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    Cyber Security: The Evolving Threat

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    Ganesh Raj
    The document discusses the evolving threat of cyber security. It outlines current trends in cyber attacks including common industries and motives targeted, as well as recent major data breaches. Predictive analytics techniques like machine learning and decision trees are presented as ways to model and predict cyber security risks. However, challenges remain like the constantly changing nature of threats and growing attacker sophistication.

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    Cyber Security: The Evolving Threat

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    Ganesh Raj
    17 views20 pages
    The document discusses the evolving threat of cyber security. It outlines current trends in cyber attacks including common industries and motives targeted, as well as recent major data breaches. Predictive analytics techniques like machine learning and decision trees are presented as ways to model and predict cyber security risks. However, challenges remain like the constantly changing nature of threats and growing attacker sophistication.

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    CyberInsurance-SarahSchwarzentraub

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    The document discusses the evolving threat of cyber security. It outlines current trends in cyber attacks including common industries and motives targeted, as well as recent major data breaches. Predictive analytics techniques like machine learning and decision trees are presented as ways to model and predict cyber security risks. However, challenges remain like the constantly changing nature of threats and growing attacker sophistication.

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    17 views20 pages

    Cyber Security: The Evolving Threat

    Uploaded by

    Ganesh Raj
    The document discusses the evolving threat of cyber security. It outlines current trends in cyber attacks including common industries and motives targeted, as well as recent major data breaches. Predictive analytics techniques like machine learning and decision trees are presented as ways to model and predict cyber security risks. However, challenges remain like the constantly changing nature of threats and growing attacker sophistication.

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    of 20

    Cyber Security

    The Evolving Threat

    Amanda Conklin
    Linda Der Schwartz
    Sarah Schwarzentraub
    March 28, 2019
    Outline
    • Introduction of Cyber Risk and Security
    • Current Trends
    • Modeling Techniques Used in Cyber Security
    • Example using Decision Trees
    • Growing Challenges of Cyber Security

    2
    Overview of Cyber Risk and Security
    • Importance of Strong Cyber Security Practices in Today’s
    World
    • What is a Cyber Insurance Policy?
    • Government’s Involvement with Cyber Security
    • Insurer’s Response
    • Improvement of Cyber Security Standards

    3
    Evolution of Cyber Attacks

    1988
    • First Known Cyberattack: The Morris Worm

    2000
    • Email Phishing

    2007
    • Denial-of-Service Attacks

    2010
    • Ransomware

    2013
    • 6.5 Million Malware Samples Created

    2018
    • Cybersecurity is Estimated to Reach $96.3B

    4
    Recent Data Breaches
    • Marriott
    • Equifax
    • JPMorgan Chase
    • Target
    • eBay
    • Yahoo

    5
    Current Trends: Industry

    Industry

    Agriculture
    Mining
    Construction
    Management
    Real Estate
    Entertainment
    Trade
    Unknown
    Administrative
    Professional
    Transportation
    Accomodation
    Manufacturing
    Retail
    Educational
    Finance
    Other Services
    Utilities
    Information
    Healthcare
    Public
    0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00%

    6
    Current Trends: Action

    Action

    Malware

    Social

    Hacking

    Error

    Physical

    Misuse

    0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00%

    7
    Current Trends: External Motives

    Motive of External Attacks

    NA

    Convenience

    Fear

    Secondary

    Other

    Grudge

    Espionage

    Fun

    Unknown

    Ideology

    Financial

    0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00%

    8
    Current Trends: Internal Motives

    Motive of Internal Attacks

    Fear

    Grudge

    Espionage

    Convenience

    Fun

    Other

    Ideology

    Financial

    NA

    Unknown

    0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%

    9
    Current Trends – Types of Cyber Attacks
    Types of Cyber Attacks

    Attrition, External/Removable Media, Physical Cause Mutliple Attack Vectors Web

    Loss or Theft of Equipmnet Email/Phishing Other

    Improper Usage

    Data from GAO Analysis of United States Computer


    Emergency Readiness Team and Office of
    Management and Budget Data for Fiscal Year 2017

    10
    Predictive Analytics
    • What is Predictive Analytics?
    • How is it Applicable to Cyber Insurance?
    • Data Considerations
    • Importance of Computing Power
    • Future of Predictive Analytic Techniques for Cyber Security
    Risks

    11
    Artificial Intelligence
    The Future of A.I.
    Forecasted Cumulative Global Artifical Intelligence Revenue 2016-2025 by U.S. Dollars (in Millions)

    Prevention against cybersecurity threats

    Object detection and classification - avoidance, navigation

    Content distribution of social media

    Automated geophysical feature detection

    Text query of images

    Object identification, detection, classification, tracking

    Predictive maintenance

    Efficient, scalable processing of patient data

    Algorithmic trading strategy performance improvement

    Static image recognition, classification, and tagging

    Data from geospatial images - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
    Source: Tractica
    @StatistaCharts

    12
    Machine Learning
    Machine
    Learning

    Instance
    Regression based

    Regularization Decision Trees

    Dimensionality
    Bayesian
    Reduction

    Association
    Clustering
    Rule Learning

    Artificial
    Neural Deep Learning
    Network

    13
    Decision Tree Example: Impact of Loss
    Data
    Type

    Victim > $10M


    Country

    > $10M
    Integrity

    External <= $10M


    Relationship

    <= $10M Pattern

    <= $10M > $10M

    14
    Decision Tree Example: Prediction
    predict(impact_loss, newdata = test)

    <= $10 Mil > $10 Mil


    1 0.9797297 0.02027027
    3 0.9797297 0.02027027
    4 0.3333333 0.66666667
    10 0.3333333 0.66666667
    15 0.9797297 0.02027027
    17 0.9797297 0.02027027
    19 0.9797297 0.02027027
    25 0.9797297 0.02027027
    27 0.9797297 0.02027027
    28 0.9797297 0.02027027
    33 0.4444444 0.55555556
    44 0.9797297 0.02027027
    45 0.9797297 0.02027027
    48 0.9797297 0.02027027
    49 0.3333333 0.66666667

    15
    Decision Tree Example: Prediction
    Confusion Matrix – Comparison summary of predicted results
    versus observed results in a classification model.

    Predicted
    n = 99 <= $10 Mil > $10 Mil

    Actual
    <= $10 Mil 79 8

    > $10 Mil 9 3

    Accuracy – fraction of instances that were correctly classified.


    = (79 + 3) / 99
    = 0.828 or 82.8%

    16
    Decision Tree Example: Data Imbalance in R
    • Oversample or Undersample the Data
    • Changing Prior Probabilities
    • Including a Loss Matrix

    17
    Continuing Challenges of Cybersecurity
    • Constantly Evolving Nature of Cyber Security Industry
    • Growth of Online Assets
    • Growing Sophistication of Hackers
    • Proactive vs. Retroactive

    18
    Questions?

    19
    Thank You for Your Attention

    Amanda Conklin
    (309) 807 2339
    aconklin@pinnacleactuaries.com

    Linda Der Schwartz


    (678) 894 7252
    lder@pinnacleactuaries.com

    Sarah Schwarzentraub
    saachan89@gmail.com

    Commitment Beyond Numbers 20

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