Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables

• The probability distribution for a discrete

random variable x resembles the relative
frequency distributions we constructed in
Chapter 1. It is a graph, table or formula that
gives the possible values of x and the
probability p(x) associated with each value.

We must have
0  p ( x)  1 and  p ( x)  1
 Example
• Toss a fair coin three times and
define x = number of heads.
x
HHH
HHH x p(x)
3
1/8 P(x
P(x==0)
0)== 1/8
1/8 0 1/8
HHT
HHT 2
1/8
2
P(x
P(x==1)
1)== 3/8
3/8 1 3/8
1/8
HTH
HTH 2
P(x
P(x==2)
2)== 3/8
3/8 2 3/8
1/8
THH
THH 1 P(x
P(x==3)
3)== 1/8
1/8 3 1/8
1/8
1
HTT 1/8
HTT 1
1/8 Probability
ProbabilityHistogram
Histogram
0 for
THT
THT 1/8 forxx

TTH
TTH

TTT
TTT
 Probability Distributions
• Probability distributions can be used to describe
the population, just as we described samples in
Chapter 1.
– Shape: Symmetric, skewed, mound-shaped…
– Outliers: unusual or unlikely measurements
– Center and spread: mean and standard
deviation. A population mean is called m and a
population standard deviation is called s.
 The Mean
and Standard Deviation

• Let x be a discrete random variable with

probability distribution p(x). Then the mean,
variance and standard deviation of x are given
as

Mean :    xp ( x)
Variance :   ( x   ) p ( x)
2 2

Standard deviation :    2
 Example
• Toss a fair coin 3 times and
record x the number of heads.
x p(x) xp(x) (x-m)2p(x) 12
0 1/8 0 (-1.5)2(1/8)    xp ( x )   1.5
8
1 3/8 3/8 (-0.5)2(3/8)
2 3/8 6/8 (0.5)2(3/8)
3 1/8 3/8 (1.5)2(1/8)   ( x   ) p( x)
2 2



2
. 
28125
.  
09375
.
0937
.
28
.
7

.
75
.
688
 Example
• The probability distribution for x the
number of heads in tossing 3 fair coins.

Symmetric; mound-
• Shape? shaped

• Outliers? None

• Center? m = 1.5

• Spread? s = .688

m
 Introduction
• Discrete random variables take on only a finite
or countably number of values.
• Three discrete probability distributions serve
as models for a large number of practical
applications:


The
Thebinomial
binomialrandom
randomvariable
variable

The
ThePoisson
Poissonrandom
randomvariable
variable

The
Thehypergeometric
hypergeometricrandom
randomvariable
variable
 The Binomial Random Variable
• The coin-tossing experiment is a
simple example of a binomial random
variable. Toss a fair coin n = 3 times
and record x = number of heads.

x p(x)
0 1/8
1 3/8
2 3/8
3 1/8
 The Binomial Random Variable
• Many situations in real life resemble the coin
toss, but the coin is not necessarily fair, so that
P(H)  1/2.
• Example: A geneticist samples 10
people and counts the number who
have a gene linked to Alzheimer’s
disease.
• Coin: Person • Number of n = 10
• Head: Has gene tosses: P(has gene) =
• Tail: Doesn’t have gene • P(H): proportion in the
population who have
the gene.
 The Binomial Experiment
1. The experiment consists of n identical trials.
2. Each trial results in one of two outcomes, success (S)
or failure (F).
3. The probability of success on a single trial is p and
remains constant from trial to trial. The probability of
failure is q = 1 – p.
4. The trials are independent.
5. We are interested in x, the number of successes in n
trials.
 Binomial or Not?
• Very few real life applications
satisfy these requirements exactly.
• Select two people from the U.S.
population, and suppose that 15% of
the population has the Alzheimer’s
gene.
• For the first person, p = P(gene) = .15
• For the second person, p  P(gene) = .15,
even though one person has been
removed from the population.
The Binomial Probability Distribution

• For a binomial experiment with n trials and

probability p of success on a given trial, the
probability of k successes in n trials is
n k n! k nk
P( x  k )  C p q
n
k
k
 p q for k  0,1,2,...n.
k!( n  k )!
n!
Recall C  n
k
k!( n  k )!
with n! n( n  1)(n  2)...(2)1 and 0! 1.
The Mean and Standard Deviation
• For a binomial experiment with n trials and
probability p of success on a given trial, the
measures of center and spread are:

Mean :   np
Variance:   npq
2

Standarddeviation:   npq
 Applet
Example
A marksman hits a target 80% of the
time. He fires five shots at the target. What is
the probability that exactly 3 shots hit the
target?
n= 5 success = hit p= .8 x= # of hits

5!
P ( x  3)  C p q n
3
3 n 3
 (.8)3 (.2)53
3!2!

 10(.8)3 (.2) 2  .2048

 Applet
Example

What is the probability that more than 3 shots

hit the target?

P ( x  3)  C45 p 4 q 54  C55 p 5 q 55

5! 5!
 (. 8 ) (. 2 ) 
4 1
(. 8 ) 5 (. 2 ) 0
4!1! 5!0!

 5(.8) 4 (.2)  (.8)5  .7373

 Cumulative Probability
Tables
You can use the cumulative probability tables
to find probabilities for selected binomial
distributions.

Find
Find the
the table
table for
for the
the correct
correct value
value of
of n.
n.

Find
Find the
the column
column for
for the
the correct
correct value
value of
of p.
p.

The
The row
row marked
marked “k”“k” gives
gives the
the cumulative
cumulative
probability, P(x  k)
probability, P(x k) == P(x
P(x == 0)
0) +…+
+…+ P(x
P(x == k)
k)
 Applet
Example
k p = .80
0 .000 What is the probability that exactly 3
1 .007 shots hit the target?
2 .058
3 .263
4 .672 P(x
P(x == 3) P(x  3)
3) == P(x P(x  2)
3) –– P(x 2)
5 1.000 == .263
.263 -- .058
.058
== .205
.205 Check from formula: P(x = 3)
= .2048
 Applet
Example
k p = .80
0 .000
What is the probability that more
1 .007
than 3 shots hit the target?
2 .058
3 .263
4 .672 P(x
P(x >> 3) P(x  3)
3) == 11 -- P(x 3)
5 1.000 == 11 -- .263
.263 == .737
.737
Check from formula: P(x > 3)
= .7373
 Example
• Here is the probability distribution
for x = number of hits. What are
the mean and standard deviation
for x?
Mean :   np  5(.8)  4

Standarddeviation:   npq

 5(.8)(.2)  .89

m
 Applet
Example
• Would it be unusual to find that
none of the shots hit the target?
  4;   .89

• The value x = 0 lies

x 04
z   4.49
 .89
• more than 4 standard
deviations below the
mean. Very unusual.
m
 The Poisson Random Variable
• The Poisson random variable x is a model for data
that represent the number of occurrences of a
specified event in a given unit of time or space.

• Examples:
• The number of calls received by a
switchboard during a given period of time.
• The number of machine breakdowns in a day
• The number of traffic accidents at a given
intersection during a given time period.
 The Poisson Probability
Distribution
• x is the number of events that occur in a period of
time or space during which an average of m such
events can be expected to occur. The probability
of k occurrences of this event is
e
k
P
(x)
k
For
k
!
Forvalues
valuesofofkk==0,0,1,1,2,2,……The
Themean
meanand
andstandard
standard
deviation
deviationofofthe
thePoisson
Poissonrandomrandomvariable
variableare
are
Mean:mm
Mean:
Standard
Standarddeviation:
deviation:

 
 Example
The average number of traffic accidents on a
certain section of highway is two per week.
Find the probability of exactly one accident
during a one-week period.
k  1 2
 e 2 e 2
P( x  1)    2e  . 2707
k! 1!
 Cumulative Probability
Tables
You can use the cumulative probability tables
to find probabilities for selected Poisson
distributions.


Find
Find the
the column
column for for the
the correct
correct value
value ofof mm..

The
The row
row marked
marked “k” “k” gives
gives the
the cumulative
cumulative
probability, P(x  k)
probability, P(x k) == P(x
P(x == 0)
0) +…+
+…+ P(x
P(x == k)
k)
 Example
k m=2 What is the probability that there is
0 .135 exactly 1 accident?
1 .406
2 .677
3 .857
4 .947 P(x
P(x == 1) P(x  1)
1) == P(x P(x  0)
1) –– P(x 0)
5 .983 == .406
.406 -- .135
.135
6 .995 == .271
.271 Check from formula: P(x = 1)
7 .999 = .2707

8 1.000
 Example
k m=2 What is the probability that 8 or
0 .135 more accidents happen?
1 .406
2 .677
P(x  8)
P(x 8) == 11 -- P(x
P(x << 8)
8)
3 .857 P(x  7)
== 11 –– P(x 7)
4 .947
== 11 -- .999
.999 == .001
.001
5 .983 This
Thiswould
wouldbe
bevery
veryunusual
unusual(small
(smallprobability)
probability)since
sincexx==88
lies
6 .995 lies

7 .999 z
x 
  
8  2
4.24
standard above
deviations
standard deviations 1.414
above the mean.
the mean.
8 1.000
 m
m
The Hypergeometric Probability m
m
m
m

m
Distribution
• The “M&M® problems” from Chapter 4 are
modeled by the hypergeometric distribution.
• A bowl contains M red candies and N-M blue
candies. Select n candies from the bowl and
record x the number of red candies selected.
Define a “red M&M®” to be a “success”.
The probability of exactly k successes in n trials is

MM N
CC
P
(x)
k k n
N
k
C n
 m
m
m m
m
The Mean and Variance m
m

The mean and variance of the hypergeometric

random variable x resemble the mean and
variance of the binomial random variable:
M 
Mean :   n 
N
 M  N  M  N  n 
Variance :   n 
2
 
 N  N  N  1 
 Example
A package of 8 AA batteries contains 2
batteries that are defective. A student
randomly selects four batteries and replaces
the batteries in his calculator. What is the
probability that all four batteries work?
6 2
C C
Success = working battery
P ( x  4)  4
8
0
N=8 C4
M=6
n=4 6(5) / 2(1) 15
 
8(7)(6)(5) / 4(3)(2)(1) 70