Reliability of

Structures
(461612)
Course Outline
Course contents The course focuses on structural safety and reliability analysis of
(description) structural elements. Principles of member and system reliability will be
introduced and margins of safety will be discussed. Techniques for
computation of probability of failure will be presented. Code-calibration
and calculation of partial safety factors will also be in the scope of this
course.

Course objectives To understand the meaning of safety margin and probability of failure
To understand the stochastic nature of engineering design
Intended learning The use of reliability principles to calculate reliability index of structures
outcomes The use of reliability techniques for code-calibration.
Be able to gather and calibrate data for reliability assessment of buildings.

Text book and - “Structural Reliability – Analysis and Design” by R. Ranganathan, Jaico
references Publishing, 1st ed.1999
- “Reliability of Structures” by A. Nowak and K. Collins. McGraw-Hill, 1st ed.
2000
Evaluation Policy

• Because this course will be given in a remote e-learning style,

the evaluation will be done through:
• Restricted-Time Exam 10%
• Series of Home works 30%
• Research Projects 30%
• Final exam 30%
Topics To be Covered

Lecture Subject
1-2 Introduction to structural safety and reliability.

Revision of Statistics and Probability. Distribution of random

3-5
variables and of functions of random variables.
5-7 Uncertainty and variation in resistance and loading
Techniques for computing probability of failure and the
8-10
reliability index
11-13 Code-calibration and partial safety factors
14-15 System reliability
Introduction to Reliability Concept
• The safety of a structure is the most important design purpose.
• The safety depends on how much the Resistance “R” is conservatively
far from the Action “S”.
• The resistance depends on the material composition, dimensions and
geometry of structural elements and the way it is constrained!
• The action depends on the loading scenarios and their internal effects
(axial-shear-moment..etc), connectivity and interdependency
(determinancy) of structural elements.
• i.e. The more R >> S, the safer the design is.
• Of course, the Higher “R” means Higher economical demands.
• It becomes more complicated when we know that each of the
parameters affecting R or S is in fact random!!
Introduction to Reliability Concept
• Having Random parameters makes it difficult to assign “Safety Margin”.
• “Safety Margin” is a measure of how much safe a structure is.
• Take an example of a steel rod subjected to tension force.
• Let’s consider the resistance R = A*Fy , A= area of section, Fy = Yield
Strength. Assume the action is the tension “S=T” which comes from a wind
force.
• The design is “safe” if the resistance R > S , i.e. if A*Fy > T.
• The design inequality can be written in two ways:
A*Fy – T > 0 or A*Fy / T > 1
Let’s put some numbers: Assume the average A = 1000 mm2 and average Fy =
250 MPa and average expected tension was 230 kN.
According to the design inequality, and using the average values, the design is
safe!! { Check 1000*250 – 230*103 > 0!! }
Factors of Safety and Stochastic Nature
• Based on the average values, we can even compute how much safe the design
is by computing the “Average” or “Central” Safety Factor
SFc = R / S = 250*1000 / (230*103) = 1.09 > 1.0
• However, we know that the area of the section “ A” and yield strength Fy and
wind forces are all random.
• So, the area can be more or less than 1000mm2. The yield strength can be less
than 250 MPa. The load can be more or less than 230kN.
• Each of these parameters can theoretically (and practically) attain a wide range
of values. These ranges of values are called “Probabilistic/Stochastic” Values.
• The variation of how frequent each value of a given parameter is , is generally
described by a “Probability Density Function” “PDF” , or called “Probability
Mass Function” “PMF”
Stochastic Nature of Parameters
• For example, the parameter Area can have the shown PDF.
• We generally can not know exactly how the shape of the PDF is! . Most of the times:
We assume it!!
• If the PDF of the Area is assumed to be Normal PDF, then according to this PDF, any
value for the AREA is possible {Even the negative!!}, but then with different“ frequency
of occurrence”.

Highest Frequency

Probabilistic Distribution of Area!

Increasing
Frequency Smaller Frequency

Increasing Values
Larger Values
μS = Mean Value of Area
Factors of Safety are Random Variables
• Based on the stochastic nature of each parameters, the Area, Strengths,
Loads, each can have a random value!!
• So , if Areal = 950 mm2 and Fy, real = 245 MPa and Treal = 240 kN, then the
Real Factor of Safety now becomes: SFR = R/S = 245*950/240e3 =
0.97 < 1.0  Fail!
• Therefore, The Factor of Safety for the structures{ i.e. how safe it is}, is
in fact a random variable and can as well be less than 1.0!! {i.e. not safe!
}.
• The set of values used for the design {for example: average values!}
Are called the “Design Point”. They are in fact a set of many possible
random values.
• In shorts: We cannot have a fixed value for a safety factor!!
Probability of Failure as a Design Concept
• For these reasons, instead of defining a fixed safety factor, people
started talking about “Probability of Failure- P.o.F” as a measure of
safety!!.
• The Probability of Failure is related to the probability of having a factor of
safety less than 1.0 for a given structure (or R<S)
• A reliable system is the system whose probability of failure is below
certain commonly agreed value! ( e.g. P.o.F < 0.0001 )
• The acceptable “commonly agreed” probability of failure depends on the
type of system, how dangerous the failure is, its consequences, and how
confident we are in computing the failure and resistance capacities.
Probability of Failure
• The Probability of Failure “P.o.F” is defined as the probability of
having the event where R < S .
The area of Failure
where R < S
Probabilistic
Probabilistic
Distribution of “R”
Distribution of “S”
Frequency

Increasing Values

μS = Mean Value of “S” ”μR = Mean Value of “R

S=R

• Reliable Design is the design that offsets R from S in as much as the

probability of having R < S is below acceptable agreed value.
Reliability vs Deterministic Design
• A Reliability-Based Design is the design that uses the statistics and
probabilistic distributions ( or information ) of the resistance and action
and their parameters to achieve an acceptable probability of failure
“P.o.F”.
• A Deterministic Design is the design that uses fixed values {Could be
average values}, and may (or maynot) reflect the factor(s) of safety in
terms of constant coefficients.
• A best example on deterministic design are
• The Allowable Stress Design Method:
R/Ω > S
• The Ultimate Method (Originally derived from Plastic Design of steel frames)
R>ΩS
• And sometimes: The LRFD method ( before 1970s)
ΦR > γ S
Code - Calibration
• Before the 1970s, most factors of safety came from experience and judgement
on severity and consequences of failure.
• After the 1970s, people started using the science of Probability and Statistics to
derive the safety factors such that a certain probability of failure is satisfied.
• Code-Calibration Process is The process of deriving the factors of safety
based on reliability analysis {i.e. based on achieving certain P.o.F }
• For example: the AISC-360 (or ASCE-07) has calibrated their LRFD design
equation for bending moment capacity in steel frames for live and dead loads
using the following factors
0.9 Mn > 1.2 MD + 1.6 ML
• Generally, the “Partial Safety Factors” { i.e. the 0.9, 1.2, 1.6} would change if
the randomness of the parameters change {Like Loads, Moment capacity or its
dependencies}, or the agreed probability of failure change.
Safety Levels of Design Codes
• Design codes provide the minimum requirements for safety. Based on how the
safety level is achieved in design codes, we can categorize the design codes into
4 levels:
• Level I codes, where only fixed deterministic values are used for design and
safety is reflected using central safety factors {i.e. using verage values}. This was
common before 1960-1970s.
• Level II codes, where the partial safety factors are calibrated using basic
statistical information about design parameters {Generally Average Values and
Standard Deviations}. These represent most current design codes (AISC/ACI/IBC
Eurocode and other LRFD codes)
• Level III codes, where the probability of failure is explicitly calculated as design
parameter and the full PDF distributions of random variables are used in design.
These codes are still in research phase.
• Level IV codes, where coupling between cost/performance and probability of
failure is used for design of structures.
 Common Uses of Reliability Analysis
• Assessment of cases with high physical variability
• Example: Assessment of old or ancient buildings:
• Most old buildings have high random design parameters: High variation in thicknesses, material composition, etc.
• A single model containing well-defined properties (i.e. deterministic) is not useful.
• We need a model that accepts parameters as random variables, (i.e. stochastic). Such model is used for reliability checks of the structure

• Example: Soil-Structure Interaction SSI :

• Soil has high physical variability. The model that accounts for this must be stochastic

• Assessment of cases with high temporal variability

• Example: Earthquake loading ad response, Fluid Forces ( wind or seawater tides! )
• The EQ load is not deterministic, it changes within a single EQ and for every new EQ!
• The response of a structure to EQ is also random vibration!!
• There must be a stochastic method to represent the EQ load, and the response as well
• Fatigue failure is one of the most stochastic-dependent failure due to fluctuations of load with time

•Calibration of Design Codes

• Most safety factors in design equations depend on the environment where these equations will be used.
• Example: Variability of concrete properties in USA is quite different (mostly less) than its variability in Palestine. Thus we expect the factors of safety
in Palestine to be higher for RC structures!
• Example: Loading scenarios can be different than assumed in design codes, e.g. The Extraordinary Live Load! In USA they assume a change in live-
load renovation load occurs every 5 years!! In Palestine this may not be true!