FA C U LT Y O F S C I E N C E S A N D L I T E R AT U R E .

M AT H E M AT I C S D E PA R T M E N T
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LEVEL (3)
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY
P R E PA R E D B Y: A R YA M B E N T M O H A M M E D .
AMAL HASSAN.
S U P E R V I S E D B Y : D R . WA L A A M A R I O U D

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
example:
• Toss a balanced die once and record the number on
the top face.
• Let E be the event that a 1 shows on the top face.
• Let F be the event that the number on the top face is
odd.
– What is P(E)?
– What is the Probability of the event E if we are told that
the number on the top face is odd, that is, we know that
the event F has occurred?

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
• Key idea: The original sample space no longer
applies.
• The new or reduced sample space is
S = {1, 3, 5}
• Notice that the new sample space consists only of
the outcomes in F.
• P(E occurs given that F occurs) = 1 / 3
• Notation: P (E |F ) = 1 / 3

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

• Definition: The conditional probability of E given

F is the probability that an event, E, will occur
given that another event, F, has occurred

P( E  F ) if P( F )  0
P( E | F ) 
P( F )

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
P( A  B)
P( A B) 
P( B)
A B

S
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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
• If the outcomes of an experiment are
equally likely, then:

number of outcomes in E  F
P( E | F ) 
number of outcomes in F

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

• Example:
Earned degrees in the United States in recent
year B M P D Total
Female 616 194 30 16 856
Male 529 171 44 26 770
Total 1145 365 74 42 1626

529
P ( Male | B )   0.4620
1145

770
P( Male )   0.4735
1626 8
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

P( E  F )
P( E | F ) 
P( F )
Conditional Probability can be rewritten as follows

P( E  F )  P( E | F ) * P( F )

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Example:
E: dollar falls in value against the yen
F: supplier demands renegotiation of contract
P ( E )  0.40
P ( F | E )  0.8
Find P ( E  F)
P ( E  F )  0.8 * 0.4  0.32

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SOME MORE EXAMPLES TO ILLUSTRATE THE USE
OF THE FORMULA OF CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY.
• Example:
A box contains black chips and white chips. A person selects two
chips without replacement. If the probability of selecting a black chip
and a white chip is 15/56 , and the probability of selecting a black chip
on the first draw is 3/8 , find the probability of selecting the white chip
on the second draw, given that the first chip selected was a black chip.
SOLUTION:
N= parking in a no-parking zone t= getting a ticket
Then:
P( N  T ) 0.06
P(T | N )    0.30
P ( N ) of getting
So, Sam has a 0.30 probability 0.20 a parking ticket, given that
he parked in a no-parking zone.

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 SOME MORE EXAMPLES TO ILLUSTRATE THE USE
OF THE FORMULA OF CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY.
• Example:
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the
armed forces should be permitted to participate in combat. The results of
the survey are shown.

Find these probabilities:

a. the respondent answered yes, given that the respondent was a female.
b. the respondent was a male, given that the respondent answered no.

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SOLUTION:
Let: M= respondent was a male Y= respondent answered yes
F= respondent was a female N= respondent answered no
a. The problem is to find P(Y|F). The rule states:
P( F  Y )
P(Y | N ) 
P( F )
The probability P(F and Y) is the number of females who responded yes,
divided by the total number of respondents:
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P( F Y ) 
100
The probability P(F) is the probability of selecting a female:
50
P( F ) 
100

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SOLUTION:
Then:
P( F  Y ) 8 / 100
P (Y | N )  
P( F ) 50 / 100
8 50 8 100 4
    
100 100 100 50 25

b. The problem is to find P(M|N).

P ( M  N ) 18 / 100
P( M | N )  
P( N ) 60 / 100
18 60 18 100 3
    
100 100 100 60 10

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 PROBABILITIES FOR “AT LEAST”
• The multiplication rules can be used with the complementary event
rule to simplify solving probability problems involving “at least.”
• The complement event rule:

The following Examples illustrate how this done:

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 EXAMPLES
• Example:
A game is played by drawing 4 cards from an ordinary deck and
replacing each card after it is drawn. Find the probability that at least 1
ace is drawn.

SOLUTION:
Let E= at least 1 ace is drawing and E = no ace drawn. Then:
48 48 48 48
P( E )   
52 52 52 52
12 12 12 12 20,736
    
13 13 13 13 28,561
Hence;
P( E )  1  P( E )
20,736 7825
P( winnin)  1  P (losring )  1    0.27
28,561 28,561
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 EXAMPLES
• Example:
A coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probability of getting at least 1 tail.

SOLUTION:
It is easier to find the probability of the complement of the event, which is
“all heads,” and then subtract the probability from 1 to get the probability
of at least 1 tail.
P( E )  1  P( E )

P(at least 1 tail)= 1-P(all heads).

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1 1
  
P(all heads)=  2  32
Hence, 1 31
1 
P(at least 1 tail)= 32 32
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.REFERENCES
• https://www.ucl.ac.uk/~rmjbale/Stat/2.pdf
• https://www2.isye.gatech.edu/isyebayes/bank/handout1.pdf
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHfhpAhGdvY&t=330s
• Elementary statistics : a step by step approach / Allan G. Bluman. —
7th ed.

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