Professional Documents
Culture Documents
The Carbon Cycle - Policy Nexus: Robert T. Watson
The Carbon Cycle - Policy Nexus: Robert T. Watson
Robert T. Watson
IPCC, Chair
COP-6bis
Bonn, Germany
July 17th
Global Carbon Cycle
Key Messages
Human activities (combustion of fossil fuels and land-use changes)
have and are continuing to perturb the carbon cycle -- increasing
the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide
The terrestrial biosphere has historically been a source of carbon
to the atmosphere - it is currently a net sink
The current terrestrial carbon sink is caused by land management
practices, higher carbon dioxide, nitrogen deposition and possibly
recent changes in climate
This uptake by the terrestrial biosphere will not continue
indefinitely. The question is when will this slow down, stop or
even become a source?
LULUCF activities will result in the sequestration of carbon in three
main pools -- above and below ground biomass and soils for
decades to centuries
Global Carbon Cycle
Key Messages
some of the LULUCF sequestered carbon could be released back
to the atmosphere due to changes in climate, but unlikely for
many decades -- even then there would still be more carbon in the
three pools than without the LULUCF activities
there may be a few instances, e.g., Boreal forests at high
latitudes, when the benefits of carbon sequestration may be
partially or fully offset by changes in albedo
slowing deforestation has multiple environmental and social
benefits
monitoring systems can be put in place to monitor all three pools
of carbon
LULUCF activities buy time to transform energy systems to lower
GHG emitting systems, but will allow more fossil carbon to
transferred to the more labile biological pools, hence avoiding a
tonne of carbon emissions is better than creating a tonne of sinks
Indicators of the Human Influence
on the Atmosphere during the Industrial Era
Carbon emissions and uptakes since 1800
(Gt C)
140
Land use
115
change Oceans
110
265 Terrestrial
Fossil
emissions 180
Atmosphere
The Global Carbon Cycle - 1990s
Units Gt C and Gt C y-1
Atmosphere
…are leading to a 3.2
build up of CO2 63 750
in the atmosphere. 6.3 Fossil Deposits
About 16,000
1.6
60
500 Plants
Fossil emissions ...
Soil
91.7 90
2000
Oceans
The KP seeks to reduce net
39,000
carbon emissions by about
0.3 Gt C below 1990 levels
from industrial countries
Current Role of the Terrestrial Biosphere
During the 1990s the net global uptake of carbon by the
terrestrial biosphere was about 1.4 Gt C per year ---
assuming emissions from tropical deforestation in the 1990s
were about 1.6 Gt C per year (the same as in the 1980s)
--then the gross uptake of carbon by the terrestrial biosphere
was about 3 Gt C per year
Inverse modeling suggests that about 50% of the global
uptake is occurring in the tropics and the other 50% in the
mid- and high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere
The primary cause of the current uptake (about 1.5 Gt C per
year) in N. America, Europe and Asia is, as said earlier,
thought to be re-growth due to management practices, with
carbon dioxide, nitrogen fertilization and climate change
contributing, but to smaller extent
Global Net Ecosystem Productivity
4
Sink
Source
–2
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Forest Management
Broad definition
Cropland Management
Grazing land Management
USA definition
Full carbon accounting
All stocks across all carbon pools
If applied to all land in all countries then the
accounting would produce the “Net terrestrial uptake”
of about 1.4 GtC y-1 (IPCC TAR) without any additional
effort to reduce emissions or increase sinks
Assuming emissions from tropical deforestation are
1.6 GtC y-1, this suggests a global uptake of about 3
GtC y-1
Assuming 50% of the uptake is at mid- and high latitudes, this
would allow Annex I Parties to claim an annual credit of between
about 1.5 GtC y-1 due to the residual uptake because of improved
management practices pre-1990, carbon dioxide and nitrogen
fertilization effect and climate change. Current text would limit this
credit by discounting by 85%.
Maximum USA & Japan purchases
The current text
60
50
40 discounts credits for
Mt C / yr
30
20 forest management
10 under Article 3.4 by
0
70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 85%, and
Forest mgmt discount (Pronk = 85%)
30
20 Accounts for pre-1990
10 activities, does not separate
0 direct from indirect human
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
activities, and accepts
Cap on the use of sinks (Pronk 50%)
broad definitions
Annual C sequestration potential (GtC/y)
improvement of management within cover type -
new activities since 1990
Agroforestry
Cropland management
Forest management
Wetland restoration
Cropland to grassland