paint smells like blue So, red paint smells like blue paint and pours like
paint, pours like green paint, and green paint of the same formula, and looks like a red
looks like a red truck. truck of the same tone.

Conclusion: Strong or weak? Stronger conclusion

 1

3
Strong & cogent
6 5 9 Strong & cogent

Stronger
Weak
9 7 &
cogent 27
 CHAPTERS 3 + 11

Inductive Reasoning

Notes:

In this lesson, we will not focus on theory. Instead, you’ll see

how critical thinking is applied in actual cases of reasoning.

My slides are extensions of your textbook contents about the

topics in Chapters 3 + 11.
 CONTENTS
Chapter 3. SIX COMMON INDUCTIVE ARGUMENT PATTERNS

1. Inductive generalization
2. Predictive argument
3. Argument from authority
4. Causal argument
5. Statistical argument
6. Argument from analogy

Chapter 11: EVALUATION OF INDUCTIVE ARGUMENTS

1. Inductive generalization (sampling argument)

Teacher: About 10 students in our class like Critical Thinking. Clearly,

Critical Thinking is a favorite subject for all students in our class. weak

Student: Sorry teacher, there are more than 100 students in our class. 

Teacher: It is likely that Critical Thinking is NOT a favorite subject for

most students in our class.  strong

Tips:
 Consider the correlation between the sample and the population.
 Be moderate with quantifiers like no, some, all, etc.
1. Inductive generalization (sampling argument)
Task 1: Give an example with real numbers to point out the reasoning
mistake.

A survey of Ryan’s class revealed that most students preferred

chocolate to other flavors of ice cream. Chocolate must be the
most popular flavor in the whole school.

Sample answer:

The argument assumes that Ryan’s class is a representative sample of the

entire school. If Ryan’s class has only 10 students in a vanilla-loving school of
300, Ryan’s school cannot represent the entire school.

Tips:
 Consider the correlation between the sample and the population.
 Be moderate with quantifiers like no, some, all, etc.
 2. Predictive argument (time shift argument)
The Covid-19 pandemic is still going on around the world.
This nightmare will never disappear! weak

Well, I’m not sure. Many countries have worked hard

produced effective vaccines.

The Covid-19 pandemic is still going on around the

world. This nightmare will probably not disappear in a
near future. strong

Tip: Consider if there are other fact/possibilities that may cause a change and
avoid strong confirmation.
 2. Predictive argument (time shift argument)
Task: Give a fact/possibility to point out the reasoning mistake.

(source: Vietnam.net)

Specifically, the simulation results based on data up to June 27, 2021

showed that the epidemic tended to nearly reach the peak at the end of
June and tended to decrease slightly in early July 2021. The compliance
with Directive 10 will make full epidemic control possible in August 2021.

(source: Asia Nikkei)

Tip: DO NOT use words of confirmation when making predictive arguments.

 3. Argument from authority
Which speaker?

Industry 4.0 is a trendy concept now. We should apply big data in

marketing for better profits.

Tip: Consider the appropriateness of the authority.

 3. Argument from authority
Task: Which authority do you decide to trust?

Vietnam vs. Australia (2022 World Cup Qualifying)

(Source: newsbeezer.com) (Source: Thai newspaper)

 Referee Al-Jassim deactivated social media account.

 Asian Football Confederation: Referees not allowed to make statements on social media.
(Source: Tuoitrecuoi Online)
Tip: Consider the popularity of the authority.
4. Causal argument

Country X is still struggling with huge cases of Covid-19 infections. Therefore,

the authorities should extend lockdown time to bring down the cases.

Other causes of increased rate of infections: low vaccination, cross-infections, etc.

strong or weak cogent or uncogent
cases of infection

GDP losses
lockdown time lockdown time

Tips: When arguing from correlation, make sure that there aren’t any other
factors that might account for the correlation.
4. Causal argument
My critical thinking students often stay online till the end
of the lesson. Clearly, they like to learn Critical Thinking.
weak

Honestly, we just log in Zoom then we enjoy a nap.

My critical thinking students often stay online till the end

of the lesson. I hope they like to learn Critical Thinking.

Tips: When arguing from correlation, make sure that there aren’t any other
factors that might account for the correlation.
 5. Statistical argument
Last year only 60% of the students at IU registered Critical
Thinking. This year, 80% registered this course. Clearly, there are
more Critical Thinking students at IU this year.

Weak

If there were 800 total students last year (60% of 800 = 480
registered) and this year there are only 500 total students, then
80% of 500 is just 400.

Tips: The subject of the premise (reference class) should be as much

like the subject of the conclusion as possible
 6. Analogy argument
Our European friends Our IU friends

(observation 1) Our European friends are exchange students, major in BA and

learn Critical Thinking.
(observation 2) Our IU friends major in BA and learn Critical Thinking.

(Conclusion) Therefore, our IU friends can be exchange students as well.

Tip: Consider relevant similarities.

 Another analogy argument
Task: Evaluate this argument.

Britt, 20 years old, got infected with the Covid-19

and he was tested negative after 20 days of home
quarantine. Brown is also 20 years old and just got
infected with the Covid-19. So Brown should stay
home for a 20-day quarantine, too.
weak

What if Brown is obese or have some critical health

problems like high blood pressure diabetes?

Tip: Consider dissimilarities to avoid weak conclusion.

 Review: Tips to achieve inductive strength

A. Give reasonable premises:

1. Inductive generalization 1. Large, representative samples

2. Predictive argument 2. Firm evidence for predictions

3. Argument from authority 3. Appropriate, popular authority

4. Causal argument 4. Careful observation of possible causes

5. Statistical argument 5. Consistent reference class

6. Argument from analogy 6. Relevant similarities

B. Avoid extreme conclusions:

- Do not use absolute words:
‘certainly’, ‘obviously’, ‘absolutely’…
- Use ‘probably’, ‘likely’, ‘chances’…
 FURTHER APPLICATION

Evaluate these inductive arguments

with critical questions.
 1. Inductive generalization
Students in University X was going to vote for a student president and the election
organizers held a survey before the election day. 55% of the surveyed students
from the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th years said that they would vote for Peter Smith and 45%
would vote for the other competitor. Based on the survey results, the election
organizers concluded that Peter Smith would win the election.

Hint: Check sample size and representation.

Sample critical questions:

1. What is the ratio of surveyed students/voting students?

2. Is University X a four-year or six-year (medical) university?

 2. Predictive argument

“AZ company began making loss two years ago. There have
not been any signs of profits until now. The management
will declare bankruptcy in the next 2 years.”

Hint: Point out possible changes in the future.

Sample critical questions:

1. Are the management in the last two years and the next two years are the same?

2. Has the economy been in a crisis and are there any signs of recovery now?

3. Will there be any governmental support for declining businesses?

32
 3. Argument from authority

“In order to raise the levels of students’ English skills, all

schools must adopt the “Back to Basics” English program.
According to ABC News Agency, the Ministry of Education
developed this program to improve English skills among
students nationwide.”
Hint: Question the reliability and appropriateness of the authority

1. Is ABC News Agency a trustworthy source of information?

2. Is the Ministry of Education always reliable with its leadership?

33
 3. Causal argument
“Parents of young children are becoming increasingly concerned about how
violence on television influences a child’s behavior and attitudes. During the
past year, the ratings for Real Crime, one of the most popular prime-time
shows, have steadily declined. Therefore, in order to boost our prime-time
ratings, we should replace Real Crime with a comedy show for children.”

Hint: Question the correlation of the two factors

1. Do children watch Real Crime?

ratings of Real Crime

2. Does Real Crime really show violence?

3. Have the ratings declined because of other factors
like the changed hours or increased fee, etc.?
4. Will children watch the comedy show?
parents’ concern
34
 4. Statistical argument

“Only 50% of country X’s undergraduate-level students are employed full-time within
one year of graduation while about 90% of its graduate-level students find employment
after graduation. It is obvious that country X has more job opportunities for those with
higher qualifications.”

Hint: Check the reference class

1. In how many years were 90% of graduate-level students surveyed

(compared with one-year survey of undergraduate-level students)?

2. How many undergraduate-level students and graduate-level students are

there in country X?

35
 5. Argument from analogy
“Every year, ABC High School wins the District’s student Math competition.
The average salary of teachers at ABC is greater than at any other school in
the District. Hence, in order for XYZ High School students to improve their
scores on the City’s Math competition, XYZ should begin awarding bonuses to
its teachers.”

Hint: Check the similarities and dissimilarities

1. Were ABC students highly intelligent?

2.Was the District’s Math competition not too difficult compared to the City’s
Math competition?
3. Are XYZ teachers and students at the same levels of those in ABC school?
4. Are bonuses as a good encouragement as a salary rise?
36
 FURTHER APPLICATION

Critical Reasoning in MCQ Questions

Some Typical Question Types

1. Assumption
2. Weaken
3. Strengthen
 1. Assumption Causal argument
Josh has twenty years of typing experience behind him; therefore, if
you are looking for an efficient typist to enter your data into the
new system, you need to look no further.

The speaker assumes that____.

A. Josh’s job profile is the best that the new employer is going to get

B. Josh is an outstandingly fast and accurate typist

C. Josh will fit well into the new office
D. Twenty years of practice ensures typing efficiency

The correct answer is (D).

 2. Weaken
Argument from analogy

A scientist planted two groups of plants under identical conditions of light,

temperature, and water. Every day he would play sound effects of
thunderstorms to one of the groups of plants and sounds of city traffic to the
other. The group to which he played thunderstorms all died within a few
weeks, but the other group developed well during the experiment. He
therefore concluded that the sound of city traffic is more effective for helping
plants grow than is the sound of thunderstorms.
Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the scientist’s
conclusion?
(A) The scientist put different types of plants in each group.
(B) The light affecting the plants changed according to the time of day.
(C) The plants with city traffic sounds died several weeks after the experiment.
(D) The plants were all purchased at the same time.

The correct answer is (A).

 3.Strengthen Causal argument

A popular Internet service provider changed its billing system, charging customers per
each connection to the system rather than per total hours connected. According to
the company, under the new system, customers will spend more time connected to
the Internet while paying the same or smaller amounts.
Which one of the following statements, if true, would most strengthen the
conclusion of the company?

(A) Customers will be happier if the company’s Internet service is stable.

(B) Customers will drop because the company’s Internet service is poor.
(C) The more time spent online costs customers more money.
(D) The company’s employees also support the change in billing.

The correct answer is (A).

 MCQ PRACTICE
Identify the argument pattern and select the best answer.
Question 1 Argument from generalization
Photography is no longer an art form. Nowadays everyone has
access to digital cameras that only need to be pointed at the subject
in order to generate a perfect image.

The writer of the argument apparently assumes that

A. the selection of the subject is not an artistic factor in photography

B. digital cameras will continue to improve in quality

C. digital cameras can never go wrong
D. photography with all other types of camera is an art form

The correct answer is A

Question 2 Causal argument
Recent studies have highlighted the harmful effects of additives in
food (colors, preservatives, flavor enhancers etc.). There are no
synthetic substances in the foods we produce at Munchon Foods – we
use only natural ingredients. Hence you can be sure you are
safeguarding your family’s health when you buy our products.

Which of the following, if true, would most weaken the conclusion of

Munchon Foods?
A. Some synthetic substances are not harmful.
B. Some natural substances found in foods can be harmful.
C. Food without additives is unlikely to taste good.
D. Without preservatives some foods could cause harm.

The correct answer is B

Question 3 Causal argument

A fruit known as amla in certain parts of Asia is an excellent source of vitamin C. A small

quantity of the fruit added to salads provides almost all the daily requirement of this

vitamin. However, the fruit is very sour. A new process designed to remove most of the

sour taste will make the fruit acceptable to American tastes. We are therefore starting to

grow this fruit for sale in the United States.

The argument above assumes all of the following except that

A. Americans generally won’t eat very sour foods

B. the new process does not

Theremove a significant
correct answer D
part ofisthe vitamin content
Question 4 Causal argument
Anton: I sold my house on an Internet site last year and was happy with the
price. I got a speedy sale and the cost of advertising was low. I would advise
you to avoid real estate agents.
Barbie: The real estate agent gets me the best price for my house because he
gets a commission based on the selling price. Therefore, I will certainly use
an agent rather than trying to sell the house on the Internet.

Which of the following strengthen Barbie’s opinion?

A. Houses of the same value often obtain a lower price when sold online.
B. Very few houses are sold successfully via real estate agents.
C. Nearly no buyers pay the agent to find them a cheap house.
D. Internet sites offer many add-on benefits besides net prices.

The correct answer is A

Question 5
French cuisine is highly regarded all over the world. Yet in Paris there
are more American restaurants selling burgers and fries (junk food)
than there are in any other European capital city. Obviously the French
are very fond of ‘junk food’.

Which of the following, if true, would most weaken the author’s

conclusion?
A. There are also a larger number of Lebanese restaurants in Paris than
in other European capital cities
B. Very few French tourists eat in New York burger restaurants
C. Junk food is actually has high nutritional value when eaten enough
D. There are a large number of American tourists in Paris who eat at
burger restaurants

The correct answer is D

 A sample question in Quiz 1

"Don't make fast food your regular meal plans. Overeating fast food brings you weight
and health problems." causal argument

Which of the following has the same argument pattern?

A. The national agency just penalized a poor quality restaurant in our city. This
agency controls food safety. I’ll never eat at that restaurant again. argument from
authority
B. KFCs sell fast food to their regular customers, causing them weight and health
problems. So, all fast food restaurants cause their regular customers weight and
health problems. argument from generalization

C. Watching too much TV makes teenagers passive. Therefore, parents should

control their children's entertainment habits. causal argument

D. All extreme fast food eaters are obese. All obese people have health problems.
Therefore, all extreme fast food eaters have health problems. categorical syllogism
HAVE FUN WITH QUIZ 1 

48