HOW DOES LIGHT RAIL TRANSIT (LRT) IMPACT

GENTRIFICATION? EVIDENCE FROM FOURTEEN US URBANIZED

Dwayne MarshallAREAS
Baker and Prof. Bumsoo Lee
UP 460 | FALL 2021
Presentation by : Sutapa Banerjee
INCREASING GREEN SPACE PER CAPITA INVESTING IN PUBLIC TRANSIT

ECO-GENTRIFICATION/
GREEN GENTRIFICATION
? TRANSIT INDUCED GENTRIFICATION
 CATALYSTS

• CHANGE IN
ACCESSIBILITY TO
TRANSIT
TRANSIT INDUCED
• OR INVESTMENT IN GENTRIFICATION
TRANSPORTATION
REINFORCING FEEDBACK LOOPS SPURRED BY THE INTRO OF LRT
 • URBAN PLANNERS
• POLICY MAKERS
• POLITICIANS

ECONOMIC GAIN VS SOCIAL EQUITY

• DEVELOPERS • COMMUNITY ORGs
• REAL ESTATE AGENTS • SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS
• INVESTORS • LOW INCOME RESIDENTS
• HIGH INCOME RESIDENTS • HOMELESS RESIDENTS
BENEFITS WEALTHY
MINORITY BUT
ADVERSELY AFFECTS
LOW-INCOME
MAJORITY
KEYWORDS:

gentrification, neighborhood change, light rail transit

(LRT), transit-oriented development (TOD)

IMPORTANT FACTS ABOUT THE STRUCTURE OF

RESEARCH PAPER

• Longitudinal study across 14 US Urbanized Areas (UA’s)

• A longitudinal study examines changes over time,
provides developmental analysis

• Highlights the importance of local and regional

planning efforts

• Basis of study: Socioeconomic change over Property

Values

• Method of study adopted: Spatial Regression Analysis

LRT STATION OPENINGS BETWEEN

1980-1990
30 YEAR ANALYSIS
1980 - 2010
LRT STATION OPENINGS BETWEEN

1990-2000
20 YEAR ANALYSIS
1990 - 2010
 AIM OF STUDY: HOW STATION AREA NEIGHBORHOODS CHANGE IN THE COURSE OF THEIR LIFETIMES

BASE FOR MEASURING

NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE SAR
Proxy variables:
OVER
•
•
RACE
GENDER OLS
• Spatial study
SOCIOECONOMIC
CHANGE • Using OLS without correcting the
spatial autocorrelation would
OVER result in biased and inefficient
PROPERTY VALUES estimates

• SAR tests and accounts for the

possibility that the dependent
variable in a given census tract is
• Gentrification often correlated to values of the same
manifests itself as a variable in adjacent census tracts
racial transition
NCI= COMPOSITE VARIABLE =
SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS AND HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS

Neighborhood upgrade
NCI + displacement
DEPENDENT VARIABLES :
MEASURES NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE

• MEASURES EXTENT OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE

I. NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE INDEX (NCI) ASSOCIATED WITH GENTRIFICATION
II. RACE
III. EDUCATION • DISPLACEMENT IS DIFFICULT TO ACCOUNT FOR,
IV. INCOME THEREFORE RACE AND SEX BECOME PROXY INDICATORS
V. POVERTY • INCREASE IN WHITE POPULATION IS AN INDICATOR OF
POSSIBLE GENTRIFICATION

• MEASURES EXTENT OF NEIGHBORHOOD CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH

VI. POPULATION DENSITY TRANSIT ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT BENEFITS
VII. PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION USE
VIII.NON-PRIVATELY OWNED VEHICLES • ANALYZING IN WHICH URBAN AREAS, TOD EFFECTS ARE SIGNIFICANT
INDEPENDENT VARIABLES :
 • URBAN AREA DUMMY
• LRT STATION BUFFER • CORE CITY
• URBAN AREA LRT’s • DISTANCE TO CBD

EUCLIDEAN TRAVEL TIME DISTANCE ROAD DISTANCE

BUFFER BUFFER BUFFER

METHOD

• Create a Euclidean buffer radius of a ½ mile around every light rail

station
• Create census tract centroids
• Determine the distance from each census tract centroid to its given
CBD

½ MILE BUFFER: Standard for measuring LRT station impact, best at Assumption?
predicting ridership as a function of station area population Presence in core/ CC, distance to CBD influences
neighborhood upgradation or decline
 SPATIAL AUTOREGRESSIVE LAG MODEL EQUATION

Explanatory
Spatial auto regression variables
Dependent parameter
variable

Error term
 
𝒚= 𝜶 + 𝒑𝑾𝒚+ 𝜷 𝑿 + 𝜺

Constant
Weighting
matrix
  𝒚= 𝜶 + 𝒑𝑾𝒚+ 𝜷 𝑿 + 𝜺
  𝒚= 𝜶 + 𝒑𝑾𝒚+ 𝜷 𝑿 + 𝜺
 4 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS AFTER ANALYSIS OF
STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CO-EFFICIENTS

1 GENTRIFICATION TOD

2 GENTRIFICATION TOD BEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME

3 GENTRIFICATION TOD WORST POSSIBLE OUTCOME

4 GENTRIFICATION TOD OVERALL NEIGHBORHOOD DECLINE

 FINDINGS:

• Expectation: Presence of LRT would spur TOD and eventually gentrification

 DEBATE TYING DISPLACEMENT TO RAIL TRANSIT INVESTMENTS

REASONS FOR INCONSISTENT RESULTS

• Indicators of displacement may not be uniform across all cities

• Different neighborhood processes and structures. Growing regional divergence, inequality, heterogeneity across cities

• Displacement is difficult to track, usually measured through related/ proxy variables like educational attainment, rental
prices, and other demographic information.

• Correlation vs Causation: Gentrification and displacement studies fail to distinguish if these changes are strictly due to the
rail station or if larger economic trends were at play
PERSONALLY WITNESSED EXAMPLE OF
TRANSIT INDUCED GENTRIFICATION :
NAVI MUMBAI
FINANCIAL CAPITAL OF INDIA =
POPULATION GROWTH AND
MIGRATION INFLUX
=
SKYROCKETING REAL ESTATE
PRICES
=
NEED FOR AFFORDABLE
RESIDENTIAL AREAS
=
LAND – A SCARCE
RESOURCE =
SATELLITE CITY OR DORMITORY TOWN
(NAVI MUMBAI)
=
NODAL DEVELOPMENT -
POLYCENTRIC =
DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSIT LINES =
TRANSIT INDUCED
GENTRIFICATION =
DISPLACEMENT =
 52 LAKH INR
( 70,000 USD )

5-7 YEARS
2.2 CR INR
( 300,000 USD )

• INTRODUCTION OF RAILWAY LINE

• PROPOSED INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
• SHIPYARD/ PORT IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY
• AMPLE LAND FOR EXPANSION
 WALKABILITY AUDIT
FY 21-22
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS URBANA-CHAMPAIGN
 DATABASE CREATION
WALKABILITY AUDIT

SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE MICROSCALE ANALYSIS OF SUB-DIVISIONS

(DEFICIENCY REPORTING)
 MICROSCALE ANALYSIS OF SUB-DIVISIONS (DEFICIENCY REPORTING)

SAFETY CONNECTIVITY
1 Poorly lit sidewalk 1 Poor connection to other
networks
ACCESSIBILITY WALK APPEAL 2 Discontinuity of sidewalk
2 No buffers present
OTHER
3 Discontinuous sidewalk 3

5 6 2 4 Presence of obstruction 4

3 5 Poorly maintained sidewalk 5

7 1
8 1
3 1 Absence of sloped curb cuts 1 Insufficient shade

3 2 Insufficient width 2 Insufficient landscape

3 Absence of signage 3
9
5 2 4 Absence of crosswalk markings4
6 7
5 Discontinuity of sidewalk 5
1
THANK YOU.