Research Presentation

A System Dynamics Analysis of the Impacts of

Climate Change on the Rice Supply Chain in West
Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia
02nd December, 2015

School of Management
School of Geography
Victoria University of Wellington

Presenter: Muhamad Khairul Bahri

Supervisors: A/Prof. Robert Cavana (School of Management)
Prof. James Renwick (SGEES)
Prof. Lawrence Corbett (School of Management)

1
Introduction
West Nusa Tenggara (WNT)

Source: BPS,
2
2010
 Introduction : West Nusa Tenggara (WNT)
 Population : 4.5 million people;

 Location: 115046’ - 11905’ East Longitude and 8010’ - 905’ South Latitude;

 Rainy seasons: November-April, Dry Seasons: May-October

85 % paddy is planted in rainy seasons;

 The highest temperature is in November and the lowest one is in

June and July  paddy growing seasons have higher temperatures
than the rest seasons;

 Maximum temperature: 30-33oC vs the threshold of max temp 35oC;

 Minimum temperature: 21-25 oC vs the threshold of min temp 22oC;

 Annual rainfall:1,600 mm/year;

 Climate cannot be controlled !!!

3
Source: BPS, 2012
WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT ?
WEST NUSA TENGGARA STATISTICS

 WEST NUSA TENGGARA IS THE NATIONAL HOST FOR RICE SUPPLY,

ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN INDONESIA, PARTICULARLY BALI & EAST
NUSA TENGGARA (Lantarsih, 2010).

 AGRICULTURE INVOLVES 45% TOTAL EMPLOYMENT

 AGRICULTURE CONSISTS 25% TOTAL ECONOMIC OUTPUT

 WITH JAVA AND BALI, HOLDS 60% OF INDONESIA’S PADDY OUTPUT

(BPS NTB, 2015; WIDIARTA, 2005).

4
Literature Review : SUPPLY CHAIN UNCERTAINTY
I. A DEFINITION by Van der VORST & BEULENS (2002);
“Supply chain uncertainty refers to decision making situations in the supply chain in
which the decision maker does not know definitely what to decide as he is indistinct
about the objectives; lacks information about (or understanding of) the supply chain or
its environment; lacks information processing capacities; is unable to accurately
predict the impact of possible control actions on supply chain behavior; or, lacks
effective control actions (non- controllability)”.

II. TWO SOURCES OF SUPPLY CHAIN UNCERTAINTY;

a. Inherent (frequent) uncertainties: mismatch supply & demand because of climate;

The agrifood supply chain highly depends on climates  a climate condition is an

inherent source of supply chain uncertainties (Verdouw, 2010, Van der Vorst &
Beulens, 2002)

b. External sources: disrupting normal activities (infrequent events such as

terrorism, SARS, Asian monetary crisis 97/98) (Verdouw, 2010; Van der Vorst &
Beulens, 2002)

5
 (SCU=supply chain uncertainties)
A SUMMARY REVIOUS RESEARCH
Research Focus
Research Descriptions SCU Rainfall Temperature &
Change Rainfall Changes
Hasan (2010) points out that the second phase of the rice supply X - -
chain is strongly vulnerable to climate as it consists of rice
production in farming areas in which climate, technology and
labour interact each other.
Indonesian rice is vulnerable to ENSO (El-Nino Southern X -
Oscillation) as ENSO could significantly reduce rainfall and then
it can delay rice planting seasons (Naylor, Falcon, Wada, &
Rochberg, 2001, 2002; Falcon, Naylor, Smith, Burke, &
McCullough, 2004; Naylor & Mastrandea, 2009).
A higher precipitation can cause high paddy moisture (rice is X -
unhusked paddy), leading to a longer paddy drying time
(Daulay, 2005; Suheiti, 2007; Badan Penelitian dan
Pengembangan Pertanian, 2005)
Although some studies applying system dynamics successfully X X -
investigate impacts of climate change and supply chain
uncertainties, they only focus on one uncertainty dimension (Adl
& Parvizian, 2009) and they do not discuss effects of climate
change on the rice supply chain (Koca & Sverdrup, 2012;
Kopainsky et al., 2013)
6
 Literature Review: A RESEARCH GAP
 This paper is similar to Hasan (2010), but this notifies two new
contributions:

 The first is to use a system dynamics approach and;

 The second is to assess the effects of both rainfall and temperature

change as other studies (Adl & Parvizian, 2009; Hasan, 2010) solely
explore impacts of rainfall change on the supply chain.

 Because a higher temperature can negatively influence rice yield

(Wassmann et al.,2009; Jagadish et al.,2010; Welch et al., 2010),
impacts of high temperature on the rice supply chain should be sought.

7
 RESEARCH QUESTIONS
 A research question:
As inherent uncertainty sources,
How climate change and climate variability influence the rice
supply chain in the West Nusa Tenggara province ?

Additional Questions:
1). How will climate change and climate variability such as rainfall
and temperature variabilities, affect supply chain uncertainty
such as process and supply ?
 
2). What are the key supply chain uncertainties associated with a
changing climate ?

8
Literature
The first phase:
Review: THE INDONESIAN RICE SUPPLY CHAIN
distributing inputs to
farmers

The second phase:

interaction climate,
production factors

The third phase:

distributing rice to
customers

(Mardiyanto et al., 2005; Sutrisno, 2004; Iswari, 2013; Jamal, et al.,

9 2007; Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian, 2010; Badan
Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian, 2011)
Literature Review
Climate Change & Climate Variability

Long term average value tends to increase

CLIMATE CHANGE (MAY INCLUDE CLIMATE VARIABILITY)THE MAIN CAUSE IS INCREASING CO2 CONCENTRATION
DUE TO HUMAN ACITIVITIES
Temperature, rainfall

time

CLIMATE VARIABILITY


Long term average value tends to be constant

time Source: own

source
A CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM: FARMING AND DRYING AREAS
available land
( wetland)
-

B1 fraction of paddy
a fraction of new farming
delay new farming los s es after drying
area ( wetland)
area( wetland) +

rice farming area

- ( wetland)
cropping intens ity +
( wetland) + +
paddy in farmers fraction of paddy
s aved by farmers
labour( wetland) + -
+ + -
potential paddy+ de sire d s e lling of
+ harves ted area
yield( irrigated) . B3 B4 fa rm e rs ' pa ddy
+ + ( wetland)
paddy productivity
( wetland)
paddy growing day
cropping + -
( wetland) + + effect of s eas onal rainfall
intens ity( wetland) paddy in brokers + des ired dried actual paddy
on the actual paddy
delta minimum paddy. mois ture.
mois ture
temperature - paddy production
Augus t S OI. input paddy wants
( dryland) .
( wetland) to be dried. +
+
- - required paddy
-
delta s eed B5 drying time
timing of mons oon +
( dryland) - +
ons et total paddy +
+ delta paddy
production total dried paddy.
productivity.( dryland) - -
+ drying intens ity
+
paddy +
production( dryland)-
paddy productivity + available drying
( dryland) potential paddy days
production( dryland) + total drying + potential dried+ +
paddy growing day drying capacity each
capacity paddy.
+ ( dryland) 100m2 drying area
cropping intens ity delay new farming + drying area in jan augus t rainfall
( dryland) area ( dryland)
drying area in s mall large RM
and medium RM + +
+ harves ted area. +
+
( dryland) total drying area +
fraction of new drying
+ area in large RM
fraction of new drying area
- in s mall and medium RM
+ rice farming area available land
a fraction of new ( dryland) B2 ( dryland)
farming area
( dryland) . -

11
A CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM: A MILLING AREA
<total dried milling factor
paddy.>
+ +
des ired milled
paddy
+

input paddy wants +

to be milled. +
+
B6 rice s upply
- total milled paddy.

total paddy milling

s tandard milling capacity time. s tandard milling capacity
lifetime of milling total rice millers '
per machine. ( s mall) + per machine. ( large)
machine. ( s mall) + - capacity
+
rice millers capacity. +
- + ( s mall) +
+
total milling rice millers capacity
damaged milling B7
machines ( s mall) ( large)
machines s mall + rice millers capacity
+
( medium) + +
+ s tandard milling capacity
per machine. ( medium) + total milling damaged milling
R1 machines ( large) B9
machines ( large) .
+
+ - +
+
damaged milling total milling machines
fraction of new milling new milling
machines ( medium) B8 ( medium) R3
machines . ( s mall) + machines ( s mall) . lifetime of milling
+ +
- machine .( large)
+

R2 new milling
lifetime of milling
machines ( large) .
machine. ( medium)
+ +
new milling machines
fraction of new milling
+ ( medium) .
machines . ( large)

fraction of new milling

machines . ( medium)

12
A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL: The FARMING AREA
delay of new farming
land (wetland) a fraction of new
initial available land farming area (wetland)

available rice farming area

land (wetland)
new farming area
(dryland).
delay of new farming
area (dryland) new farming area
(dryland)
a fraction new farming
area (unirrigated)
rice farming area
(dryland) August SOI.
constant crop <Time>
<unit time> coefficient crop intensity <rice farming area
intensity (wetland)> lookup August unit time
<Time> SOI
harvest area
cropping intensity timing of
(wetland)
seasonal rainfall (wetland) monsoon-onset timing of monsoon
onset (days)
potential paddy
production (wetland) <converter day to
dummy1995 ci delta mintemp
paddy year>
productivity paddy-growing day
(wetland) actual paddy
production (wetland) (wetland)
<Time> delta paddy
productivity (wetland) total paddy a fraction paddy loss
<timing of production after drying.
monsoon-onset>
ci delta labour

labour (wetland) paddy in farmers.

lookup labour delta labour actual paddy
(wetland) (wetland) production (dryland)
<unit time>
<TIME STEP>
paddy growing day
seasonal min temp lookup seasonal (dryland)
mintemp
potential paddy cropping intensity
seed (dryland) delta min temp production (dryland)
(dryland)
lookup seed
<unit time> harvest area
(dryland)
<Time> (dryland)

dummy2008a delta seed <rice farming area

(dryland) (dryland)>
paddy
dummy2008b productivity
(dryland)
delta paddy
productivity (dryland)

cu delta mintemp

cu delta seed
13
SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL : The DRYING AREA
<lookup seasonal constant jan aug rainfall
rainfall.>
<seasonal rainfall> <Time> coefficient jan aug rainfall

unit rainfall constant avail <Time>

Jan-August
drying days Rainfall
lookup seasonal effect seasonal rainfall coefficient avail
rainfall. on paddy moisture drying days
fraction of new drying
actual paddy area large RM
moisture level
standard moisture
available drying new drying area
<unit time> days drying capacity each large RM
required paddy 100m2 drying area
drying time
drying intensity
total drying drying area
effect actual paddy
moisture on paddy drying capacity total drying area in large RM
time unit day
potential dried
<total paddy <a fraction paddy loss paddy converter day to converter km2 to
production> after drying.> m2
year drying area in
small and
medium RM
ratio total dried paddy desired dried
and paddy production <Time>
paddy
new drying area in
SM RM
.total paddy wants fraction of new drying
input paddy wants to be dried total dried paddy area small medium RM
to be dried

<paddy in average paddy

farmers.> batch to dry

<TIME STEP>
paddy in broker's
paddy to brokers stocks paddy go for
drying

fraction of paddy
saved-by farmers
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SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL : The MILLING AREA
desired milled .milling factor.
paddy.

<total dried <TIME STEP> average paddy batch

paddy> to be milled

total paddy wants

input paddy to be to be milled.
milled total milled paddy

rice miller capacity .total paddy

milling time. total rice supply
(large)
total milling
machines (large). standard milling capacity
new milling damaged milling per machine (small)
machines (large) machines (large) total rice millers
standard milling capacity capacity
per machine (large) rice miller capacity
a fraction of new milling lifetime of milling
(small)
machines (large) machine (large)

standard milling capacity rice miller capacity

<Time> per machine (medium) (medium)
total milling
new milling machines (small.) damaged milling
total milling machines (small)
machines(small)
new milling machines machines (medium.)
damaged milling
(medium)
machines (medium). a fraction of new milling
machines (small) lifetime of milling
a fraction of new milling lifetime of milling
machine (small)
machines (medium) machine (medium)
<Time>
<Time>

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VALIDATION OF A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
Parameters MAPE R2
Paddy yield (wetland) 1.85% 99%
Actual paddy production (wetland) 7.51% 89%
Harvested area (wetland) 5% 86%
Paddy yield (dryland) 2.24% 98%
Actual paddy production (dryland) 9% 89%
Harvested area (dryland) 5.9% 93%
Table 1. a FARMING area

Parameters MAPE R2
Total drying area (in large rice millers) 7.3% 94%
Total drying area (in small and medium rice millers) 6.5% 94%
Table 2. a DRYING area

Parameters MAPE R2

Total milling machines (large) 7.45% 94%

Total milling machines (medium) 6.6% 91%

Total milling machines (small) 7.46% 94%

Table 3. a MILLING area

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 SIMULATION OF A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
lookup seasonal mintemp lookup seasonal rainfall.
30
5,000

27.5 3,750

mm/year
celcius

25 2,500

22.5 1,250

20 0
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Time (year) Time (year)
"lookup seasonal rainfall." : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45
lookup seasonal mintemp : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45 "lookup seasonal rainfall." : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP85
lookup seasonal mintemp : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP85

timing of monsoon onset (days)

cropping intensity (wetland)
40
2

20
1.75

0
days
1/year

1.5

1.25 -20

1 -40
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Time (year) Time (year)
17
"cropping intensity (wetland)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45 "timing of monsoon onset (days)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45
"cropping intensity (wetland)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP85 "timing of monsoon onset (days)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP85
 SIMULATION OF A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
paddy productivity anomaly (wetland and dryland) vs (min temp) paddy production (wetland) vs min temp
0.2 tonnes/(ha*year) 6 M tonnes/year
30 celcius 30 celcius
0.08 tonnes/(ha*year) 40 days

0 tonnes/(ha*year) 3 M tonnes/year
25 celcius 25 celcius
0.03 tonnes/(ha*year) 0 days

-0.2 tonnes/(ha*year) 0 tonnes/year

20 celcius 20 celcius
-0.02 tonnes/(ha*year) -40 days
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Time (year) Time (year)
"delta paddy productivity (wetland)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45 tonnes/(ha*year) "actual paddy production (wetland)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45 tonnes/year
lookup seasonal mintemp : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45 celcius lookup seasonal mintemp : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45 celcius
"delta paddy productivity (dryland)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45 tonnes/(ha*year) "timing of monsoon onset (days)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45 days

paddy production (dryland)

4 M tonnes/year
30 celcius
40 days

2 M tonnes/year
25 celcius
0 days

0 tonnes/year
20 celcius
-40 days
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Time (year)
18
"actual paddy production (dryland)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45
lookup seasonal mintemp : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45
tonnes/year
celcius
"timing of monsoon onset (days)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45 days
 SIMULATION OF A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
available drying days total dried paddy
200 300,000

150 225,000

tonnes/year
150,000
100
days

75,000
50

0
0 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 Time (year)
Time (year) total dried paddy : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45
available drying days : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45 total dried paddy : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP85
available drying days : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP85
ratio total dried paddypaddy production and paddy production
January_August rainfall vs available drying days 4
200 days
3,000 mm/year
3

100 days 2
1,500 mm/year

0 days
0 mm/year 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
Time (year) Time (year)
19
available drying days : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45 days ratio total dried paddypaddy production and paddy production : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45
"Jan-August Rainfall" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45 mm/year ratio total dried paddypaddy production and paddy production : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP85
 SIMULATION OF A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
available land rice farming area (wetland)
800,000 600,000

600,000 450,000

300,000

ha
400,000
ha

150,000
200,000

0
0 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 Time (year)
Time (year) "rice farming area (wetland)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45
"rice farming area (wetland)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP85
available land : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45
available land : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP85

rice farming area (dryland) rice farming area (wetland)

500,000 600,000

375,000 450,000

300,000
ha

250,000
ha

150,000
125,000

0
0
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 Time (year)
Time (year) "rice farming area (wetland)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45
20
"rice farming area (dryland)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP45
"rice farming area (dryland)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP85
"rice farming area (wetland)" : projections_GFDL_CM3_RCP85
CONCLUSIONS
 High minimum temperature tends to decrease paddy

productivity and paddy production;

 Low seasonal rainfall tends to delay and decrease paddy

production;
 High rainfall tends to increase paddy moisture, leading to

longer paddy-drying time;

 High rainfall tends to decrease available drying days,

leading to a lower dried paddy;

 Without the mitigating effort, the negative effect of climate

(minimum temperature and seasonal rainfall) is likely to be

worse;
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 Thank you very much for your attention!

Questions or Suggestions?

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