Peak Oil: Implications for

Sustainable Natural Resources

Management
David L. Trauger
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
J. Edward Gates
University of Maryland Center for Environmental
Science

USDA Forest Service Sustainable Operations

Summit
November 18-20, 2008
 Introduction
 Contemporary natural resources management
is highly dependent on cheap, abundant
energy
 A critical evaluation of implications of Peak Oil
is needed in order to anticipate and plan for a
range of “futures”
 We will face great challenges as well as
opportunities in different biogeographic
regions as we adjust to new realities during
the coming decades
Global Peak Oil
 Energy governs how we do our jobs
– Powering facilities, computers, generators,
or motor vehicles
– Consuming food energy hiking to the next
observation or sampling point
– Manufacturing some useful field or
laboratory device or tool

 Much of what we describe here will

be influenced by future economic
conditions and whether we can avoid
collapse
 Management Implications
of Peak Oil

 Impacts on Budgets

 Impacts on Operations

 Impacts on Maintenance

 Impacts on Personnel
 Impacts on Budgets
 Expensive, increasingly scarce oil
will not only affect our ability to drive
our cars and trucks, but…

 Costs of everything will go up

dramatically
– Effects will ripple throughout our national economy
– Significantly impact institutional and agency
budgets
 Major Budgetary Implications
 Greater justification of expenditures and a
sharper focus on setting program priorities

 Mandated high efficiency in both

operations and equipment

 Curtailment or elimination of obsolete or

inefficient programs or operations

 Sharing of resources and responsibilities

among personnel and different agencies
 Impacts on Operations
 Operations may be focused within
autonomous administrative regions
- Movement of personnel around the
country or state or province may be too costly

 Greater reliance on electronic

communications using renewable
energy sources
- Brownouts and blackouts may affect the
electrical grid’s dependability
Forests, Refuges, Parks, and
other Public Lands
 Lack of disposable income may mean
fewer visitations by the public
– Declines in ecotourism leading to economic
nonviability

 Pressure to privatize or open public lands

for needed revenues to operate
– Directly for income to support operations
– Indirectly for metals, minerals, hydrocarbons,
geothermal, wood, biomass, etc.
 Species Management
 Recreational hunting, fishing, and camping likely
will decline
– Increase in poaching and timber theft for subsistence

 Rare, threatened, and endangered species

– Increase in extirpation and extinction

 Greater emphasis on law enforcement

 Exotic and invasive species

– Control may be too expensive

 Habitat and landscape restoration

– Let’s work with nature!
 Inventories, Monitoring, and
Research
 Research activities
– Greatly reduced capability
– Focus on rigorous and integrated adaptive
resource management

 Activities dependent on extensive use of

manned, motorized craft
– Severely compromised, e.g. Routine patrols,
Fire fighting, Breeding Waterfowl Surveys,
Big Game Surveys
 Surveys using volunteers
– Breeding Bird Survey, etc., may become
difficult to maintain

 Remotely accessed or automated

monitoring systems
– Expansion of their application
– Role in law enforcement
 Travel
 Increased costs will mean that there
will be even fewer incentives to travel
long distances to meetings,
particularly via jet planes
– International
– National
– Regional
– State
 Impacts on Maintenance
 Reduction of many types of
maintenance and repair
– Road maintenance and other access points
– Non-essential infrastructure, e.g., visitor
services

 Recovery from catastrophic events

will be problematic
– Wind storms, wild fires, tornadoes, floods,
hurricanes, etc.
 Maintaining levees, dikes, and other
impoundments will be expensive
- Especially in coastal areas where sea
level rise is predicted

 Retrofit, Repair, and Recycling will

be new watchwords
 Impacts on Personnel
 Adjustment in types of positions
– Less centralization or hierarchical organization
– Greater decision-making autonomy by regional or
local managers
– Flexibility and adaptability in the workplace with
emphasis on re-training and less specialization

 Fewer researchers and more personnel

involved with law enforcement
 Fewer volunteers
 More “public works” programs
– Similar to old Civilian Conservation Corps
– But, will governments have the revenues?
 Sustainable approaches will be an
overriding goal

 Demand for personnel with particular

skills
– Law enforcement
– Adaptive resource management
– Remote sensing and GIS
– Information technology and electronic
communication
– Equipment maintenance and repair
– Care of livestock, i.e., pack animals and horses!
 Universities — declining budgets, declining
student enrollments, declining research
dollars, and downsizing faculty
– Fewer students going into forestry, wildlife, fisheries, and
other conservation fields due to costs and lack of jobs
– Emphasis on training fewer post-graduates
– Major universities will undergo contraction in many disciplines
– Smaller colleges and universities nearer to home may
weather the storm better

 Approaches to education and training will

change and evolve
– Alternatives to attending university
» Distance learning and training technologies, e.g., CDs, DVDs,
web, interactive video network
» Scattered faculty offer a coherent program of specialized training
to a wider audience
 Opportunities
 Will we be able to react quickly enough?
 Duplication and waste will be less tolerated
due to high costs and focus on
sustainability
 Decision making will be streamlined and
entrusted to those on the “front lines”
– Innovative, logical, multi-taskes, risk takers
– Initiative and success rewarded

 Employees will be challenged by a dynamic

work environment
– Novel situations and conditions
– Need for adaptability and innovation
 Can We be Proactive?
 Most budget adjustments and expenditures
must be made early while energy is still
relatively cheap and abundant and before
other costs rise…the future is NOW!

 However, could be a difficult task given flat

or declining budgets and inflationary
pressures

 Doing more with less will surely take on new

meaning for all
 Efficiency and Conservation
 History shows that savings due to
increased fuel-efficiency can easily be
wiped out by “increased population
(number of drivers) and energy use
(travel)”
 Not a strategy to enable “business as
usual,” but one to effect a net reduction in
oil consumption
 Must be coupled with the eventual
elimination of greenhouse gas emissions
from the burning of fossil fuels
Solar and Wind
 Retrofitting
existing facilities
and operating field
equipment
– Example: Eastern
Neck National
Wildlife Refuge on
Maryland’s upper
Eastern Shore
 Prediction:Budget pressures will force consolidation of
natural resources agencies across the U.S. Government
in the next 5 years.

 Flash:
Creation of a Earth Systems Science Agency
proposed by merging National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Geological
Survey.

 Question: Can the USDA Forest Service, U. S. Fish and

Wildlife Service, Bureau of Land Management, and
National Park Service be far behind? Hummm… Natural
Resources Management Agency has a certain ring to it!
 Conclusions
 Peak Oil will force drastic changes in natural
resource management programs and
priorities
 Major challenge to protect and manage the
integrity of our forests and other biotic
systems
 Greater emphasis on REAL sustainable
resource management strategies
 Whether we leave a natural heritage for our
descendents and future generations will
depend on the pathway we take now!