CHAPTER 2

PROBABILITY.
 GROUP 3 :

Nguyễn Trần Vĩnh Phú

Lê Tân
Dương Hoàng Anh
Nguyễn Tấn Tài

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 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY !

In an experiment, consider two events A and B. The probability that

event B occurs, provided that event A has occurred before, is denoted
by:
P(B|A)

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Example :

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 Formuler

The conditional probability of an event B given an event A,

denoted as , is:
P
  (A ∩B)
P(B|A) =
P (A )
P(A) > 0

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Example :

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 MULTIPLICATION AND TOTAL PROBABILITY RULES
✘
Multiplication
  rule determines the joint probability of two events.
= = .

The total probability rule determines the unconditional probability of an event in

terms of probabilities conditional on scenarios.
=
= + +…+ .
Where the scenarios E1, E2,…,En are many mutually exclusive and exhautive.

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Example :

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 INDEPENDENCE
In some cases, the conditional probability of might equal P(B). In this special case, knowledge that the
outcome of the experiment is in event A does not affect the probability that the outcome is in event B.

 Two events are independent if any one of the following equivalent statements is true:

(1 ) =
(2) =
(3) =

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Example :

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Thanks for listening!

Any questions?

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