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S2 Hypothesis Testing
S2 Hypothesis Testing
S2 Hypothesis Testing
HYPOTHESIS
TESTING
The process for setting up a hypothesis test:
State your NULL e.g. Ho: p = 0.2 or H0 : λ = 4
HYPOTHESIS, H0
State your ALTERNATE e.g. H1: p > 0.2 or H1 : λ ≠ 4
HYPOTHESIS, H1
State the significance e.g. S.L. = 5% (one or two tailed)
level
State the statistical model e.g. X ~ B(10, 0.2) or X ~ Po(4)
Test your statistic against
e.g. P(X > 5)
the significance level
State your conclusion e.g. Whether you accept H0 or not
in context and what this means in context
Michelle said she was telepathic. She constructed a simple experiment
to confirm this. She placed four different coloured discs in a bag,
selected one, ensuring her friend could not see it, concentrated on the
colour and then asked her friend to guess the colour. She repeated the
process 20 times and her friend managed to guess correctly 9 times.
Michelle felt this result indicated that she was telepathic. Would you
agree? Test her claim at the 5% significance level.
H0 : p = 0.25
X ~ B(20, 0.25)
X ~ B(20, 0.25)
X ~ B(20, 0.25)
H0 : λ = 7.5
5% 5%
5
CRITICAL REGION
The region where H0 would be rejected
X ~ B(20, 0.25) S.L. : 5% each side
H0 : p = 0.25 H1 : p ≠ 0.25
5% 5%
5
a b
P(X ≤ a) = 0.05 Critical P(X ≥ b) = 0.05
X ≤ 1 and X ≥ 9
P(X ≤ 1) = 0.0243 Region P(X ≤ b-1) = 0.95
P(X ≤ 7) = 0.8982
P(X ≤ 2) = 0.0913
P(X ≤ 8) = 0.9591
2.5%
Critical Region
2.5%
9
Y ≤ 3 and Y ≥ 15
a b
P(Y ≤ a) = 0.025 P(Y ≥ b) = 0.025
P(Y ≤ 3) = 0.0212 P(Y ≤ b-1) = 0.975
P(Y ≤ 14) = 0.9585
P(Y ≤ 4) = 0.0550 P(Y ≤ 15) = 0.9780
(c) Write down the significance level of this test.
2.5%
Critical Region
2.5%
9
X ≤ 3 and X ≥ 15
a b
P(Y ≤ a) = 0.025 P(Y ≥ b) = 0.025
P(Y ≤ 3) = 0.0212 P(Y ≤ b-1) = 0.975
P(Y ≤ 14) = 0.9585
P(Y ≤ 4) = 0.0550 P(Y ≤ 15) = 0.9780
SIGNIFICANCE
= 0.0212 + (1 – 0.9780) = 0.0432 = 4.32%
LEVEL
A standard treatment for a drug has a probability of success of 0.3.
A doctor has done some research and has modified the drug and
tested it on 20 patients. He wants to see whether the modified drug
has changed the success rate.
(a) Find the critical region where the significance level needs to be as
close to 5% as possible.
(b) What is the significance level?
(c) 9 patients had success with the modified drug. At the 5% level of
significance, does this give evidence that the drug has improved the
success rate?
(d) On a larger trial using 500 patients, 162 patients had success
with the modified drug. Test at the 2.5% significance level as to
whether there evidence to suggest the drug has improved the success
rate?
A standard treatment for a drug has a probability of success of 0.3.
A doctor has done some research and has modified the drug and
tested it on 20 patients. He wants to see whether the modified drug
has changed the success rate.
(a) Find the critical region where the significance level needs to be as
close to 5% as possible.
X ~ B(20, 0.3) H0 : p = 0.3 H1 : p ≠ 0.3 S.L.: 2.5% each side