Fall 2021

The American Presidency

September 22, 2021

Lecture #3
Ronald Christie

1
The American Presidency
So Where Are We on
September 22, 2021?
 Congress must address multiple fiscal
deadlines this year

Debt ceiling FY2022 budget

 Suspended for two years by the Bipartisan  The Biden administration released a
Budget Act of 2019 discretionary spending request on April 9 and
 The suspension expired at the end of July a full budget on May 28
2021  The Senate passed a $3.5 trillion budget
resolution on August 11; the House passed
the budget resolution on August 24

FY22 appropriations Other programs

 Government funding runs out September 30,  Other key programs are set to expire at the
2021 end of FY21, including:
 Congress must pass 12 funding bills (or  Surface Transportation Authorization
combined into mini or omnibus)  National Flood Insurance Program
Authorization
 Authorization of TANF

S O U R C E Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, House Committee on the Budget

P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 9/20/21
The Treasury is expected to run out of money
in Oct. or Nov. if the debt ceiling is not raised
OVERVIEW OF TH E DEBT CEILING
 First established in 1917, the debt ceiling, or debt limit, is the maximum amount of money that the federal government can borrow to meet
its existing legal obligations, including Social Security, military salaries, and interest on the national debt
 The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 suspended the ceiling until July 31 st, 2021; when it was passed, the debt limit was $22.0 trillion
 On August 1st, 2021, the limit was set at roughly $28.5 trillion
 The debt limit has thus been reset to its previous ceiling + the amount it borrowed since the ceiling was suspended, which was $6.5 trillion as
of June 30, 2021
 Once the government hits the debt ceiling and exhausts all other options, it can no longer borrow; since the US gov runs an annual deficit, it
will run out of money soon after it hits the limit and temporarily default on obligations
 According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Treasury will run out of money in late fall, at which point the US could default

CO N G R ES S & TH E T R EAS U RY RAISING THE DEBT LIMIT

 Only Congress has the power to amend the debt ceiling either by
raising, extending, or redefining it; it can do so through
reconciliation
 Since 1960, Congress has amended the debt limit in some form
78 times
 The Treasury can take “extraordinary measures” to avoid hitting
the debt ceiling
 These actions include prematurely redeeming Treasury bonds
held in federal retirement savings accounts, pausing
contributions to government pension funds, and ceasing state
and local government series securities
 On August 2, 2021, Treasury Secretary Yellen paused
investments in some government employee retirement and
health benefits funds
 Democrats support raising the debt ceiling but Senate
Republicans have signaled they will refuse any hikes to the
ceiling unless it is paired with spending cuts
 Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) recently said
that the GOP won’t support a debt ceiling hike, telling Democrats
that they can raise the ceiling themselves through budget
reconciliation; however, Democrats oppose partisan efforts to
raise the debt ceiling, citing bipartisan ceiling raises under the
Trump administration
 Secretary Yellen wrote a letter to congressional leaders to act on
the debt limit, warning that failure to do so “would cause
irreparable harm to the U.S. economy and the livelihoods of all
Americans”
 House Democrats voted on Sept. 21 to raise the debt ceiling and
extend government funding, but the measure is unlikely to pass
the Senate

S O U R C E Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Treasury Department, Congressional Budget Office., WSJ, Politico
Z A C W E I S Z 9/22/21
 Appropriations process
Once a program is authorized, it can be funded through an appropriations bill

February March – April May – September

S S
Senate passes Senate passes 12
budget resolution appropriations bills

President releases Congress passes Appropriations Congress combines Any unfinished

budget request combined budget subcommittees draft and passes 12 bills appropriations bills
resolution bills combined into omnibus bill

H H
House passes House passes 12
budget resolution appropriations bills

Collaborative process Determines overall level of Based on the overall limits defined in the budget Appropriations bill is
between federal discretionary funding for the resolution, each subcommittee establishes the sent to White House;
agencies and the OMB next fiscal year specific funding level for the programs under its president passes or
jurisdiction
vetoes

S O U R C E Congressional Research Service

P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 5/30/19 6
 Topline provisions in the Senate Democrats’
$3.5 trillion budget resolution for FY2022
Families
Includes programs funded in the HELP and Finance Committees
• Establishes universal pre-K for 3- and 4-year-olds and a new
childcare benefit for working families
• Makes community college tuition-free for two years
• Extends a tax cut for families with children (CTC/EITC/CDCTC)
• Increases the Pell Grant award
• Invests in HBCUs, MSIs, HSIs, TCUs, and ANNHIs
• Creates a Federal Paid Family and Medical Leave benefit
Infrastructure & jobs
Invests in essential infrastructure projects and job programs
• Increases investments in public housing, green and sustainable
housing, housing production and affordability
• Establishes the first Civilian Climate Corps
• Invests in workforce development and job training programs to
connect workers to good-paying jobs
• Provides green cards to millions of immigrant workers and families
• Funds smart technology for safe and efficient borders for trade, travel,
and migration
• Largest one-time investment in Native American infrastructure
projects
• Rehabilitates aging Veterans Administration buildings and hospitals
• New economic development investments to revitalize communities
and Invests in research and development and strengthens US
manufacturing supply chains
• Expands access to capital and markets for small businesses
S O U R C E Axios, Senate.gov.
P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 8/9/21
Healthcare
Builds on programs to provide universal health care to all Americans
• Adds a Dental, Vision, and Hearing Benefit to the Medicare
program
• Extends the recent expansion of the Affordable Care Act in
the American Rescue Plan
• Invests in home and community-based services to help
seniors, persons with disabilities, and home care workers
• Creates a federal health program for Americans in the
“Medicaid gap”
• Reduces prescription drug costs for patients and saves
taxpayers hundreds of billions
Climate
Includes programs to meet Biden’s electricity and carbon reduction
requirements
• Creates a Clean Electricity Payment Program
• Provides clean energy, manufacturing, and transportation tax
incentives and grants
• Imposes new polluter fees (methane and carbon imports)
• Invests in climate smart agriculture and forest management
investments for farmers and rural communities
• Creates coastal and ocean resiliency programs
• Makes drought, wildfire, and Interior Department investments
• Provides new consumer rebates for home electrification and
weatherization
• Provides environmental justice and climate resilience
• Electrifies the federal vehicle fleet and buildings
 Breakdown of Democrats’ $3.5 trillion budget
resolution to the American Jobs Plan (1/2)
Senate Democrats released a $3.5 trillion budget resolution proposal for “human
infrastructure” as a part of a “go-it-alone plan” separate from the $1.2 trillion bill focusing on
physical infrastructure
OVERVIEW OF SENATE DEMOCRATS’ RESOLUTION
Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY) released reconciliation
instructions for Senate committees to draft the details of the
spending bill. The resolution currently allocates the following
Overview of the funds to each committee:
▪ Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions: $726 billion
budget resolution ▪ Banking: $332 billion
▪ Energy: $198 billion
▪ Agriculture: $135 billion
▪ Judiciary: $107 billion
▪ Commerce: $83 billion
▪ Environment and Public Works: $67 billion
▪ Homeland Security: $37 billion
▪ Small Business: $25 billion
▪ Indian Affairs: $20.5 billion
▪ Veterans Affairs: $18 billion
▪ Finance: ~$1 billion

Current Within the resolution, committees are expected to submit their draft
arguments and legislation by September 15

forecast for the Concerns exist about the resolution’s inability to raise the debt ceiling,
bills but Democrats aim to pay for the plan through corporate and individual
tax reform and increased IRS enforcement of existing rates. Senators
Warren (D-MA) and King (I-ME) are also prepared to introduce a 7% tax
on corporate profits over $100 million, expecting to raise $700 billion
S O U R C E CNBC, Axios.
from 1,300 companies
P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 8/11/21
 Breakdown of Democrats’ $3.5 trillion budget
resolution to the American Jobs Plan (2/2)
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) pledged to have an infrastructure bill approved by
the end of the month along with the reconciliation bill

RECONCILIATION CONSTRAINTS

▪ Senate rules blocked Democrats’ plans to put 8 million undocumented

immigrants on a path to citizenship, sending Democrats back to the drawing
Overview of the board to include immigration policies in the spending bill

budget resolution ▪ On September 20, Pelosi told Democratic colleagues to prepare for adjustments to
the reconciliation bill to accommodate Senate constraints for fast tracking the
budget process

NEXT STEPS

▪ Senate Democrats submitted a budget resolution with a cap of $3.5 trillion after
Pelosi stated a bill will not be proposed to the House with a greater topline
number.

▪ Adjustments to the spending measures will be made according to the Byrd rule
and budget reconciliation process, requiring the Senate to pass the bill with a
Current simple majority and constraints for any extraneous provisions
arguments and ▪ To prevent future setbacks, Pelosi announced that legislation proposed by House
forecast for the Committees will be reviewed by both the House and Senate Budget Committees

bills ▪ Progressive Democrats are looking to take down the bipartisan infrastructure bill
if the budget resolution does not pass prior to votes on the bill. Pelosi committed
to a deadline of September 27 for the House to take up both bills.

S O U R C E CNBC, CBS News

P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 9/22/21
 Calendar of FY22 budget and appropriations actions

■ Budget action ■ Appropriations action ■ Deadline FY22 BUDGET AND APPROPRIATIONS ACTIONS

■ April 9: Biden releases FY22 discretionary spending

April May request
1 2 3 1
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
■ May 28: Biden releases full FY22 budget request
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ■ July 28: House passes its first two FY22 appropriations
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 bills, funding State-Foreign Operations and Legislative
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Branch
30 31
■ July 29: House passes a seven-bill FY22 appropriations
July August package, funding Agriculture, Energy & Water, Financial
1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Services, Interior, MCVA, Labor/HHS/Ed, and
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Transportation/HUD
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 ■ July 31: Debt ceiling expires
25 26 27 28 29 30 31 29 30 31
■ August 11: Senate Democrats pass a $3.5 trillion budget
resolution bill

September ■ August 24: House Democrats pass the $3.5 trillion

1 2 3 4
budget resolution bill
5 6 7 8 10 11
9
■ Sept. 21: House passes H.R. 5305, raising the debt limit
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
and extending government funding through Dec. 3
26 27 28 29 30 ■ Sept. 30: End of FY21

S O U R C E WhiteHouse.gov, House Appropriations Committee.

P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 9/22/21
Democrats will vote on a continuing
resolution the week of Sept. 20
OVERVIEW OF CONTINUING RESOLUTIONS
• Each year, Congress must approve a federal budget to fund the government for the next 12 months; if a new budget is not passed by
October 1 (the beginning of the fiscal year), then the government will face a shut down
• Continuing appropriations acts, or continuing resolutions (CRs), are enacted to provide temporary funding for a specific period of
time for certain federal programs and activities in the event that regular appropriations acts are not passed by October 1
• CRs act as a stop-gap to prevent government shutdowns and cannot be used to fund new activities
• Instead of allocating a specific amount of funds towards a program, CRs operate using a funding rate
• The Biden administration recently urged Congress to pass a CR before Sept. 30; H.R. 5305 would extend funding until Dec. 3 and
includes $28.6 billion in disaster relief funding and $6.3 billion for the relocation of Afghan refugees
• The CR vote was tied to a vote to raise the debt ceiling which passed the House along party lines on Sept. 21 but is expected to be
filibustered in the Senate; Senate Republicans have proposed a separate fiscal rescue package that would extend government funding
without raising the debt ceiling

FREQUENCY OF CONTINUING RESOLUTIONS, FY1998-FY2020

25
21
20

15

10 8 8 8
7
6 6
5 5 5 5
5 4 4 4
3 3 3 3 3
2 2 2 2

0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

S O U R C E Congressional Research Service, White House, Politico, WSJ

P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 9/22/21
 Congress has enacted one or more CRs in
all but three of the last 44 fiscal years
5 39 days 5 months 15
Average number of CRs Average duration of Average total duration
Number of full-year CRs
enacted per year, each CR, FY1998- of CR funding per year,
enacted since FY1977
FY1998-FY2020 FY2020 FY1998-FY2020

D U R AT I O N O F C O N T I N U I N G R E S O L U T I O N S F Y 1 9 9 8 - F Y 2 0 2 0 , I N D AY S
400
365 365 365
350

300

250
216
200
173
162 156
150 143 138
123
102 110
100 92 92 84
82 79 83 81
63 69
57
50
21
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

S O U R C E Congressional Research Service

P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 9/19/21
 Breakdown of Democrats’ $3.5 trillion budget
resolution to the American Jobs Plan (1/2)
Senate Democrats released a $3.5 trillion budget resolution proposal for “human
infrastructure” as a part of a “go-it-alone plan” separate from the $1.2 trillion bill focusing on
physical infrastructure
OVERVIEW OF SENATE DEMOCRATS’ RESOLUTION
Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY) released reconciliation
instructions for Senate committees to draft the details of the
spending bill. The resolution currently allocates the following
Overview of the funds to each committee:
▪ Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions: $726 billion
budget resolution ▪ Banking: $332 billion
▪ Energy: $198 billion
▪ Agriculture: $135 billion
▪ Judiciary: $107 billion
▪ Commerce: $83 billion
▪ Environment and Public Works: $67 billion
▪ Homeland Security: $37 billion
▪ Small Business: $25 billion
▪ Indian Affairs: $20.5 billion
▪ Veterans Affairs: $18 billion
▪ Finance: ~$1 billion

Current Within the resolution, committees are expected to submit their draft
arguments and legislation by September 15

forecast for the Concerns exist about the resolution’s inability to raise the debt ceiling,
bills but Democrats aim to pay for the plan through corporate and individual
tax reform and increased IRS enforcement of existing rates. Senators
Warren (D-MA) and King (I-ME) are also prepared to introduce a 7% tax
on corporate profits over $100 million, expecting to raise $700 billion
S O U R C E CNBC, Axios.
from 1,300 companies
P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 8/11/21
 Breakdown of Democrats’ $3.5 trillion budget
resolution to the American Jobs Plan (2/2)
The budget resolution passed the House on August 24; Committees will draft legislation
for the final spending bill by a target date of September 15

SPENDING ARGUMENTS
▪ Centrist Democrats Krysten Sinema (D-AZ) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) have
voiced their concerns on the $3.5 trillion budget, while progressives stated they
will oppose attempts at cutting the proposal
Overview of the
▪ In response to Manchin, Bernie Sanders stated “No infrastructure bill without the
budget resolution $3.5tn reconciliation bill.”

▪ On September 13, the Ways and Means Committee unveiled a plan calling for top
corporate and individual tax rates of 26.5% and 39.6%, in addition to a 3%
surcharge on individual income above $5 million and capital gains taxes of 25% to
pay for the $3.5 trillion spending bill

NEXT STEPS
▪ The House approved the $3.5 trillion budget resolution along party lines on
August 24 in a 220-212 vote after ten Democrats threatened to derail the bill
unless the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill advanced.
Current ▪ Committees set a soft deadline of September 15 to write their sections of the bill
arguments and before it heads off to the Budget Committee for approval; the Senate has missed
this deadline
forecast for the
▪ The measure also includes a nonbinding commitment for a vote on the bipartisan
bills infrastructure bill by September 27

▪ House leaders face pressure to write and complete the reconciliation plan before
the infrastructure bill is approved. House Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) pledged to have
S O U R C E CNBC, Axios, Roll Call., The Gaurdian this done within a month
P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 9/15/21
 326 representatives submitted Community Project Funding
requests for FY2022

• Community Project Funding requests for FY2022 totaled $7,063,058,487

• 221 Democrats and 105 Republicans submitted 2,978 requests
• Twice as many Democrats submitted Community Project Funding requests compared to Republicans
but requested on average $18,102,047.80 less than Republicans per representative

Number of requests Requested funding amount

Republicans
Republicans $3,563,433,011
844 requests

Democrats Democrats
2,134 requests $3,499,625,487

Excludes non-voting representatives. Graphs reflect the data submitted by offices into the database maintained by the Appropriations Committee, last accessed
July 18, 2021
S O U R C E House Committee on Appropriations
P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 5/11/21 15
 64 senators submitted Congressionally Directed Spending
requests for FY2022

• Congressionally Direct Spending requests for FY2022 totaled $27,640,443,478

• 45 Democrats, 2 Independents, and 17 Republicans submitted 8,007 requests
• While nearly half of Republican representatives submitted Community Project Funding requests, only one-third of
Republican senators submitted Congressionally Directed Spending requests

Number of requests Requested spending amount

Democrats Democrats
7,105 requests $22,331,349,496

Republicans
696 requests Republicans
Independents2 $4,054,691,982
06 requests
Independents
$1,254,402,000
*Includes duplicate requests submitted by Senators from the same state
S O U R C E Senate Committee on Appropriations
P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 8/3/21 16
 Projects in Minnesota, New York, California, Maine, and Oregon
accounted for nearly half of total requested funding
■ $0 ■ <$250M ■ $250-$500M ■ $500-$750M ■ $750M-$1B ■ $1B-$2B ■ $2B-$3B ■ $3B+

AK ME

VT NH

WA ID MT ND MN IL WI MI NY RI MA

OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT

CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE States with the highest

number of requests:
1. New York (1,306)
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC 2. Minnesota (676)
3. Oregon (647)
OK LA MS AL GA 4. California (578)
5. West Virginia (388)
HI TX FL

*Includes duplicate requests submitted by Senators from the same state

S O U R C E Senate Committee on Appropriations
P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 8/3/21 17
 Major policy changes in President Biden’s FY22 budget request

Creates the Advanced Research Increases the maximum Pell Grant by Does not renew the Hyde
Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H) $400 and makes Pell Grants available Amendment, which bans federal
to DREAMers funding for abortions

Allocates $1.2 billion for the Green Includes $8.7 billion to the CDC, the Provides for a $20 billion increase in
Climate Fund as part of reentry to largest budget authority increase in Title I funding to advance equity in
the Paris Climate Agreement almost 20 years K-12 education

S O U R C E Office of Management and Budget, USA Today, Vox.

P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 6/1/21
 2022 HOUSE RACES IN-DEPTH

For more insight on the 2022 House races, read David

Wasserman’s analysis at
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

Wasserman’s five factors that will decide House control in 2022

1 Redistricting
 Republicans have a clear advantage in redistricting, with final authority over maps in 20 states totaling 187
districts compared to Democrats’ 75 districts across eight states

2 The political environment

 President Biden’s approval rating fell below 50% in August for the first time amid fallout from Afghanistan, rising
inflationary pressure, and the toll of the Delta variant

3 Retirements
 A similar number of Republicans and Democrats have announced their retirements so far; however, only one open
GOP seat is in a competitive district, while all open Dem seats except for one are competitive

4 Recruitment
 More Republicans than Democrats who lost by less than six points in 2020 have announced they are running
again; Democrats are off to a slower recruiting start but are optimistic about their candidates

5 Turnout dynamics
 The midterms tend to draw a whiter, older electorate than presidential elections, providing Republicans an advantage,
but they also draw more college-educated voters which have become increasingly Democratic
S O U R C E The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
P R E S E N T A T I O N C E N T E R 9/13/21
 Republicans are in a better position to determine the next
decade’s House seats

A NA LY S I S O F H O U S E S E AT CO NT R O L
Redistricting state control map
■ Democratic ■ Republican ■ Split ■ Commission ■ At-large states

seats are
AK ME
187 controlled by
Republicans
VT NH

WA ID MT ND MN IL WI MI NY * RI MA seats are

* * 75 controlled by
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT Democrats

CA UT * CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
seats are
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC 121 controlled by
commissions
OK LA MS AL GA
will be drawn in
HI TX FL 46 states with split-
party control or
by courts
*Commissions that are subject to being overruled by partisan legislatures

S O U R C E The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

S L I D E L A S T U P D A T E D O N 7/15/21 20
 Biden’s approval ratings dropped amid a COVID-19 surge and America’s
withdrawal from Afghanistan
Do you approve or disapprove of President Biden’s job performance?
AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL RESPONSES

RCP-Approve RCP-Dis. 538-Approve 538-Dis. NBC/WSJ-Approve NBC/WSJ-Dis.

60

50

40

30

20

10

45.3% 49.8% 45.7% 48.8% 49% 48%

RealClearPolitics Average as NBC News/WSJ

FiveThirtyEight Average
of September 16, 2021 Last poll: August 22, 2021
as of September 17, 2021

S O U R C E RealClearPolitics.com, FiveThirtyEight.com, NBC News/WSJ.

S L I D E L A S T U P D A T E D O N 9/17/21
 Open Democratic seats are in more
competitive districts than open
House retirements Republican seats
Democratic seats Republican seats

District Incumbent PVI District Incumbent PVI

WI-03 Ron Kind R+4 NY-01 Lee Zeldin** R+6

IL-17 Cheri Bustos R+2 NY-23 Tom Reed R+9

PA-17 Conor Lamb* R+2 OH-16 Anthony Gonzalez R+10

FL-13 Charlie Crist** EVEN GA-10 Jody Hice** R+13

OH-13 Tim Ryan* D+1 AL-05 Mo Brooks* R+17

AZ-02 Ann Kirkpatrick D+2 MO-04 Vicky Hartzler* R+20

TX-34 Filemon Vela D+5 NC-13 Ted Budd* R+20

FL-10 Val Demings* D+12 MO-07 Billy Long* R+24

TX-08 Kevin Brady R+25

*Denotes candidates seeking a Senate seat; **Denotes candidates seeking other offices
S O U R C E The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Ballotpedia
S L I D E L A S T U P D A T E D O N 9/17/21
 Non-white and college-educated voters are a growing share of the
electorate
Demographic shares of the electorate, 2008-2020
Voter
group 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

White 77% 79% 75% 79% 74% 75% 72%

Non-white 23% 21% 25% 21% 26% 25% 28%

18-29 16% 9% 15% 8% 15% 12% 16%

30-44 24% 20% 23% 18% 22% 21% 23%

45-64 39% 45% 40% 43% 38% 38% 35%

65+ 20% 26% 23% 31% 25% 29% 26%

College 32% 36% 35% 39% 37% 40% 37%

Non-college 68% 64% 65% 61% 63% 60% 63%

Key demographic The White share of the electorate fell 5% while the non-White share rose 5%
trends, 2008-2020
Turnout among individuals 65+ increased by 6% and decreased by 4% among 45-64 year olds

The share of college educated voters rose 5% while non-college educated voters dropped by 5%

S O U R C E The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

S L I D E L A S T U P D A T E D O N 9/13/21
 Presidential succession overview
BACKGROUND
25th AMENDMENT TO THE US CONSTITUTION
• Section 1 of the 25th Amendment to the
US Constitution states that when the
office of President of the United States
becomes vacant due to “removal…death
or resignation” of the President, “the Vice
President shall become President”
• Section 2 of the 25th Amendment
outlines the process for appointing and
confirming the next Vice President: when
the office of Vice President becomes
vacant for any reason, the President shall
nominate a successor who must be
confirmed by a majority vote of both
chambers of Congress
SOURCE Congressional Research Service
P R E S N E T A T I O N C E N T E R 9/20/21
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
• The Succession Act of 1947 outlines the
path of succession should the offices of
President and Vice President be vacant
simultaneously
• All potential presidential successors must
be at least 35 years old and a “natural
born” US citizen who has lived in the US
for at least 14 years
• Additionally, anyone serving as acting
President can be supplanted or “bumped”
if a person holding an office higher in the
order of succession assumes the position
 Presidential succession overview

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRESIDENT BIDEN AND VICE THE ORDER OF PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION
PRESIDENT HARRIS
• Should President Biden be unable to 1. President
complete his term for any reason, Vice 2. Vice President
President Harris would become President of 3. Speaker of the House
the United States 4. Senate President pro tempore
5. Secretary of State
• Vice President Harris’ new VP pick would be
6. Secretary of the Treasury
confirmed by a simple majority in both
houses of Congress; with an evenly divided 7. Secretary of Defense
Senate and slim Democratic margins in the 8. Attorney General
House, Harris’ nominee would need support 9. Secretary of the Interior
from across the Democratic party as well as 10. Secretary of Agriculture
some bipartisan support 11. Secretary of Commerce
12. Secretary of Labor
• Under the 22nd Amendment, Harris would be 13. Secretary of HHS
eligible to be elected to serve two additional 14. Secretary of HUD
terms as President if she served less than two 15. Secretary of Transportation
years of Biden’s term; otherwise, she would
16. Secretary of Energy
be eligible to be elected to serve one
17. Secretary of Education
additional term
18. Secretary of Veterans Affairs
19. Secretary of Homeland Security

SOURCE Congressional Research Service

P R E S N E T A T I O N C E N T E R 9/20/21
But I Thought Al Haig Was In Charge...??
Let’s Set the Stage,
Here...
 NOW, BACK TO FEDERALISTS V. ANTI-
FEDERALISTS

THERE WERE 85 ESSAYS THAT

COMPRISED THE FEDERALIST PRINCIPAL AUTHORS WERE
PAPERS. THE ORIGINAL PLAN ALEXANDER HAMILTON, JAMES JOHN JAY? 5
WAS TO WRITE 25 ESSAYS OVER MADISON AND JOHN JAY.
SIX MONTHS.

AGAIN, BENDING TO THE

POLITICAL NORM AT THE TIME,
THEY WERE PUBLISHED UNDER
JAMES MADISON? 29 ALEXANDER HAMILTON? 51!
THE PEN NAME “PUBLIUS”
WHEN THEY WERE PUBLISHED
IN 1787-1788.
 FEDERALISTS V. ANTI-
FEDERALISTS
• FORTUNATELY FOR YOU, WE ONLY HAD TO READ
A HANDFUL OF THE FEDERALIST PAPERS BUT I
WANTED YOU TO KNOW THAT THEY WEREN’T
ORIGINALLY KNOW AS THE FEDERALIST PAPERS
BUT “FEDERALIST” UNDER THE PEN NAME OF
PUBLIUS.
Let’s Roll the First
Hamilton Clip!
 IV. FEDERALISTS V. ANTI-FEDERALISTS

• HAMILTON CHOSE THE NAME “PUBLIUS” TO HONOR

THE GREAT ROMAN PUBLIUS VALERIUS PUBLICOLA –
INSTRUMENTAL IN THE FOUNDING OF THE ROMAN
EMPIRE.

• HAMILTON FELT THAT HIS ASPIRATIONAL LEADERSHIP

WOULD BE INSTRUMENTAL IN ESTABLISHING THE
NEW AMERICAN REPUBLIC. HE WOULD BE PROVEN
CORRECT.
IV.
FEDERALISTS V.
ANTI-FEDERALISTS

HAMILTON’S FOCUS ON THE PRESIDENCY IS CONTAINED

WITHIN FEDERALIST PAPERS 69-77.

RECALL AGAIN THE FEDERALIST PAPERS WERE PUBLISHED

IN A SERIES OF NY NEWSPAPERS FROM OCTOBER 27, 1787
– MAY 28, 1788.

FEDERALIST 69 WAS PUBLISHED ON MARCH 14, 1788 TO

DIRECTLY ATTACK AND REBUT THE CHARGE THAT THE
PRESIDENCY WAS NOTHING MORE THAN THE MONARCHY
IN AMERICAN CLOTHING.
IV. FEDERALISTS V. ANTI-FEDERALISTS

FOR EXAMPLE, WHILE THE KING OF ENGLAND WAS A MONARCH WHOSE

WHILE TERM IN OFFICE WAS LIFETIME, HAMILTON WOULD ARGUE THAT THE
PRESIDENT WAS ELECTED TO A LIMITED TERM IN OFFICE.

WHILE THE KING COULD VETO ANY ACTION TAKEN BY THE LEGISLATURE, THE
WHILE CONGRESS IN AMERICA COULD OVER-TURN A PRESIDENT’S VETO OF
LEGISLATION.

WHILE PAPERS 70-73 WERE PUBLISHED THE FOLLOWING WEEK, 69

WHILE CONTAINS THE MOST FIRE AND FERVER FOR DEFENDING THE
CONSTITUTION.
 IV. FEDERALISTS V. ANTI-FEDERALISTS

• AT THE SAME TIME, HAMILTON THOUGHT PAPERS 70-73

DESCRIBED THE HEART AND ESSENCE OF THE PRESIDENCY –
THE CHIEF VIRTUE OF WHICH WAS ENERGY.

• THE 1ST COMPONENT OF ENERGY WE FIND IS IN 70, WHERE

HAMILTON ARGUES THAT THE SOLITARY DESIGN OF THE
EXECUTIVE PROVIDES THE PRESIDENCY W/THE DESIRABLE
ATTRIBUTES OF: ”DECISION, ACTIVITY, SECRECY AND
DISPATCH.” ALONG WITH “VIGOR AND EXPEDITION.”
Energy!!
 IV. FEDERALISTS V. ANTI-FEDERALISTS

• HAMILTON FOUND HIS NEXT/2ND FORM OF ENERGY IN FEDERALIST 71 – THE

PRESIDENT’S DEFINED DURATION OF TIME IN OFFICE.

• HE BELIEVED THAT A 4 YEAR TERM WAS LONG ENOUGH FOR A PRESIDENT TO

WITHSTAND: “EVERY SUDDEN BREEZE OF PASSION OR…EVERY TRANSIENT
IMPULSE” THAT “AMBITIOUS” AND “AVARICIOUS” DEMOGOGUES COULD
IGNITE IN THE PEOPLE.

• MOREOVER, HAMILTON BELIEVED THAT THE 4 YEAR TERM IN OFFICE COULD

ALLOW THE PRESIDENT TO BE RESISTANT TO BEING BENT BY THE WILL OF THE
CONGRESS.

• WHAT DO YOU THINK?

 IV. FEDERALISTS V. ANTI-FEDERALISTS

• MICHAEL NELSON TELLS US THAT THE ENERGY CONTAINED IN 72 IS A

CORROLARY TO 71 – DURATION IN OFFICE FOLLOWED BY ELIGIBILITY FOR
RE-ELECTION.

• HAMILTON ARGUED THAT: “THE DESIRE FOR REWARD IS ONE OF THE

STRONGEST INCENTIVES OF HUMAN CONDUCT…WOULD IT PROMOTE THE
PEACE OF THE COMMUNITY, OR THE STABILITY OF THE GOVERNMENT TO
HAVE HALF A DOZEN MEN WHO HAD CREDIT ENOUGH TO BE RAISED TO
THE SEAT OF THE SUPREME MAGISTRY, WANDERING AMONG THE PEOPLE
LIKE DISCONTENTED GHOSTS, AND SIGHING FOR PLACE WHICH THEY WERE
DESTINED NEVER MORE TO POSSESS?

• WHAT SAY YOU?

 IV. FEDERALISTS V. ANTI-FEDERALISTS

• FINALLY, HAMILTON ARGUES IN #73 THAT THE 3RD INGREDIENT

OF ENERGY OF THE PRESIDENCY/EXECUTIVE IS “ADEQUATE
PROVISION FOR ITS SUPPORT.”

• THIS IS MANIFEST IN THAT CONGRESS CANNOT CHANGE THE

PRESIDENT’S SALARY DURING THE CURRENT TERM IN OFFICE AS
WELL AS THE PRESIDENT’S POWERS ARE ENUMERATED POWERS
VESTED BY THE CONSTITUTION IN ARTICLE II PRIMARILY BUT
ALSO THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS THE VETO POWER IN ARTICLE I.
NOTE ALSO THAT THE PRESIDENT’S POWERS ARE STRONGEST,
PERHAPS, WHEN ACTING AS COMMANDER IN CHIEF.
The Constitution – Ch. 2...
The Constitution Entered into Force on March 4, 1789.
Since Adoption in 1789, Congress has sent 33 Amendments to the
States for Verification – 27 have been adopted..
Consider This: The 27th Amendment was Originally Proposed on
9/25/1789 but ultimately ratified on 5/7/1992!!
 Much of
Congressional Power
is in Article I. of the
Constitution
Much of the Executive Power is Contained in Article II. of the
Constitution.
MAKING AMERICA SAFE FOR DEMOCRACY
 • We Should start with the Preamble to
Underscore Federalists Vision:

– “WE THE PEOPLE IN ORDER TO FORM

MAKING A MORE PERFECT UNION, ESTABLISH
JUSTICE, INSURE DOMESTIC
AMERICA TRANQUALITY, PROVIDE FOR TH4E
SAFE FOR COMMON DEFENCE, PROMOTE THE
GENERAL WELFARE, AND SECURE
DEMOCRACY THE BLESSINGS OF LIBERTY TO
OURSELVES AND OUR POSTERITY, DO
ORDAIN AND ESTABLISH THIS
CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED
STATES.
School House
Rock!!
 MAKING AMERICA SAFE FOR DEMOCRACY

Clear the Framers wanted to emphasize all they favored,

Clear rather than opposed.

Note 1st Clause: We The People…Intentional on Several

Note Levels…Elaborate

Establish Justice, ensure domestic Tranquility, provide for

Establish the Common Defense and Promote General Welfare
 MAKING AMERICA SAFE FOR DEMOCRACY

• Establish Justice, Ensure Domestic Tranquility, Provide for the Common

Defense and Promote General Welfare.

• WHY? THINK OF THE STAMP ACT OF 1765 WHICH PASSED THE BRITISH
PARLIAMENT AND ALLOWED THEM TO TAX NEWSPAPERS AND LEGAL
AND COMMERCIAL DOCUMENTS IN THE COLONIES.

• THINK OF THE BOSTON TEA PARTY OF DECEMBER 16, 1773 – COLONISTS

WERE MAD BY THE ABILITY OF BRITISH PARLIAMENT TO TAX ONE OF
THEIR FAVORITE ITEMS – TEA.

• THINK THE QUARTERING ACT OF 1774 WHICH ALLOWED BRITISH

SOLDIERS TO BOARD IN PRIVATE HOMES IN THE COLONIES.
 MAKING AMERICA SAFE FOR DEMOCRACY

ARTICLE I. OF THE CONSTITUTION IS LARGELY THE PROVINCE OF

CONGRESS AND THEIR POWERS.

SINCE THIS IS A CLASS ON THE PRESIDENCY, WE WON’T PAUSE MUCH

HERE OTHER THAN TO SAY THAT POTUS/CONGRESS ARE OFTEN AT
LOGGERHEADS AS TO WHO RULES THE ROOST.
PRESIDENT IS COMMANDER IN CHIEF OF THE ARMED FORCES OF THE
U.S. BUT CONGRESS HAS THE ABILITY TO DECLARE WAR, NOT THE
PRESIDENT.
PRESIDENT IS FREE TO NEGOTIATE TREATIES W/FOREIGN NATIONS,
BUT SAID TREATY MUST BE RATIFIED WITH THE ADVICE AND
CONSENT OF THE SENATE.
 Reflect Carefully – Many of These
Provisions Offended the Anti-
Federalists.....

PRESIDENT IS COMMANDER IN CHIEF

OF THE ARMED FORCES OF THE U.S.
BUT CONGRESS HAS THE ABILITY TO
DECLARE WAR, NOT THE PRESIDENT.

PRESIDENT IS FREE TO NEGOTIATE

TREATIES W/FOREIGN NATIONS, BUT
SAID TREATY MUST BE RATIFIED WITH
THE ADVICE AND CONSENT OF THE
SENATE.
 MAKING AMERICA SAFE FOR DEMOCRACY

PRESIDENT IS FREE TO NEGOTIATE TREATIES W/FOREIGN

NATIONS, BUT SAID TREATY MUST BE RATIFIED WITH
THE ADVICE AND CONSENT OF THE SENATE.

REMEMBER THAT THE ANTI-FEDERALISTS DID NOT LIKE

THIS PROVISION – THEY WANTED THE HOUSE TO HAVE A
VOICE HERE WHICH WAS NOT SUBSEQUENTLY ADOPTED
IN THE CONSTITUTION.
 HOW THE PRESIDENT CAN WORK AROUND CONGRESS
Foreign policy powers enable the president to control the
nation’s international positioning and agenda

Executive powers in setting foreign policy

Diplomatic Trade Military

• The president is the nation’s • The president has the authority • As commander-in-chief, the
main diplomatic point of • The president
to engage
engage
has the authority
in and
and enforce
enforce trade
trade president has nearly unchecked
to in
contact with foreign leaders agreements
agreements ability to engage in national
and also has the ability to defense
dictate entrance into • Example: Obama chose not to
• Example:
enforce ananObama chose not
international to
trade • Example: The president has
international partnerships and enforce international trade
agreements council ruling which would unilateral control over the
council ruling which
have prevented
prevented Applewould
from military and can generally enter
have Apple from
• Example: One of the first things selling iPads and iPhones in the
the into international engagements
selling iPads and iPhones in
presidents have done when U.S.
U.S. without check; Congress could
entering into office is dictate cut military funding to stop an
whether or not the U.S. will operation, but such a move
work with international would be difficult and likely
organizations that support or unpopular
oppose abortion rights

Sources: National Journal Research, 2014; Dante D’Orazio, “President Obama vetoes Samsung patent ban on iPhone 4 and select iPads,” The Verge, August 3, 2013;
Muharrem Fevzi Çelik, “Hand Shake,” 2016; Parkjisun, “Global,” 2016; Road Signs, “Tank,” 2016.

January 5, 2017 | Hunter Hamrick 53

 MAKING AMERICA SAFE FOR DEMOCRACY

THIS TENSION HAS SHOWN ITSELF IN THE LAST

DECADE WITH THE MANNER IN WHICH
POTUS/CONGRESS DEAL WITH APPOINTMENTS.

WHAT IS A RECESS APPOINTMENT?

HOW HAS THIS MANIFEST ITSELF IN RECENT YEARS?

• RICHARD CORDRAY – CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION BOARD

(CFPB)
• MERRICK GARLAND FOR SUPREME CT.
 HOW THE PRESIDENT CAN WORK AROUND CONGRESS
Recess appointments enable the president to select executive
branch leaders

Recess appointment process

Session Year 1
Session Year 1

Session Year 2

RECESS

President can appoint

individuals during
senate recesses of ten Appointments expire at
or more days, but the end of the next
cannot appoint during session of Congress
pro forma sessions

Analysis
• Presidential recess appointments allow the president to impact the policy
landscape by appointing new staff to executive agencies
• The Supreme Court ruling in NLRB v. Noel Canning prevents the use of recess
appointments when the Senate is in a pro forma session (a session without formal
debate or action, where the body is nominally declared in session)

Sources: Jess Bravin and Melanie Trottman, “Supreme Court Narrows President’s Recess-Appointment Powers,” Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2014; G. Roger King and Bryan J. Leitch, “The Impact of the Supreme Court’s Noel Canning Decision–
Years of Litigation on the Horizon for the NLRB,” Bloomberg BNA, June 27, 2014; Vivian S. Chu and Todd Garvey, “Executive Orders: Issuance, Modification, and Revocation,” Congressional Research Service, April 16, 2014.

January 5, 2017 | Hunter Hamrick 55

 HOW THE PRESIDENT CAN WORK AROUND CONGRESS

Executive order is a vaguely defined power

Constitutional language on executive power and definition

US Constitution Federal register

Executive orders are official

documents, numbered
Article II, Section 1. Clause 1 consecutively, through which the
president manages the operations
The executive power shall be vested in a of the federal government
President of the United States of America...

Article II, Section 3. Clause 5

…he shall take care that the laws be
faithfully executed, and shall commission
all the officers of the United States. Analysis
• Historically, related to routine administrative
matters and internal operations of federal
agencies
• In recent times, used more broadly to mandate
programs and policies

Sources: Office of the Federal Register, “Executive Orders,” 2016; Legal Information Institute, “Executive Power,” Cornell University.
January 5, 2017 | Hunter Hamrick 56
 HOW THE PRESIDENT CAN WORK AROUND CONGRESS

Executive orders give the president flexibility to work around

Congress to set policy
Functions and examples of executive orders

Clarify or alter legislation passed by Congress

Example: Obama signed an executive order forbidding federal funds attached to the ACA
from being spent on abortion

Respond to current events

Example: Obama signed an executive order setting up a commission to settle a railroad
strike

Bypass partisan opposition

Example: Obama signed an executive order increasing the minimum wage for federal
contractors after congressional inaction on minimum wage legislation

Change or reverse a previous executive order

Example: Obama signed an executive order revoking restrictions on executive branch
archiving put in place under George W. Bush

Sources: National Journal Research, 2016; Federal Register Executive Orders Disposition Tables.
January 5, 2017 | Hunter Hamrick 57
 MAKING AMERICA SAFE FOR DEMOCRACY

REFER BACK TO CHS. 2-3 FROM “THE AMERICAN

PRESIDENCY.

HERE, MILKIS & NELSON DEMONSTRATE HOW THE

FRAMERS FOUGHT BEHIND THE SCENES TO DESIGN THE
PRESIDENCY AND HOW WASHINGTON AND ADAMS
WERE INSTRUMENTAL IN BRINGING THE
CONSTITUTIONAL PRESIDENCY TO LIFE.

SO, HOW DID THEY DO IT?

 PRESIDENTIAL CLEMENCY

Differences between commutations and pardons

Commutation Pardon

Expression of forgiveness, not innocence,

Reduction of a sentence, does not imply
granted if an individual accepts responsibility
innocence and does not negate any civil
for a crime and negates any civil disability
disability resulting from the conviction
resulting from the conviction

Requirements:
Requirements:
Must report to prison to begin sentence
Must apply at least five years after release of
Must not be challenging the conviction in
most recent criminal conviction*
court

Criteria for selection:

Criteria for selection: • Post-conviction conduct, character and
• Disparity or undue severity of the sentence reputation
• Critical illness or old age • Seriousness and recentness of the offense
• Service to the government by the applicant • Acceptance of responsibility and remorse
• Need for relief

*According to the Department of Justice. Ex parte Garland

(1866) states that the power to pardon may be exercised at any
Sources: “Frequently asked questions concerning executive clemency,” Department of Justice. time, even before legal proceedings begin.

May 31, 2018 | Adriana Morton 59

 PRESIDENTIAL CLEMENCY

The authority for presidential clemency is found directly in the

Constitution, but certain aspects remain unclear

Article II, Section 2, Clause 1 of the Limits to the presidential pardon

Constitution • The pardon cannot be used to overrule
impeachment proceedings
• Pardons are limited to federal offenses and those
“The President…shall have Power to grant
offenses prosecuted by the U.S. attorney for D.C. in
Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the the D.C. Superior Court
United States, except in cases of Impeachment” • Pardons, therefore, are not applicable to state
offenses

The pardon and President Trump

• Anyone pardoned by the president would receive
immunity for possible past crimes, including those
investigated by Special Counsel Robert Mueller
• If Trump does not pardon Russian officials, anyone
involved could still be convicted as a co-conspirator to
Lawrence Kupers Russian crimes
• Deputy pardon attorney • Individuals who are pardoned would no longer be able
to invoke the Fifth Amendment right against self-
• Official of the Department of Justice
incrimination
• Assists the president in exercising clemency • Pardons for personal reasons rather than for public
powers by reviewing and investigating welfare or mercy could add to obstruction of justice
applications and making recommendations charges
Sources: “Frequently asked questions concerning executive clemency,” Department of Justice; Andrew Rudalevige, “Here’s what you need to know about the presidential power to pardon,” Washington Post,
July 24, 2017; Charlie Savage, “Can Trump Pardon Himself? Explaining Presidential Clemency Powers,” NY Times, July 21, 2017.

May 31, 2018 | Adriana Morton 60

 PRESIDENTIAL CLEMENCY

Pardons and commutations have a history of controversy

Most notable pardons and commutations

President Pardon or commutation

George Washington Whiskey rebels: two rebels were found guilty of treason after the 1794 riots, but
eventually became the first citizens pardoned

Andrew Johnson Confederate citizens: following the Civil War, citizens of the Confederacy who owned
property worth less than $20,000 were pardoned if they swore an oath to the
Constitution and Union

Richard Nixon Jimmy Hoffa: Hoffa was the leader of the Teamsters and was convicted of tampering
with a jury and fraud. He was pardoned on the condition that he not engage in
management of any labor organization

Gerald Ford Richard Nixon: after Watergate and Nixon’s resignation, his successor pardoned him,
a move that may have ultimately cost Ford the next election

Jimmy Carter Draft dodgers: Carter pardoned those who avoided the Vietnam War by leaving the
United States or not registering, but excluded deserters

George H.W. Bush Caspar Weinberger: the former defense secretary was pardoned after his participation
in the Iran-Contra Affair and following conviction for lying to the independent
counsel about his involvement

Bill Clinton Patty Hearst: Hearst was kidnapped and subsequently robbed a bank along with her
captors. President Carter commuted her sentence because of the circumstances and
Clinton ultimately pardoned her completely

Sources: “Notorious Presidential Pardons,” Time.

May 31, 2018 | Presentation Center 61

 PRESIDENTIAL CLEMENCY

Most recent presidents have not granted pardons in the first

fiscal year of their presidency
Number of pardons granted in first fiscal year, by president

166

147

Trump’s pardon of Joe Arpaio

came in the first fiscal year of
his presidency, which is
unusual for recent presidents

24

9
0 0 2 0 0 0 1
Kennedy Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Reagan H.W. Bush Clinton Bush Obama Trump

Sources: “Clemency Statistics,” US Department of Justice, July 2,2018.

July 10, 2018 | Presentation Center 62

 PRESIDENTIAL CLEMENCY

A list of President Trump’s pardons

Pardoned: Aug. 25, 2017 Pardoned: May 31, 2018
Joe Arpaio, a former Arizona sheriff, was Dinesh D'Souza pleaded guilty to
Trump’s first presidential pardon. Arpaio was campaign finance fraud for making illegal
sentenced to jail for criminal contempt for his campaign contributions in other people’s names.
practices handling undocumented immigrants. Trump said “a quick minor fine” would have
been more appropriate.

Pardoned: March 9, 2018 Pardoned: Jul. 10, 2018

Kristian Saucier, a Navy sailor, took pictures Dwight and Steve Hammond (father and
of the nuclear submarine on which he was son) set fire to federal land in Oregon and
stationed. He was convicted of unauthorized were imprisoned for three months and one
retention of classified national security year, respectively. Obama-era attorneys
information. successfully appealed their sentences,
arguing that they did not meet the five year
Pardoned: April 13, 2018 minimum required by law. Their re-
Lewis “Scooter” Libby was the chief imprisonment outraged militia groups who
of staff to former Vice President Dick Cheney. responded by taking over a federal facility in
He was indicted for lying about his role in the Oregon.
leak of the identity of an overseas, undercover
CIA officer.

Pardoned: May 24, 2018

Jack Johnson, the first black
heavyweight boxing champion who died in 1946,
was posthumously pardoned. He was convicted
for transporting a white woman across state
lines in 1913.

Sources: John Eligon and Michael D. Shear, “Trump Pardons Jack Johnson, Heavyweight Boxing Champion,” New York Times, May 24, 2018; Peter Baker and Eileen Sullivan, “Trump Pardons Dinesh D’Souza, Weighs Leniency for Rod Blagojevich and Martha
Stewart,” New York Times, May 31, 2018; Kevin Liptak, Daniella Diaz and Sophie Tatum, “Trump pardons former Sheriff Joe Arpaio,” CNN August 27, 2017; Andrew Restuccia and Josh Gerstein, “Trump issues pardon for Lewis 'Scooter' Libby,” Politico, April 13,
2018; Stephen Nelson, “Trump pardons Kristian Saucier, former sailor jailed for submarine pictures, The Washington Examiner, March 9, 2018; Britzky, Haley. “Trump Pardons 2 Oregon Ranchers Convicted of Arson.” Axios, July 10, 2018

July 10, 2018 | Presentation Center 63

A list of President Trump’s commutations
Commuted: December 20, 2017 Commuted: June 6, 2018

Sholom Rubashkin was indicted for Alice Marie Johnson was serving a life
money laundering. Congress and high- ranking sentence since 1996 for a nonviolent drug
officials argued the sentence was too harsh for a conviction. Her case was brought to his
first-time, nonviolent offense. attention by the reality-TV star Kim
Kardashian West.

Potential pardons Trump is reportedly considering

Rod Blagojevich was governor of Illinois Martha Stewart, businesswoman and

from 2003 until 2009, when he was TV personality, was convicted on felony
impeached and removed from office on charges of conspiracy, obstruction of an
charges he solicited bribes for President- agency proceeding and making false
elect Obama’s vacant Senate seat. statements to federal investigators in
Speaking with reporters, Trump said, “18 March 2004. Trump told reporters, “I
years in jail for being stupid and saying think to a certain extent Martha Stewart
things that every other politician, you was harshly and unfairly treated. And
know that many other politicians say.”* she used to be my biggest fan in the
world.”

*Blagojevich was sentenced to 14 years; Trump misstated

the length of the sentence in his comments to reporters

Sources: Shafer, Jack, et al. “Trump Commutes Sentence of Kosher Meatpacking Executive.” About Us, POLITICO, 20 Dec. 2017, www.politico.com/story/2017/12/20/trump-commutes-sentence-kosher-meatpacking-business-executive-
rubashkin-311389; Shafer, Jack, et al. “Trump Floats Commutation for Blagojevich, Pardon for Martha Stewart.” About Us, POLITICO, 31 May 2018, www.politico.com/story/2018/05/31/trump-floats-commutation-for-blagojevich-pardon-
for-martha-stewart-615358.

July 10, 2018 | Presentation Center 64

 MAKING AMERICA SAFE FOR DEMOCRACY

FINALLY, AS YOU LOOK TO CH. 3, NOTICE THAT THERE

WAS A CONTROVERSY ABOUT WHAT POTUS SHOULD
BE CALLED.

VP ADAMS, PERHAPS FOR OBVIOUS REASONS,

FAVORED AN EXALTED TITLE: “MOST ILLUSTRIOUS
AND MOST EXCELLENT,” “HIS ELECTIVE MAJESTY,”
“HIS MIGHTINESS,” OR “HIS HIGHNESS THE
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES AND PROTECTOR
OF THE RIGHTS OF THE SAME.” MY PERSONAL
FAVORITE!
 MAKING AMERICA SAFE FOR DEMOCRACY

WASHINGTON ACTUALLY FAVORED THE LAST

TITLE…UNTIL MADISON RELAYED THE
UPROAR SURROUNDING SUCH LOFTY TITLES.

HERE, THE RATHER LARGE JOHN ADAMS WAS

TEASED AS “HIS ROTUNDITY!”

DURING WASHINGTON’S FIRST TERM IN

OFFICE HE WORKED W/CONGRESS TO
ESTABLISH DEPARTMENTS OF STATE,
TREASURY AND WAR.
Which Takes Us to the Election of 1796!!
Washington’s
Farewell Address
In 1796 Washington was 64 Years Old and Suffering from Physical
and Political Ails.
He and Hamilton Crafted an Address to Explain Why He Wouldn’t
Seek a 3rd Term.
Recognize This: Washington Feareed Political
Partisanship – Precisely What We Have Today!!
By the Election of 1796
– Political Parties
Started to Emerge
Federalists Largely Drew
Support from New England,
Favored Strong National
Govt. and Hamilton’s
Economic Plans
Republicans – Later Democratic
Republicans led by Southerners
Jefferson and Madison, Disliked
Hamilton’s Economic Agenda. Explain.
 • THE CONSTITUTION CONVENTION
DELEGATES REJECTED DIRECT ELECTION
OF POTUS – THIS IS WHY WE ARE A
CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC AND NOT
AN OUTRIGHT DEMOCRACY – FRAMERS
DIDN’T WANT PEOPLE DIRECTLY TO
ELECT POTUS.
MAKING
• HENCE – CREATION OF ELECTORAL
AMERICA SAFE COLLEGE.

FOR – NOTE HERE THAT BUSH 43 AND

HILLARY CLINTON LOST THE
DEMOCRACY POPULAR VOTE BUT WERE
ELECTED POTUS VIA ELECTORAL
COLLEGE.

– HOW DOES THE ELECTORAL

COLLEGE WORK?
Back to
Elections
 ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Why was the Elector College adopted?

Constitutional components of the Electoral College

Constitutional compromise Qualifications for electors

• The Electoral College was established by the founding • The Constitution does not allow members of Congress
fathers as a compromise between a popular vote and a and any ”Person holding an Office or Trust or Profit
vote by members of Congress under the United States” to be appointed an elector
• Each state is awarded the same number of delegates as it • Beyond this, the requirements vary state by state
has representatives in the House, which is based on the
population of the state
• Some constitutional scholars claim that the Electoral
College was created in part to protect slavery because it
gave southern states more of a voice when northern
voters outnumbered them
• Some also claim that the founding fathers established the
system to allow electors to prevent a dangerous or
foreign-influenced candidate that appeals to the masses Not everyone has an equal vote…
from becoming president • Wyoming, the least populous state, has 560,000 people and
3 electoral vote
• California, the most populous state, has 37 million people
and 55 electoral votes

Source: National Archives and Records Administration; National Journal research, 2016; Kamala Kelkar, “Electoral College is vestige of slavery, say some Constitutional
scholars,” PBS, November 6, 2016;
December 13, 2016 | Owen Minott 78
 ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Electors to cast final votes for president on December 19th

The Electoral College process
The system for selecting the US president
• Political parties nominate electors in each state sometime before
election day, usually at state party conventions
• On election day, the candidate that wins a given state wins all of
1. Selection of the electors
the electors from that state*; this means that if a Democratic
candidate wins the state of New York, all of the electors that
Democrats nominated get to cast an electoral vote for president
The Electoral
College process
• Electors meet in their state and vote for president and vice
consists of three 2. Electors vote for President and VP president on separate ballots
steps: • In 2016, electors will meet on December 19 to cast final votes

• Congress meets in a joint session to count the electoral votes

3. Congress counts elector votes
538 – number of electors in the electoral college
270 – number of elector votes requited to win presidency
• In 2017, Congress will meet on January 6 to count the electoral
votes
*The only exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, where the
state winner receives two electors and the winner of each
congressional district receives one elector.

Source: National Archives and Records Administration; National Journal research, 2016.
December 12, 2016 | Owen Minott 79
 ELECTORAL COLLEGE

The Electoral College gives voters in

less popular states more of a say

Comparing voters in California and Wyoming

California Wyoming
Most populous state Least populous state
• 37 million people • 560,000 people
• 55 electoral votes • 3 electoral votes

1 electoral vote for 1 electoral vote for

every 670,000 people every 186,000 people

Every vote in California is worth less Every vote in Wyoming is worth 3.6 as
than 1/3 as much as a vote in much as a vote in California
Wyoming

Not everyone has an equal vote…

• If California had the same proportion of electoral votes per person as
Wyoming, it would have about 200 electoral votes
• Critics of the Electoral College also note that voters in swing states receive
much more attention from candidates than voters in deep blue or deep red
states

Source: National Archives and Records Administration; National Journal research, 2016; Kamala Kelkar, “Electoral College is vestige of slavery, say some Constitutional
scholars,” PBS, November 6, 2016; David S. Cohen, “How the Electoral College is rigged the election for Donald Trump,” Rolling Stone, Novemebr 16, 2016.
December 13, 2016 | Owen Minott 80
 ELECTORAL COLLEGE

The Electoral College is probably here to stay

Why repealing the Electoral College is so difficult

Option 1: Constitutional amendment Option 2: State-level workarounds

Because the Electoral College system is laid out in the

constitution, repealing it entirely and replacing it with a
popular vote system would require a constitutional amendment.
States could award all of their States could award their
Step 1: To amend the • The GOP is unlikely to work to electoral votes to the winner electoral votes by district.
constitution, both the House repeal the system that has of the national vote.
and Senate must pass a benefitted them twice recently
proposal with at least two- • The GOP controls congress • The National Popular Vote • Maine and Nebraska already
thirds support. interstate compact has have a system like this
headed this campaign • Recently, the GOP in
• Only once the states that Pennsylvania and Virginia
agree to this system hold a attempted to enact a similar
Step 2: Once both chambers • The GOP also controls a majority of electoral votes system
have passed the bill, 38 state majority of state legislatures, so would it go into place
legislatures have to ratify the this step is another hurdle • 11 states (totaling 165
amendment. • Also, swing states may not Electoral votes) have Most feasible option
want to abandon the position of agreed to the compact, but
importance that the Electoral all of them are blue states
College grants them

1934: Electoral College repeals falls short in the Senate by only 2

votes. 2000: Al Gore (D) wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote.
1977: Popular vote system fails in the Senate 51-48. 2016: Hillary Clinton (D) wins the popular vote but loses the electoral
1992: The most recent constitutional amendment. cote.
Sources: Aaron Blake, “Getting rid of the electoral college? Dream on, Democrats,” The Washington Post, November 9, 2016; National Journal research.

November 10, 2016 | Owen Minott

 ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP

Barack Obama won presidential second term in 2012 by much

larger margin than Trump
2012 Electoral College map
■ Barack Obama ■ Mitt Romney

WA
12
MT ND ME
3 3 4
OR
MN
7 ID
SD 10 NY
6 WI
WY 3 10 MI
29 Barack Obama (D)
3
IA
16
PA
Running Mate: Joe Biden
NE 6 20 Popular Vote: 51.1%
NV 5 IN OH VT 3
6 UT IL
18 States Carried: 26 + DC
CA CO 20 11 WV
6 VA
55 9 KS 5 NH 4
MO 13
6
10 KY 8
NC 15 MA 11
Mitt Romney (R)
AZ OK TN 11
11 NM 7 AR SC RI 4 Running Mate: Paul Ryan
5 6 9 Popular Vote: 47.2%
MS AL GA
6
CT 7 States Carried: 24
9 16
AK TX LA
3 38 NJ 14
8
FL DE 3
HI 29
4 MD 10
HI 4

DC 3

Source: RealClearPolitics, “Electoral College Map,” 2012.

September 28, 2016 | Justin C. Brown and Libbie Wilcox
 ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP

Barack Obama became first African American

president of the United States in 2008
2008 Electoral College map
■ Barack Obama ■ John McCain

WA
11
MT ME
ND VT 3
3 4
OR 3
MN
7 ID NH 4
SD 10 NY Barack Obama (D)
4 WI 31
3
WY 10 MI Running Mate: Joe Biden
3 17
IA PA Popular Vote: 52.9%
NE 21
1 7 States Carried: 28 + DC
NV 4 IL IN OH
5 UT 21 20
CA CO 11 VT 3
5 WV VA
55 9 KS 5
MO 13 NH 4
6 KY 8
11
NC 15 MA 12
AZ TN 11 John McCain (R)
NM OK
10 7 AR SC RI 4 Running Mate: Sarah
5 6 8
AL GA Palin
MS 15 CT 7
9 Popular Vote: 45.7%
6
AK TX LA States Carried: 22
34 NJ 15
3 9
FL DE 3
27
MD 10
HI 4
DC 3

Source: RealClearPolitics, “Electoral College Map,” 2008.

September 28, 2016 | Justin C. Brown and Libbie Wilcox
 ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP

George W. Bush won a second term by

narrowly beating John Kerry
2004 Electoral College map
■ John Kerry ■ George W. Bush

WA
11
MT ME
ND VT 3
3 4
OR 3
MN
7 ID NH 4
SD 10 NY George W. Bush (R)
4 WI 31
3
WY 10 MI Running Mate: Dick Cheney
3 17
IA PA Popular Vote: 50.7%
NE 7 21 MA 12
NV 5 IL OH States Carried: 31
IN
5 UT 21 20 RI 4
CA CO 11
5 WV VA
55 9 KS 5
MO 13 CT 7
6 KY 8
11
NC 15 NJ 15
AZ TN 11 John Kerry (D)
NM OK
10 7 AR SC DE 3 Running Mate: John Edwards
5 6 8
AL GA Popular Vote: 48.3%
MS 15 MD 10
9 States Carried: 19 + DC
6
TX LA DC 3
34 9
AK FL
3 27
HI
4

Source: RealClearPolitics, “Electoral College Map,” 2004.

October 7, 2016 | Justin C. Brown
 • FRAMERS FEARED MANIPULATION OF THE VOTE BY
DIRECT ELECTION BY THE VOTING PUBLIC. HENCE
CREATION OF ELECTORAL COLLEGE.

MAKING • EACH STATE (AND DC) HAS ITS OWN ELECTORS, WHICH
COLLECTIVELY FORM THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
AMERICA • THE WAY TO DETERMINE ELECTORS IS TO ADD UP THE
NUMBER OF REPRESENTATIVES IN A GIVEN STATE AND
SAFE FOR ADD THE TWO SENATORS TO DETERMINE HOW MANY
ELECTORS ARE FROM A GIVEN STATE.

DEMOCRACY • MY HOME STATE OF CA HAS 55 ELECTORS WHILE MANY

OF THE SMALLER STATES ONLY HAVE 3 ELECTORS.