Can coconuts save

the world?
The circumstantial evidence of monolaurin
as a key nutritional supplement in the fight
against COVID-19 spread and mortality
thereby warranting funded controlled
study

John Ritchie
November 16, 2021
“Circumstantial evidence may not
be enough to convict. But it's
almost always enough to reveal
the truth. Isn't it?”
— Chris Pavone
WARNING:
What follows is an amateur data-analytics exercise and
should not be considered as formal medical or nutritional
advice.
Hypothesis

Monolaurin (most commonly found naturally as a laurin

precursor in coconut oil and in human breast milk in finished

form) can play a critical role in disrupting initial infection and

replication of the COVID-19 virus in humans.

Facts
• Lipids are a fundamental building block for healthy human cells and
can be hijacked by parasitical viruses via endocytosis and exocytosis
• COVID-19 is an LCV (Lipid Coated Virus)—an enveloped virus
surrounded by a lipid bilayer
• Numerous studies indicate that monolaurin is an effective fatty acid
that solubilizes fats and can disintegrate viral lipid membranes
• Additional studies indicate that monolaurin can interrupt the
communication and binding of LCVs to healthy host cells
Facts (cont.)
• Coconut meat is comprised of approximately 30-40% coconut oil
• Coconut oil is 48% laurin—the precursor of monolaurin which the
human body readily converts to monolaurin through esterification
• Coconut oil also contains 7% capric acid—another fatty acid that may
have similar beneficial properties to monolaurin

References
1) International Journal of Molecular Sciences, “The Role of Lipid Metabolism in COVID-19 Virus Infection and as a Drug Target” (January 20, 2021)
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32429572/
2) "Antiviral and Antibacterial Actions of Monolaurin and Lauric Acid” by Marcus Ettinger (Aug 16, 2010).
https://www.advancedhealing.com/antiviral-antibacterial-actions-of-monolaurin-and-lauric-acid/
This article references scientific studies published by Archives of Virology, Viruses, Journal of Pharmaceutical Science, Nature, Journal of Clinical Microbiology,
Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy, Scientific Reports and multiple published reports from the NIH.
3) https://www.britannica.com/topic/coconut-oil
Methodology
• This analysis is based on joining the FAOSTAT (The Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations) report published in 2019 (data purchased
via Helgi Library) with Annual Average Coconut Consumption in 2018 and John
Hopkins University CSSE COVID-19 Database as of October 19, 2021.
• Included countries are treated as statistically equivalent regardless of
population. This approach has the benefit of limiting large population countries’
impact on the analysis (e.g., China, India are alleged to be significantly under-
reporting adverse COVID-19 events, some Western countries alleged to be
over-reporting adverse COVID-19 events.)
• Data comparison is based on geo-data mapping, average of population/per
capita or cases per million basis by country
Methodology (cont.)

• Reporting countries with populations <1 million were excluded from analysis
due to many of them being small island nations which are easier to isolate from
exposure and small sample populations. The countries excluded were the:
Maldives, Iceland, Luxembourg, Malta, Montenegro, Cyprus, Fiji, Bahamas, Belize,
Guyana and Suriname.
• Countries had to be in both the JHU COVID-19 database and the 2019 FAO
Coconut Consumption report to be considered
• 125 countries were included in the combined analysis (see Appendix for detail)
Heavy coconut consumption uncommon
2018 Global Coconut Consumption Range Count
100

90 Of the 136 countries

80 reporting annual coconut
consumption to the
70
United Nations,
approximately 80%
Number of Countries

60

50 consume less than 2 Kg

per year
40

30

20

10

0
Less than .5 Kg Per .5-1 Kg Per Year 1-2 Kg Per Year 2-3 Kg Per Year 3-5 Kg Per Year 5-10 Kg Per Year 10+ Kg Per Year
Year
Coconut consumption has equatorial correlation

The equatorial correlation

with coconut
consumption potentially
CONTRAVENES the
hypothesis as increased
sunshine is associated
with vitamin D synthesis
Equator

Legend
<.25 Kg Little-to-no consumption

.25-2.5 Kg Low consumption

References: 2.5-5 Kg Moderate consumption
1) Nature, “The relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and the severity of COVID-19
disease and its mortality” (September 2, 2021) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-97017-9 >5 Kg Heavy consumption
2) Dermato Endocrinology, “Sunlight and Vitamin D: A global perspective for health” (Jan 1, 2013)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3897598/
Average of median age per Country by coconut
consumption level

The lower median age

potentially
CONTRAVENES the
hypothesis as lower ages
are associated with better
COVID-19 outcomes.

Reference: International Journal of

Environmental Research and Public
Health, “The Age-Related Risk of
Severe Outcomes Due to COVID-19
Infection: A Rapid Review, Meta-
Analysis, and Meta-Regression”
(August 17, 2020)
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/
32824596/
Average of number of hospital beds per thousand

The lower number of

hospital beds per
thousand potentially
CONTRAVENES the
hypothesis as it MAY be
associated with a lower
COVID-19 reporting
capability.

Reference: N/A
Coconut consumption correlated with higher population
density
Higher population density’s
correlation with coconut
consumption potentially
SUPPORTS the hypothesis
as increased population
density is associated with
viral spread.

Reference: Journal of Infection and

Public Health, “Relationship
between population density and
COVID-19 incidence and mortality
estimates: A county-level analysis”
(July 3, 2020)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pm
c/articles/PMC8253654/
Average of percentage of population fully vaccinated by
coconut consumption level
Lower full vaccination
status’s correlation with
coconut consumption
potentially SUPPORTS the
hypothesis as COVID-19
immunizations are
associated with decreased
mortality from the disease.

Reference: The Lancet,

“Effectiveness of mRNA BNT162b2
COVID-19 vaccine up to 6 months
in a large integrated health system
in the USA: a retrospective cohort
study” (October 4, 2021)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS
0140-6736(21)02183-8/fulltext#:~:text=For%20fully%20
vaccinated%20individuals%2C%20effectiveness,%E2%80
%9351)%20after%205%20months
.
Average of percentage of diabetes prevalence by coconut
consumption level
Higher diabetes prevalence
correlation with coconut
consumption potentially
SUPPORTS the hypothesis
as COVID-19 as diabetes is
associated with worse
COVID-19 outcomes.

Reference: Endocrinology and

Metabolism, “Clinical Outcomes of
COVID-19 Patients with Type 2
Diabetes: A Population-Based
Study in Korea” (December 10,
2021)
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/
33297603/
GDP per capita by coconut consumption level

Lower GDP status’s

correlation with coconut
consumption potentially
SUPPORTS the hypothesis
as COVID-19 as higher GDP
per Capita is associated with
better disease outcomes.

Reference: Frontiers in Public

Health, “Associating the Change in
New COVID-19 Cases to GDP per
Capita in 38 European Countries in
the First Wave of the Pandemic”
(Jan 20, 2021)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pm
c/articles/PMC7854531/
Average reported number of COVID19 cases per million

Heavy coconut
consumption is REPORTED
to result in 52.7% lower
spread of COVID-19
compared to little-to-no
consumption.
Average reported number of COVID19 deaths per million

Heavy coconut
consumption is REPORTED
to result in 47.7% lower
mortality from COVID-19
compared to little-to-no
consumption.
Summary of Conflating Factors

Equatorial correlation of coconut consumption - - Potentially contravenes

hypothesis
Average median age lowest in High Coconut Consumption Countries
(HCCC) - + Potentially supports
hypothesis

Average number of hospital beds lowest in HCCC -

Average population density highest in HCCC +
Average COVID-19 fully vaccination status lowest in HCCC +
Average diabetes prevalence highest in HCCC +
GDP per capital lowest in HCCC +
Conclusion

Despite numerous conflating factors, there is enough

circumstantial evidence that monolaurin has a significant,

positive impact in limiting the spread and lethality of the

COVID-19 virus to warrant investment in controlled scientific

study.
Appendix
List of “Little-to-no” coconut consumption (<.25 Kg) countries
List of “Low” coconut consumption (.25-2.5 Kg) countries
List of “Moderate” coconut consumption (2.5-5 Kg) countries
List of “Heavy” coconut consumption (>5 Kg) countries
List of excluded low population (<1 million) countries

Excluded countries’ Heavy Coconut consumption is

REPORTED to result in 63.5% lower spread of COVID-19
and 12.8% lower mortality compared to Little-to-No
Consumption countries.