Probability

Probability of
of
Independent
Independent Events
Events
Prepared by: Ms. Brenda P. Botor
 Warm-Up
A color wheel is composed of
colors: Blue, Green, Yellow,
Red and Violet. What is the
probability of picking the
following colors:

a.P(yellow)
b.P(red or blue)
c.P(Green and violet)
 Multiplication Rule –
Independent Events……
• When 2 events are independent, the
probability of both occurring is

P( A and B)  P( A)  P( B)
 General Rule……
• “or” means to add

• “and” means to multiply (unless it is in

a contingency table and you can
actually see the intersection)
 Probability of
Independent Events
 Example……
• If a coin is tossed • Answer:
twice, find the
P( H and H )  P( H )  P( H )
probability of
getting 2 heads.
1 1 1
P( H and H )   
2 2 4
 Example……
• A coin is flipped • Answer:
and a die is rolled.
P( H and 4)  P( H )  P(4)
Find the
probability of
getting a head on 1 1 1
the coin and a 4 on
P( H and 4)   
2 6 12
the die.
 Example……
• A card is drawn from • Answer:
a deck and replaced;
then a 2nd card is P(Q and A)  P (Q )  P ( A)
drawn. Find the
probability of getting 4 4 1
P(Q and A)   
a queen and then an 52 52 169
ace.
 Example……
• A box contains 3 red a. Selecting 2 blue balls
balls, 2 blue balls, and
5 white balls. A ball is
b. Selecting a blue ball
selected and its color
and then a white ball
noted. Then it is
replaced. A 2nd ball is
selected and its color c. Selecting a red ball
noted. Find the and then a blue ball
probability of
 Answers……
a. Selecting 2 blue balls 2 2 1
P( B and B)   
10 10 25

b. Selecting a blue ball 2 5 1

P ( B and W )   
and then a white ball 10 10 10

c. Selecting a red ball

3 2 3
P( R and B)   
and then a blue ball 10 10 50
 Example……
• A poll found that 46% • Answer:
of Americans say they
suffer from stress. P( S and S and S )  P( S )  P( S )  P( S )
If 3 people are
selected at random,
P( Stress )  (0.46)  0.097 3
find the probability
that all three will say
they suffer from
stress.
 Example
• The probability that a high school student in a
certain school is in grade 8 is 17%. The probability
that a student rides the school service is 6%. The
probability that a student is enrolled in piano
lesson is 2%. If the student is chosen at random,
find the probability of the following events:

1. The probability is in grade 8 and is enrolled in

piano lessons.
2. The student rides on the school service and
is in grade 8.
3. The students rides on the school service and
is enrolled in piano lessons.
 Dependent Events……
• When the outcome or occurrence of
the first event affects the outcome
or occurrence of the second event in
such a way that the probability is
changed.
 Examples of Dependent
Events……
1. Draw a card from a deck. Do not
replace it and draw another card.
2. Having high grades and getting a
scholarship
3. Parking in a no parking zone and
getting a ticket
 Multiplication Rule –
Dependent Events……
• When 2 events are dependent, the
probability of both occurring is

P( A and B)  P ( A)  P ( BlA)

• The slash reads:

“The probability that B occurs given
that A has already occurred.”
 Example……
• 53% of residents had • Answer:
homeowner’s
insurance. Of these, P ( H and C )  P( H )  P(ClH )
27% also had car
insurance. If a P( H and C )  (.53)(.27)  .1431
resident is selected at
random, find the prob.
That the resident has
both homeowner’s and
car insurance.
 Example……
• 3 cards are drawn from a deck and
NOT replaced. Find the following
probabilities.
a. Getting 3 jacks
b. Getting an ace, king, and queen
c. Getting a club, spade, and heart
d. Getting 3 clubs.
 a. Getting 3 jacks……
4 3 2 1
P( J and J and J )      .000181
52 51 50 5525

b. Getting an ace, king,

queen……
4 4 4 8
P( A and K and Q)      .000483
52 51 50 16575
c. Getting a club, spade, and
heart……
13 13 13 169
P(C and S and H )      .017
52 51 50 10200

d. Getting 3 clubs……
13 12 11 11
P(C and C and C )     or .013
52 51 50 850
 Dependent
Dependent Probability
Probability
Continued……Conditional
Continued……Conditional
Warm Up……How Likely Are
You to Win the Lotto?
• Many states have lotteries. The biggest jackpot,
typically millions of dollars, usually comes from
the Lotto game. In Lotto South, available in
Georgia, Kentucky, and Virginia, six numbers are
randomly sampled without replacement from the
integers 1 to 49. The order of selection is not
important.

• Question: You buy a lottery ticket. What is

the probability that it is a winning ticket,
having the six numbers chosen?
• The probability of • Keep in mind that
winning is the the order does not
probability that matter and that a
the 6 numbers number cannot be
chosen are the six repeated after it
that you have on has been chosen.
your ticket.
• Find the
probability of
winning.
 Answer……
6 5 4 3 2 1
P ( All 6)      
49 48 47 46 45 44

720
P ( All 6)   0.00000007
10,068,347,520

• This is about 1 chance in 14 million!

 Insight……Provided by Wilson
and Crouch 2001, p. 200
• Let’s give this small number some
perspective. The chance of winning the
jackpot in Lotto South (0.00000007)
is……
• less than your chance of being hit by a
meteorite in the next year (0.0000004).
• less than your chance of dying in a
tornado (0.0000002).
• less than your chance of dying by a
lightning strike (0.00000016).
 Back to Conditional
Probability - Remember……

P ( A and B)  P ( A)  P B A

• Algebraically change this so that it

is now in the form……
 “Given”

P ( A and B )
P  B A 
P ( A)
P ( A and B )
P A B  
P( B)
 Example……
• In Rolling Acres Housing Plan, 42% of
the houses have a deck and a garage;
60% have a deck. Find the
probability that a home has a garage,
given that it has a deck.
 Answer……
• Answer:
P( Deck and Garage)  .42 P (G and D)
P G D  
P( D)
P( Deck )  .60
.42
Find P G D  P G D    .70
.6
 Example……
• At an exclusive country club, 83% of
the members play bridge; 75% of the
members drink champagne given that
he or she plays bridge. Find the
probability that members drink
champagne and play bridge.
 Answer……
• Answer:
P(bridge)  .83 P C B  
P(C and B)
P( B)
P champ bridge   .75 P ( B and C )
.75 
.83
Find P (champ and bridge)

P(C and B)  (.75)(.83)  .62

 Example……
• A recent survey
asked 100 people if
they thought women
in the armed forces Yes No Total
should be permitted
to participate in Male 32 18 50
combat. The results
are shown in the Female 8 42 50
table.
Total 40 60 100
 a. Find the probability that they
answered yes, given that they
were female.
Answer:
P (Y and F )
P Y F  
P( F )
Yes No Total

Male 32 18 50 8
8 4
P Y F   100   or.16
50 50 25
100
Female 8 42 50

Total 40 60 100
 b. Find the probability that they
were male, given that they
answered no.
• Answer:
P ( M and No)
P  M No  
Yes No Total P ( No)
Male 32 18 50

Female 8 42 50

Total 40 60 100

18
18 3
P M No   100   or.3
60 60 10
100
 Assignment
A. Write I if the events is independent.
Otherwise, write D.

1. Rolling a die and tossing a coin.

2. Getting two cards from a standard deck
without replacement.
3. Attending a seminar and raining today.
4. Tossing a coin twice.
5. Rolling a fair die twice.