Model Development For Entry Capacity Estimation of Selected Roundabouts of Nepal

TRIBHUVAN UNIVERSITY
6 IOE Graduate Conference

th INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
May 2019 ENGINEERING
M.SC. IN TRANSPORTATION
Model development for entry capacity estimation of

selected roundabouts of Nepal.
BIPIN GYAWALI
073-MSTRE-253
CONTENTS
• Introduction
• Literature Review
• Methodology
• Analysis of data
• Conclusion & Recommendations
6th IOE Graduate Conference, May 2019 2

INTRODUCTION
Background
• Indo- HCM 2017 defines a roundabout as a specialized form of
at-grade intersection where vehicles from the converging arms are
forced to move round a central island in one direction in an
orderly and regimented manner and move/weave out of the
roundabout into their desired direction
Definitions
• The basic definitions and terminologies associated with the
roundabouts and determination of its capacity

INTRODUCTION
Background
Entry Flow: The traffic inflow from an approach to a roundabout.
Conflicting Circulating flow: The volume of traffic that is
circulating in the non-weaving section and is conflicting with the
entry traffic at the intersection from different approaches accounted
for in a classified manner for all the approaches.
Headway: It is the time between two following vehicles and is
measured from the first vehicle’s front bumper to the following
vehicle’s front bumper.
Gap: A gap is defined as the time span between two consecutive
circulating vehicles that create conflict with an entering vehicle. The
described time span is measured only when the entering driver is at
the yield line when the gap begins.
INTRODUCTION
Background
Critical Gap: Critical gap is defined as the minimum headway in the
circulating flow when an entering vehicle can safely enter a
roundabout, assuming all entering drivers are consistent .
Follow-up Time: Follow-up time is defined as the time span
between two queued vehicles entering the circulating stream in the
same gap. The follow-up time is the headway between the vehicles
entering.
Capacity estimation: Several models are being used to estimate the
capacity of roundabouts. Almost all of them can be grouped under
three distinct families, viz.
– weaving maneuver-based models,
– gap-acceptance-based models, and
– regression models based on traffic and geometric data.
INTRODUCTION
Background
Weaving maneuver based Model
• The initial formula for the capacity estimation of a traffic rotary
was given by Wardrop (1957).
• IRC-65 (1976) outlines the method for the design of a rotary. This
is a weaving maneuver-based model based on Wardrop’s equation.
• Both of the above-mentioned models basically provide estimation

of the capacity of weaving section.

INTRODUCTION
• Background
Gap Acceptance Based models
These models are based on the availability of gaps to vehicles and
the circulating traffic flow around the central island. The variables
mostly used are critical gaps, circulating traffic flows, headways, and
follow-up times. Most prominent models includes
• HCM -2010 based model

• Indo HCM 2017 based model

INTRODUCTION
• Background
Regression based models
Regression based models are based on the entry flow, circulating
traffic flow around the roundabouts and the geometrical parameters
like entry width, diameter of central island , approach width etc.
Some methods that has been developed are:
– TRRL (UK) linear regression model
– Jordanian Model
– Malaysian Model
– Indian Models

INTRODUCTION
Background
• With emergence of offside priority rule, in which, the circulating
traffic is given priority over the entering vehicles, capacity
estimates started to focus on entry capacity of approaches rather
than that of the weaving section.
• Gap Acceptance models are simpler as far as the number of
variables is concerned. But the estimation of these variables is
tedious. Moreover, it is difficult to estimate critical gaps and
follow-up-times at different locations and in different cities
because these are traffic and location specific. Such models are
useful when behavior of the driver is completely known.

INTRODUCTION
Hence , a simpler regression based models might be more useful in
resource constraint countries like Nepal where driver behavior is not
known completely.
Research Questions
• What is the Appropriate Regression Model for estimation of Entry
Capacity of a Roundabout in Nepalese Conditions?
Research Objectives
• To determine the regression model to estimate entry capacity of a
roundabout in Nepalese conditions

INTRODUCTION
Limitations
• The entry flow in roundabout is affected by Pedestrian flow in the
crosswalks near the roundabout. The pedestrian flow has been
discarded in the analysis as the pedestrian flow in these selected
roundabout did not offer much hindrance to the entry of the
vehicles.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Weaving maneuver based Model
• The initial formula for the capacity estimation of a traffic rotary
was given by Wardrop (1957).
• IRC-65 (1976) outlines the method for the design of a rotary. This
is a weaving maneuver-based model based on Wardrop’s equation.
• The practical capacity is given by the formulae
Q p= ¿ ¿


LITERATURE REVIEW
• e1 is the width of the carriageway at the entry and e2 is the
Where,
carriageway width at exit. , i.e, (e1+e2)/ 2
• w is the weaving width,
• l is the length of weaving,
• and p is the proportion of weaving traffic to the non-weaving
traffic
p=

LITERATURE REVIEW

LITERATURE REVIEW
• Gap
Acceptance Based models
The HCM Model:
The HCM 2010 method proposes an exponential function based on
gap acceptance theory for evaluating the entry capacity of single-lane
and two-lane roundabouts.
C =A.
where C is lane capacity (veh/h),
Vc is conflicting or circulating flow rate (veh/h).
The parameters A and B of the above equation are calculated with the
help of critical headway and follow-up headway as follows:

LITERATURE REVIEW
•• Gap
Acceptance Based models
A =, B=
• Where tc denotes critical headway,

and tf is follow-up headway.
As per HCM 2010, the default parameters for A and B are as follows: A = 1,130,
B = 0.0010 for single-lane entry and single-lane circulating stream
(corresponding to tf = 3.19 s and tc = 5.19 s) and
for a two-lane entry and multilane circulating stream A = 1,130, B = 0.0007 for
right lane (corresponding to tf = 3.19 s and tc = 4.11 s) or A = 1,130, B = 0.00075
for left lane (corresponding to tf = 3.19 s and tc = 4.29 s).

LITERATURE REVIEW
Gap Acceptance Based models
Indo-HCM (2017) provides the capacity estimation formulas based
upon the equation provided in the HCM-2010 using critical gaps and
follow up times for different diameter roundabouts which are
presented In the table below:
Diameter, Critical Gap, Follow-up
D (m) Tc (s) time, Tf (s)
20 < D ≤ 30 2.01 1.51
30 < D ≤ 40 1.87 1.40
40 < D ≤ 50 1.65 1.24
50 < D ≤ 70 1.61 1.21

LITERATURE REVIEW
• Acceptance Based models
Gap
Birlon & N., 2006 proposed a formula for capacity of a roundabout
in 1997 based on the idea from Tanner. For a double-lane circle and
double-lane entries, the capacity is given as follows.
C= 3600. .exp [
where C is the capacity (vph),
Qc is the circulating flow in front of entry (vph),
n is the parameter connected to number of entry lanes, which equals
to 1 for single-lane entries and 1.4 for double-lane entries,
Tc is the critical headway (s), and
Tf is the follow-up time (s).

LITERATURE REVIEW
• Research based on gap method to estimate the entry capacity of
the roundabout has been carried out for Jawlakhel roundabout by
Shyaula et al. Shyaula et al. in her thesis work provided
exponential relationship between entry flow and the circulating
flow. The values of the critical gap and follow-up time was
estimated as 1.46 from EOP method and 1.33 from Raff's method
while follow up time was found to be 1.1 sec.
Method for Critical Follow-up
Gap Gap, time, Tf (s)
Tc (s)
EOP 1.46 1.1
Raff 1.33 1.1

LITERATURE REVIEW
• Regression model
Another modeling approach has been regression based. In developing
countries, Al-Masaeid and Faddah (1997) developed a non-linear
regression model for estimating roundabout entry capacity based on
the data collected from 10 roundabouts in Jordan.
Model was a function of entry width, circulating roadway width,

diameter of the Central Island, circulating traffic volume, and
distance between the entry and its near exit.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Where,
Qe = entry capacity, pcu/h;
Qc = circulating traffic flow, pcu/h;

D = central island diameter, m;
S = distance between the entry and near-side exit, m;
EW = entry width, m;
CW = circulating roadway width, m.

LITERATURE REVIEW
•
Regression model
Chik, et al (2004) identified the correlation between the circulating
traffic flow, entry flow, and the entry width by using statistical
analysis on roundabouts in Malaysia. The entry flows for both single-
and multi-lane entries were found to be highly dependent on the
circulating traffic flows. The relationship between the entry and
circulating traffic flow, both for the single- and multi-lane circulation
area, were conceived as linear regression function and are given as
follows:
For single-lane: For multi-lane:

LITERATURE REVIEW
Regression model
Prakash (2010) suggested an empirical equation for estimating entry
capacity of roundabouts based on circulating traffic flow and
geometric parameters (central island diameter, number of entry lanes,
and number of circulating lanes) of the roundabouts in India. It was
found that number of entry lanes and diameter of Central Island
positively affected the entry capacity, while circulating traffic flow
and number of circulating lanes had a negative effect. Linear
regression was performed to have a relationship between these
parameters and the entry capacity, which is given by equation.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Regression model
Where,
Ce = entry capacity, pcu/h,
qc = circulating traffic flow, pcu/h,
D = central island diameter, m,
Ne = number of entry lanes,
Nc = number of circulating lanes.

METHODOLOGY
• Selection of study area
• Conducting Videographic survey to Collect Entry volume and Circulating
Traffic
Survey Volume of a roundabout.
• Field Measurement of Geometrical Data of Roundabouts
Data
collection
• Entry flow entering from a particular approach and the cirulating
and flow in front of a roundabout is extracted from the recorded video
extraction
• Analysis of Collected data

Regression • Linear and Non linear regression modelling using statistical
Modeling software R and excel
and • Estimation of Entry Capacity from the developed model
estimation
of entry • Comparison of the developed model with existing models
capacity

METHODOLOGY
Study Area:
• Chitwan- Chaubiskoti,
• Chitwan- Paras ,
• Itahari,
The analysis provided in this study presently consist of hourly
volume data of different from Chitwan- Chaubiskoti, Chitwan Paras
and Itahari roundabout between 9:00 A.M to 12:00 P.M by the means
of video graphic recording and the data has been extracted by
counting manually from the recording.

METHODOLOGY
Data Collection: The data required for the analysis mainly involves
collection of the geometrical data and the traffic flow data mainly
entry volume and the conflicting circulating volume.
The inventory data has been collected manually.

• Central Island Diameter (D)
• Exit Width (Exit)
• Circulating Width (CW) etc.
• Approach width (AW)
• Entry Width(EW)

METHODOLOGY

METHODOLOGY
Traffic survey
The Volumetric flow of the vehicles entering the rotary has been
collected for every minute during peak period in roundabouts and
also the circulating flow entering the vehicles has been collected
manually from the recording between 9:00 A.M to 12 P.M.
The recorded film was played on the computer screen to extract the
desired information. To make the analysis significant, the vehicles
were divided into four different categories as motorized two-wheeler
(2W), motorized three-wheeler (3W), small car (SC) or standard car,
and heavy vehicle (HV). The volumetric data so obtained in a minute
is then summed for a 15 min period to calculate (V15) which is then
extrapolated to hourly volume for comparison purposes.

METHODOLOGY
• The other (V15) volume data (V15) is then obtained by
summing up the data of 16 min to 30 min time period, in the
similar fashion (V15) data is obtained from summing up the
31 min to 45 min time period.
• The PCU values for converting the heterogeneous traffic into
a homogeneous one are taken from Nepal Urban Road
Standard 2076. For conversion into PCU, the equivalence
factors for two wheelers 0.25 PCU, autos are 1.0 PCU and
buses and Heavy Vehicles (HV) are assessed as 3 PCU

METHODOLOGY
In this study, multivariate regression analysis is conducted to develop
a general entry capacity relation considering entry width, circulating
roadway width, diameter of the Central Island, circulating traffic
volume, entry width, its exit width etc. Geometric variables that had
a weak effect to the model were rejected later from the analysis.

METHODOLOGY
=

Qe= b * * *
Where
Qe= Entry flow from a particular approach
Qc= Circulating flow in front of that approach
D = Central Island Diameter
CW= Circulating Width
AW=Approach Width
Exit=Exit width
EW=Entry Width

ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA : Variation of Entry flow with
respect to Geometric Parameters
Entry flow (Qe) in numbers is plotted in the Y-axis against diameter
(D) in meters is plotted in the X-axis and the corresponding points
are represented by dots and named as Series 1. Exponential and
Linear trend lines are drawn. It can be observed that as the diameter
of the central island increases, it is seen that the entry flow values
increases. 3000
2500
2000
1500 Exponential
()
1000
Linear ()
500
0
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA : Variation of Entry
flow with respect to Geometric Parameters
The variation of entry flow with respect to circulating width (CW) in
meters is shown in the Figure 4. 2. Entry flow is plotted in the Y-axis and
the circulating width is plotted in X-axis. Linear and exponential trend line
are drawn and it can be perceived that as the circulating width increases the
entry flow values decreases which is true as the probability of more number
of the circulating vehicles force intercepting the entering flow from an
approach increases.
3000
2500
2000
1500 Linear ()
1000
Exponential
()
500
0
10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5 13 13.5 14 14.5
The variation of entry flow with respect to approach width is shown in the
Figure. The entry flow is plotted in the Y-axis and the approach width
measured in meters is plotted in the X-axis.
3000
2500
2000
1500
Linear ()
1000
Exponential ()
500
0
4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

• The variation of entry flow with respect to exit width is shown in
the Figure. The entry flow is plotted in the Y-axis and the exit
width measured in meters is plotted in the X-axis. Linear and
exponential trend line are drawn. It was seen that the exit width
increases it is seen that entry flow decreases.
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
5 7 9 11 13 15 17

• The variation of entry flow with respect to entry width is shown in
the Figure 4. 5. The entry flow is plotted in the Y-axis and the
entry width measured in meters is plotted in the X-axis. Linear
and exponential trend line are drawn.
3000
2500
2000
1500 Linear ()
1000
Exponential
()
500
0
5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Analysis of Survey data for Roundabouts outside Valley
Non Linear Regression Analysis

Non-linear regression analysis was performed using 18 hrs. of hourly volume data
of entry flow, circulating flow and other geometrical parameters of each
approaches. From the analysis considering all the variables, it was seen that
circulating width and entry width were non-significant. So, the regression analysis
was performed excluding these variables. The results of the non-linear regression
analysis is shown in the following table.

Non Linear Regression Analysis outside Valley
Non-Linear Regression Statistics for Roundabouts outside Valley.
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.91
R Square 0.82
Adjusted R Square 0.82
Standard Error 0.40
Observations 270
Analysis of Variance for Non-Linear for Roundabouts outside Valley
ANOVA
df F Significance F
Regression 4 304.52 8.73E-98
Residual 265
Total 269

Non Linear Regression Analysis outside Valley
Nonlinear Regression parameters for Roundabouts outside Valley
Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value
Intercept -3.00 0.41 -7.29 3.57E-12
Qc -9.8E-04 0.00 -13.17 8.19E-31
LN(D) 5.10 0.18 27.70 3.17E-80
A.W 0.04 0.01 4.52 9.46E-06
LN(EXIT) -1.17 0.12 -10.12 1.48E-20

The P- value of the selected independent variables is well below confidence limit of 5 %
indicating that the selected coefficients are indeed a good choice for model parameters and
are highly significant to the model. Hence, the non-linear equation is found to be
Qe= 0.0499 * * *

Non Linear Regression Analysis Outside Valley
•Since, the circulating flow conflicts the entry flow, as the circulating flow increase
hindrance to entry flow increases, entry flow decreases hence the negative
relationship is justified. Also, as approach width is more, more width is available
for vehicles to enter, positive sign is also justified. Similarly, the sign of the
diameter D and Exit width is also justified in the equation.

Analysis of Survey data for Roundabout outside Valley
Linear Regression Analysis

• Linear regression analysis was performed using 18 hrs. of hourly volume data
of entry flow, circulating flow and other geometrical parameters of the
approaches. The results of the linear regression analysis is shown in Table
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.95
R Square 0.90
Adjusted R Square 0.90
Standard Error 308.41
Observations 270
The R squared-value obtained is 0.90 and the adjusted R-squared value is 0.90. It
can be said that 90 % of the data can be explained by the model.
Linear Regression Analysis-Outside Valley
Standard
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value
Intercept -2081.63 113.52 -18.34 4.69E-49
Qc -0.59 0.06 -9.95 4.97E-20
D 306.07 9.94 30.80 1.49E-89
A.W 35.75 6.13 5.83 1.62E-08
Exit -58.80 8.41 -6.99 2.22E-11
df F Significance F
Regression 4 605.15 6.50E-132

Residual 265
Total 269

• The analysis of variance is showed in the Table 4. 4 in which F-
value is 91.4 and significance F-value as 1.64E-25 indicating that
the model is good. The F-value and low significance F- value
indicates that probability of the model being wrong is very low i.e.
the probability that all the coefficients in our regression output are
actually zero.
• The linear model parameters and their respective coefficients can
be obtained. The individual P-value of the parameters are
significantly low well within the confidence limit of 5%,
indicating that the selected variables are indeed a good choice of
model parameter. Hence, a linear model can be formulated from
Table 4. 3 is given in equation

•
•It can be seen that since the circulating flow conflicts the entry flow, as the
circulating flow increase hindrance to entry flow increases, entry flow decreases
hence the negative relationship is justified. Also, as approach width is more, more
width is available for vehicles to enter, positive sign is also justified. Similarly, the
sign of the diameter D and Exit width is also justified.

Validation of Non -Linear Model-Outside Valley
z-Test: Two Sample for Means

Qe(model) Qe (actual)
Mean 1408.25 1411.24
Known Variance 1309308.00 1058525.00
Observations 146.00 146.00
Hypothesized Mean
Difference 0.00
z -0.02
P(Z<=z) two-tail 0.98
z Critical two-tail 1.96
Since Z- value is -0.02 which is less than 1.96, the null hypothesis that the difference of
mean is zero is not rejected indicating the datasets are not significantly different within 5
% confidence limits.

Validation of Linear Model-Outside Valley
z-Test: Two Sample for Means

Qe(model) Qe (actual)
Mean 1445.84 1411.24
Known Variance 707901.2 1058525
Observations 146 146
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
z 0.31
P(Z<=z) two-tail 0.75
z Critical two-tail 1.96
From the table it can be seen that Z- value is 0.31 which is less than 1.96, hence the
null hypothesis that the difference of mean is zero is not rejected indicating the datasets
are not significantly different within 5 % confidence limits.

Conclusion and Recommendations
The volumetric count of the entry flows and the circulating flow along with the
geometrical features of the roundabout was used to formulate and empirical
approach to estimate the entry capacity of the roundabouts based on linear and
non-linear regression applicable to heterogeneous traffic conditions of Nepal.
From the analysis following conclusions were drawn:
•The model developed showed that both circulating traffic flow and geometrical
parameters have significant effect on the entry capacity. Hence, models
considering both factors are appropriate for traffic conditions like that of
Nepal.The model developed for the entry capacity was seen to be significantly
affected by the geometrical parameters like circulating traffic, central island
diameter, approach width and exit width.
•Linear model outputs were seen more closely to the field observations than non-
linear models for roundabouts outside valley.

Recommendations
• This study assumes pedestrian flow does not affect the flow in the
roundabouts considerably and the effect of the unwanted parking, stops by the
vehicles for picking up the passengers are very low. Hence a study
incorporating the pedestrian effect is likely to provide a further refined model
for the roundabouts that are affected by heavy pedestrian flow.
• Similarly, the study also assumes the flow in the roundabout is not
interrupted by unwanted bus stops and unauthorized parking. Studying it
effects on the entry flow is also fruitful for refinement of the model. Finally,
in this study the PCU used is based on the Nepal Urban Road Standard 2076
which is constant rather than Dynamic PCU as suggested in the Indo-HCM.
• The developed model hence can be used to predict entry capacity of approach
of four-legged roundabout based on circulating flow and geometrical features
for mix traffic conditions with less hindrance to traffic flow in roundabouts
from external factors like pedestrians, unwanted stops near roundabout etc.

REFERENCES
• Bibliography
• Ahmad, A. & Rastogi, R., 2017. Regression model for entry capacity of a
roundabout under mixed traffic condition – an Indian case study.
Transportation Letters, Volume 9, pp. 243-257.
• Akçelik, R., 1997/07/01. Lane-by-lane modelling of unequal lane use and flares
at roundabouts and signalised intersections: The SIDRA solution. Traffic
Engineering and Control, pp. 388-399.
• Al-Masaeid, H. R. & Faddah, M. Z., 1997. Capacity of Roundabouts in Jordan.
Transportation Research Record, Volume 1572, pp. 76-85.
• Birlon, W. & N., W., 2006. Merkblatt für die anlage von [Guideline for the
Design of Roundabouts].
• CENTRAL ROAD RESEARCH INSTITUTE, 2017. Indian Highway Capacity
Manual,.

REFERENCES
• Chik, A., Puan, O. & Chai, M., n.d. Entry and Circulating Flow Relationship at
a Roundabout. Kejuruteraan Awam, 16((1)), p. 48–60.
• HCM, 2010. Highway Capacity Manual, .
• IRC-65, 1976. Recommended Practices for Traffic Rotaries,.
• Kimber, R., 1980. The Traffic Capacity of Roundabouts. Laboratory Report,
Crowthorne,: Transport and Road Research Laboratory.
• Mahesh, S., Ahmad, A. & Rastogi, R., 2016. An Approach for the Estimation of
Entry Flows on Roundabouts. Transportation Research Procedia, Volume 17,
pp. 52-62.
• Polus, A., Shiftan, Y. & Shmueli-Lazar, S., 2005. Evaluation of the Waiting-
Time effect on Critical Gaps at Roundabouts by a Logit Model. European
Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 1.Volume 5.

REFERENCES
• Polus, A. & Shmueli, S., 1997. Analysis and Evaluation of the Capacity of
Roundabouts. Transportation Research Record, Volume 1572, pp. 99-104.
• Prakash, P. K., 2010. Effect of Geometry on the Traffic Capacity of
Roundabout, 34 .

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TRIBHUVAN UNIVERSITY

6 IOE Graduate Conference

Model development for entry capacity estimation of

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• Both of the above-mentioned models basically provide estimation

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• HCM -2010 based model

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• Where tc denotes critical headway,

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20 < D ≤ 30 2.01 1.51

30 < D ≤ 40 1.87 1.40

40 < D ≤ 50 1.65 1.24

50 < D ≤ 70 1.61 1.21

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Raff 1.33 1.1

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Model was a function of entry width, circulating roadway width,

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Qc = circulating traffic flow, pcu/h;

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For single-lane: For multi-lane:

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• Analysis of Collected data

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The inventory data has been collected manually.

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Non Linear Regression Analysis

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Non-Linear Regression Statistics for Roundabouts outside Valley.

Analysis of Variance for Non-Linear for Roundabouts outside Valley

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Nonlinear Regression parameters for Roundabouts outside Valley

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