DI³

Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

Strategic Workforce Planning

‘A core process of human resource
management’

Paul
Turner
 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight
Professor Paul
Turner

Paul Turner has held Professorial positions at Universities in Birmingham, Nottingham and Cambridge.

Paul Turner’s previous positions have included President of Europe, Middle East and Africa, Employee Care for the
Convergys Corporation of Cincinnati, (to 2005) Group HR Business Director for Lloyds TSB, (to 2003) Vice President of the
CIPD, (to 2001) a Director of BT, a Non-Executive Director of Blessing White and OPI and a General Manager for Plessey
in both the UK and Asia Pacific.

Paul was Chair of the European Human Asset Conferences from 2009 to 2012 and Chair of the European Talent for
Tomorrow Conferences. He was a judge on the European HR Excellence Awards, the CIPD People Management Awards
and a consultant on the CIPD research into Workforce Planning (2010) and Talent Management (2007).

Paul has spoken at business conferences around the world and is the author or co author of Meaning at Work- Employee
Engagement in Europe (2012),Talent Management in Europe (2012), Workforce Planning (2010), The Admirable
Company (2008), Talent (2007), Organisational Communication (2003) and HR Forecasting and Planning (2002). He has
written articles for business journals and the International Press.

Paul has a first degree from the University of East Anglia, a Ph.D from the University of Sheffield and is a Companion of
the CIPD.

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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
DI³
Insight
‘From manpower planning to capacity planning
why we need workforce planning.’

Information Insight
2000-2005 2013+
•How will the
workforce
plan
contribute to
strategy
•What kind
Data Intelligence of people do
we need to
deliver
1960-2000 2005-2013 competitive
advantage
•Should we
buy or build?

DI³-from data to insight

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Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

Insight

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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

Insight
An accurate and
deep intuitive
understanding
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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

Data Information Intelligence Insight

Strategic Workforce Planning has evolved-
our organisations need more than data. They
need insight about their people to be
competitive in world markets. This is
because people are often the only source of
competitive advantage

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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

Data Information Intelligence Insight

HR Professionals provide insight through being strategic

positioners, capability builders, change champions,
innovators and integrators. We do this on the back of
an evidence based approach to people management.
SWP helps us to look for connections and solutions.

What does this mean in practice?

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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight
Data Information Intelligence
Insight
Strategic workforce planning allows us to move from data to
statistics to analytics and then add an extra ingredient

People
Statistics
HR Planning
Collecting data Analysis
HR activity
of core Linking human capital investment
to business results
Operational planning- skill based HR Analytics
routing etc. Human Capital Analytics Predictive modelling
HR Forecasting Gap analysis ROI and performance profiling
Strategic Workforce Planning

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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

Data Information Intelligence

Insight Today we will look at three

important questions: 1.What is strategic
2. How does it contribute toworkforce planning
the organisation’s
success
3. What is the role of HR professionals in
SWP?

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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

Strategic Workforce Planning

Interpretations and
definitions

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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight
And so consistent definitions were developed

CIPD definition- ‘A core process of human resource management that is

shaped by the organisational strategy and ensures the right number of
people with the right skills, in the right place at the right time to deliver
short- and long-term organisation objectives.’

SHRM working definition- ‘An ongoing process to identify the

workforce needs for the future. Identification of the gap between
demand and supply for staff – workforce numbers, job roles and skills
– and the resultant degree of business risk. A critical part of corporate
planning and a driver for high impact HR strategy. A PLAN to inform
business decision-making (action and accountability)’

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Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

Why should we bother to do

Strategic Workforce
Planning?

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Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight
Objectives of Strategic Workforce Planning- 1
•To make sure we have the right people in the
right place at the right time with the right skills;
predicting
future talent demands
•To ensure that the demand for people numbers,
knowledge, skills, attitudes, and values are matched
with the supply of these attributes
• To align and integrate people strategies with
organisational strategies
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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence Objectives of Strategic Workforce Planning-

Insight
2

•To ensure that an organisation takes account of

people as contributors to its success by recognising
their unique contribution to strategic direction and
performance- workforce planning is a business issue
•To provide a process by which people
considerations are raised early in the strategy-
setting debate and to ensure that business-based
plans are put in place for
the people outcomes of this debate
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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

But there are other considerations in

the post recession environment

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Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

From data to insight- important

trends in Strategic Workforce
Planning
1. Strategic and flexible
2. The Rise of Big Data
3. Predictive Modelling
4. The Generational
Mix
5. Talent Shortages
6. Organisation design
7. Business Strategy

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Data
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Intelligence
Insight
1. Strategic and flexible
SWP is growing in importance. But
why bother to plan when the world is
so unpredictable?
• A compelling need to be able to shape the organization to deal with
both expected and unexpected events

• The need to control costs without damaging competitiveness

• The need to up-skill organizations

• The growing influence of the HR function

Source: Paul Turner, ‘From manpower planning to capacity building – why we need workforce planning’ CIPD 2010

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 DI³
Data
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Intelligence
2. The Rise of Big Data
Insight

Why all of the attention on Big Data?

A recent CIPD report noted that Big data could help to:

•Find out who’s likely to leave and how to keep them

•Understand why your staff are underperforming
•Know where employees should be and why
•Identify whether remote working is effective
•Show the holes in your recruitment process

There was an information revolution taking place in which patterns

and insights is something for all business functions- including HR

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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
2. The Rise of Big Data- but what is it and why is it ‘big?’
Insight

Big data spans four dimensions: Volume, Velocity, Variety, and

Veracity.

There are five broad ways in which using big data can create value:

•big data can unlock significant value by making information transparent and usable

•as organizations create and store more transactional data in digital form, they can collect
more accurate and detailed performance information

•big data allows ever-narrower segmentation of customers and therefore much more
precisely tailored products or services

•sophisticated analytics can substantially improve decision-making

•Big data can be used to improve the development of the next generation of products and
services.

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Data
Information

Intelligence
2. The Rise of Big Data (continued)
Insight

Big Data’s greatest HR value may well be as a predictive tool.

•Analyzing the skills and attributes of high performers, Big Data allows organizations to
build a template for future hires. HR and Leaders can learn what to look for with
incredible precision.

•Big Data is democratic, supporting a meritocracy and enabling companies to make

smarter decisions; Google has an entire HR division devoted to “people analytics” which
measures qualities such as social skills, flexibility, emotional intelligence, initiative,
attitude (negative or positive or AKA “good fit” vs “bad fit”), and perseverance.

•Big Data is a great people detective. It’s unbiased and discovers talent. The right
algorithms can pinpoint hidden potential by harvesting and then filtering reams of
information to deliver a star in the making.

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 DI³
Data
Information
3. The Growth of Predictive Modelling
Intelligence
Insight

Four levels of HR analytical capability:

Level 1 is producing ad hoc metrics and reports that tell

“what happened.”

Level 2. Descriptive benchmarking and dashboards, which

get at “what happened, and how do we compare with
others on a defined set of metrics?”

Level 3. Advanced survey analytics, which is about “why did

it happen, and how/where can we improve?”

Level 4 is creating predictive solutions, or “what is likely to

happen, and how can we be better prepared?”

In a 2012 study of 383 organisation 12% said they had

reached Level 3.

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 DI³ Baby boomers
Data •Born 1945 - 1964
Information •Shaped by: less trust in Demographics and
government
Intelligence
workforce
Insight planning
Generation X
•Born 1965 - 1980
Generation Alpha •Shaped by: Internet,
• Born 2010-2024 diversity, unemployment,
• Largest generation due parental divorce rates
to the birth spike
• Most formally educated
• Even more tech savvy
than Generation Z
4. The
Generationa
l
Mix Generation Y
•Born after 1980
•Shaped by: information
Generation Z overflow, overzealous parents,
• Born 1995-2009 globalisation
• Tech savvy
• Strong work ethic
 DI³ 5. Talent shortages create real challenges for organisations
Data
Information in 2013- impact on the workforce plan?
Intelligence
Insight

The coming talent shortage took centre stage at the annual WEF conference in Davos (2011) and the
issue also has quickly become a priority among federal governments, federal agencies,
nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), educational institutions, and community-based organizations
(CBOs) as well as corporations.

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 DI³ 5. Talent shortages create real challenges for organisations-
Data
Information Hay Group Study
Intelligence
Insight

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 DI³
Data
Information
6. Organisation design- from Hierarchy to
Network- how does this impact on the
Intelligence
Insight
workforce plan?

From
Hierarchy to
Network

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Data
Information

Intelligence
7. Business Strategy- approach to competitive
Insight advantage- how can workforce planning contribute
to
both viewpoints?

Source Huselid, SHRM,

2009

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Intelligence
Insight

‘HR needs to move beyond the present and the purely

informational into the predictive and insightful. This is the
essence of a genuine paradigm shift in the way HR functions
create value and how they are beginning to view their role
in collecting, connecting and sharing data that will
influence decisions about the future direction of the
business. ‘ KPMG

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 DI³
Data
Information
Insight, HR professionals and strategic workforce
Intelligence
planning Next Generation HR
Insight

Ulrich 1997 Ulrich 2013

Process

Capability Strategic
builder positioner
Strategic Administrative
Partner expert

Strategy Operations HR innovator

Change
and
champion
integrator
Employee
Change Agent
Champion
Technology
proponent

People
Credible Activist

HR has a critical role in providing insight

to enhance the organisation’s competitive position and
capability 28
 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Next Generation HR-But what do we mean by
Insight
insight?
CIPD 2010

What are our

organisational and people
strengths? Organisational
Insight

What is the context within Context Insight

which our business is
operating and how does
this affect our people
strategy?

Business Insight
What is the nature of our
company’s competitive
advantage? What is the
role of our people in
delivering this?
 DI³
Data
Information
Insight, HR professionals in strategic workforce
Intelligence
planning Putting the 3 perspectives together reveals a
Insight powerful new image

Strategic Administrative
Partner expert Capability Strategic
builder positioner

HR innovator Change
Employee and integrator champion
Change Agent
Champion

Technology
proponent
Organisational
Insight

Context Insight

Business Insight

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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

By adding insight to HR analytics we are

able to address the fundamentals of
people strategy and management. The
Strategic Workforce Plan is
fundamental to achieving competitive
advantage through people

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Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

What are the key stages in

Strategic Workforce
Planning?

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 DI³
Data
Information A standard workforce planning
Intelligence
process
Insight

Market Analysis
Financial Analysis
Business Objectives Business Strategy
Environmental Scan
(people and resources)

Forecast Demand People Strategy to

Forecast Supply achieve SWP
Strategic Workforce
Recruitment and retention
Plan Scenario Planning Gap
Leadership, Talent
Analysis Reward and Engagement

Implementation and
Measures of effectiveness Strategic Review and
operationalising of the
Feedback to the Board
strategic workforce plan

Source, Paul Turner

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Data
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Intelligence
Insight

Gap Analysis

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 DI³
Data
Information A standard workforce planning process –gap
Intelligence
analysis
Insight

There is a shortfall in supply of people

Gap Analysis needed to deliver the business strategy

Our people strategy therefore needs to

There are gaps in: Leadership and
managerial roles
Technical Skills Shortages in some
geographies
allocate resources to:
Talent management Technical
recruitment and training
Employer branding in new geographical
areas
Workforce analytics

Source, Paul Turner, 2002

 DI³
Data
Information A standard workforce planning process –gap
Intelligence
analysis
Insight

headcount

7000
6000 demand
Turnover
5000 Retirements gap
Skills change
New business

4000
3000 supply
2000
1000
year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
 DI³
Data
Information A standard workforce planning process –filling the
Intelligence
gap
Insight

headcount

7000
6000 demand gap
Recruitment

5000
Training
4000
Reward
3000 supply
2000
1000
year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

Scenario Planning
possible future events that might affect
the organisation, and the development of
alternative actions and plans to prepare

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 DI³
Data
Information A standard workforce planning process- scenario
Intelligence
planning Scenario 2:
1. The external labour market fails to
Insight
supply enough people with the right
skills
to fulfil projected headcount
2. Costs of labour exceed initial forecast
Business 3. Shortfall in leadership skills
4. Failure to engage workforce to new
Scenario Planning strategy strategy
What are the Strategic Workforce
Planning implications?

External Strategic
Environmental Workforc
Analysis e Plan

Scenario 1:
1. Our business achieves its
target
2. Exceeds it by 20%
3. Exceeds it by 50%
4. Falls short of its objectives
What are the Strategic Workforce Planning
implications?
 DI³
Data
Information A standard workforce planning process- scenario
Intelligence
planning
Insight

We test some scenarios and look for the

implications on people management
Scenario Planning (McKinsey advocate at least four
scenarios)

What if:
What are the options:
Our business achieves its target
Have a flexible workforce with new
Exceeds it by 20% Exceeds it by 50%
kinds of contract
Falls short of its objectives
Have a supply of subcontractors Over
recruit and redeploy

Source, Paul Turner

 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

What can organisations do to make sure

they have good workforce
information?

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 DI³
Data
Information
Information used in strategic workforce
Intelligence
Insight planning

Source CIPD 2010

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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

What can organisations do to make sure

they convert information to
intelligence?

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 DI³ Example of Business insights and results from workforce
Data
Information planning
Intelligence Business Insights Results
Insight
Workforce 1.Resource Needs (Current & Avoid workforce
Forecasted) capacity shortfalls
Planning
2.Workforce Related Actions

Acquisition Reduce cost of

1.Effectiveness of Recruiting sourcing workforce
& Movement
Efforts
2.Workforce Migration
Workforce Creation of effective
Performance 1.Effective Use of Top Performers management structures
2.Impact to Retention
3.Effective Management Structure
Demographics Early identification
& Diversity of gaps in
1.Effectiveness of Diversity Programs
diversity
2.Early Identification of Gaps in
Diversity
Learning & Develop a
Development competitive workforce
1.Effectiveness of Development
Programs
Retention 2.Alignment of Progression to Measure “churn”
Development

Source; Jonathan Ferrar, IBM, Human 44

Asset 2011, Budapest 1.Turnover Issues
2.Loss of Development
Investments
 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

How can HR professionals provide insight in

the strategic workforce planning process?

What does this mean?

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 DI³ DI³
Data
Information Data. Information. Intelligence.
Intelligence Insight
Insight

Data
Quantitative Information
about the workforce-
Numbers employed and
where; Grades,
Demographics
.

Insight
How do our people contribute Information
to competitive advantage? Internal-turnover, absence
What does the strategic data, demographics,
workforce plan tell us about working patterns, succession
current and future make up of
the workforce?
DI³ planning, talent planning,
competence levels achieved,
How can we ensure that the
skills
workforce is aligned with
today’s and tomorrow’s External- labour markets
business strategy?
Intelligence
Internal- Workforce
knowledge and skills fit with
business strategy
Cultural fit
Change management
External- demographic trends
Predictive modelling

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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

What are the key challenges

in strategic workforce
planning?
What can we do about
them?

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 DI³
Data Challenges and enablers of workforce planning
Information (CIPD )
Intelligence challenges enablers
Insight

•Lack of clarity or focus in the organisation strategy •A ‘triangle’ of conversation about future requirements
between the business, HR and finance

•A constantly shifting strategy •Workforce champions in the business

•Too much focus on the operational and budgetary •Having a good process that enables everyone to feed
planning at expense of longer-term planning or a in information and is informed by the needs of the
strategic direction for planning business

•Processes that don’t join up, meaning information is
not fed into the planning cycle or that effort is
duplicated
•Failure to develop plans that are responsive enough
to adapt to a changing environment
•HR and the line working together to understand future
people needs
•Understanding the difference between supply and
demand for labour

•Failure to review plans in the light of new information •Bottom–up communication feeding the planning
that indicates change process

•Poor-quality data/systems •Good-quality data that people can believe,

accompanied by adequate analysis to explain what it
means for the business; predictive modelling

•Too much focus on the numbers of people required •Leaders acting on the data to make informed
and not enough on capacity and potential to develop decisions
new skills and abilities in the future

•An overcomplicated system or trying to do too much •Regular planning cycle and reviews with feedback into
too soon the planning process

•Lack of planning skills and good guidance on •Developing managers’ workforce and resource
workforce planning planning skills

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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight In summary- New Strategic Workforce Planning
will:

•be integrated with business strategy and

planning

•be used in short-term resourcing as well as

longer-term planning

• incorporate flexibility

•and predictive modelling using data analytics

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 DI³
Data
Information

Intelligence
Insight

Strategic Workforce Planning

‘A core process of human resource
management’

Paul
Turner