A FRAMEWORK FOR CRIME PREDICTION AND PREVENTION IN NIGERIA USING DEEP

LEARNING
 
BY
OGHU EMUGHEDI
(PG/MAS/19/229)
 
 
A SEMINAR REPORT PRESENTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE, FACULTY
OF SCIENCES
FEDERAL UNIVERSITY, LOKOJA
 
 
 
SUPERVISOR : DR. TAIWO KOLAJO
 
 
 
 
SEPTEMBER, 2021

1
 INTRODUCTION
The organized method of policing the country Nigeria has failed and there is urgent need to
seek for alternative approach in addressing this life threating societal ill. Ameh et al. (2020)
stated that rising incidence of kidnapping have become so prevalence and have been a source
of concerns to the government, members of the public and international community.
Benjamin and Daniel (2014) stated that Bokoharam kidnapped over 200 schoolgirls sitting for
their final exams in the town of Chibok in Borno State.
Nnam and Otu (2015) opined several studies on kidnapping in Nigeria revealed that the
floodgate of kidnapping activities was opened on 12th January, 2006, when MEND (Movement
for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta) captured four (4) expatriate oil workers in Ekeremo
Local Government Area of Bayelsa State and the current pattern or trend of kidnapping in
contemporary Nigeria is a basket case; little wonder therefore that the latest global ranking
placed Nigeria as the fourth most notorious kidnapping nation where people can be easily
kidnapped with impunity.
The activities of these men of underworld have made the life of an average Nigerians
meaningless and unpredictable 2
 INTRODUCTION CONT
 The use of Big Data and Deep Learning have been fully utilized in USA, UK,
India and other Western World in using to handle crime problems to a
manageable level (Manengadan et al., 2021; Bello-Orgaz, 2016).
 Using the concept of data mining we can extract previously unknown, useful
information from an unstructured data (Werner, Yang & McConky, 2017). 
 Further work on the researched publication Employing Deep Learning and Time
Series Analysis to Tackle the Accuracy and Robustness of the Forecasting
Problem is expected to be performed on scalability analysis and implement the
proposed method for different datasets( Haseeb et al.2021)

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 STATEMENT OF RESEARCH
PROBLEM
 Major crimes in Nigeria include rape, kidnapping, murder, burglary, fraud,
terrorism, robbery, cyber-crimes, bribery and corruption, money laundering
and so on have made life of an average Nigeria unbearable and life
threatening.
 These crimes occur in every part of Nigeria in hourly, daily, weekly, monthly
and yearly basis (Oguntunde et al., 2018; Ameh et al., 2020).
 Automatic crime prediction using deep learning algorithms has played an
increasingly critical role in criminal justice systems and crime prevention
efforts.
 Previous work, such as (Luo et al., 2017), shows that deep learning can assist
decision-making by processing a very high volume of data that are difficult for
human researchers to analyze efficiently (Khan et al., 2021). 4
 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE
STUDY
The aim of the study is to propose a framework for crime prediction
and prevention in Nigeria using deep learning
The objectives are:

To identify the features necessary to develop a framework for crime

prediction and prevention in Nigeria.

To propose a framework for crime prediction and prevention in

Nigeria.
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SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
 It will restore peace to the country.
 Increase in job creation.
 High flow of direct foreign investments into country.
 There will be high boom of tourist activities in the Nigeria.
 People will be willing to travel and live in any part of Nigeria
without fear or threat to their life.
 Nigerians will be very proud of their country.
 People can easily travel to their remote villages to visit
families without any fear of kidnapping, robbery etc. 6
 REVIEW OF RELATED WORK
 Deep learning (that is, machine learning via deep neural networks, or DNNs)
has been applied to image classification, speech recognition and neural
machine translation, reporting increasing levels of accuracy over the last
years. (Castello, Dolz, Quintana-Orti and Duato,.2019).
 Predictive policing and crime analytics with a spatiotemporal focus get
increasing attention among a variety of scientific communities and are already
being implemented as effective policing tools(Ourania, Alina, Adelson  and
Michael.2020).
 One of the main challenges in big data streaming analysis is the issue of
scalability(Taiwo, Olawande and Ayodele 2019).
 By combination, we mean merging the two datasets from the union of their
records by removing the duplicate records(Ursula , Castro, Marcos, Rodrigues
and Wladmir,. 2020). 7
 REVIEW OF RELATED WORK
CONT’D
 Prabakaran and Shilpa (2018) work on Survey of Analysis of Crime Detection Techniques Using
Data Mining and Machine Learning in which Data mining is the field containing procedures for
finding designs or patterns in a huge dataset, it includes strategies at the convergence of
machine learning and database framework.
 Alkesh and Sarvanaguru (2018) work on Crime Prediction and Analysis Using Machine Learning
in which Crime is one of the biggest and dominating problem in our society and its prevention is
an important task.
 ToppiReddy et al. (2018) worked on Crime Prediction & Monitoring Framework Based on Spatial
Analysis in which Crimes are treacherous and common social problem faced worldwide.
 Manengadan et al.,(2021) expressed that Crimes are common social problems that can even
affect the quality of life, even the economic growth of a country.
 Neil, Nandish and Manan (2021) Crime forecasting: a machine learning and computer vision
approach to crime prediction and prevention in which crime is a deliberate act that can cause
physical or psychological harm, as well as property damage or loss, and can lead to punishment
by a state or other authority according to the severity of the crime. 8
Table 2.4.1: Summary of Related Works

S/N AUTHOR(s) OBJECTIVE(s) METHODOLOGY OUTCOME(S) LIMITATION

1. Lawrence Focus of this project Linear Regression Regression Non-

and is towards analyzing Additive Regression algorithms predictive
Natarajan the crime patterns of Decision Stump mentioned in (identifying
(2015) the four violent the previous variables)
crime. section were features could
used for the possibly
predictions and hinder
comparison implementatin

2 Prabakaran helpful in designing General techniques used crime Designing new

and Shilpa new strategies for in fraud detection. investigation is strategies for
(2018) crime prediction and Genetic algorithm. an interesting determining
analysis. Hidden Markov application to future crime
Model(HMM). process crime prediction and
Naive Bayesian characteristics analysis.

3 Alkesh and Train a model for Data collection. The model The current
Sarvanaguru prediction. Data Preprocessing. predicts the problem faced
(2018)  Building the Feature selection. type of is the aspect
model will be Building and Traning crime with of maintaining
done using Model. accuracy of a proper
better Prediction. 0.789. dataset of
algorithm Visualization. crime

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4 ToppiReddy visualizing techniques Data collection & visualization Future plan
et al. (2018) and machine learning preprocessing. techniques and for applying
algorithms are Data visualization classification other
adopted for predicting Visualization of Crime algorithms that classification
the crime distribution Data Using Google can be used for algorithms on
over an area. Maps. predicting the the crime
Accurate real-time Visualization of Exact crimes
crime predictions help Location of Crime with
to reduce the crime 3D View.
rate but remains Visualization based on
challenging problem type of Crime.

5 Dhinakaran tendency to compare Data processing Crime Combined

et al. (2020) the placement of the Clustering knowledge is techniques are
particular hotspots K-means agglomeration that the needed to
with those found by Algorithm: dynamic and make a higher
the results rising analysis. crime
prediction

6 Neil, Ways to predict Data gathering. Aim at First, the

Nandish and crime, in detail. Data preprocessing. assisting body correct and
Manan Chose the model. of researchers complete
(2021) Train model to make crime building of the
Test model prediction a whole system
Tuning model reality and has to be done
prediction implement in the near
such advanced future
technology in
real li

10
 METHODOLOGY
This section involves the use of Method, material, tools and techniques and technologies to explain the fig 3.1.0 the framework
on crime prediction and prevention Model to be extracted from crime dataset. The following are various stages in crime
dataset analysis:
 Data Collection: Data for the research is expected to be collected from crime data’s from Nigeria police, Prisons
database(Correctional database) and from Twitter API(Application Program Interface) save in comma separated value
file(csv). Featured Attributes For each entry of crime incidents in the datasets, the following 13 featured attributes are
included: 1) IncidentNum , 2) Dates, 3) Category, 4) Descript to mention a few
 Data preprocessing: is the process of preparing the raw data involves removing of null values using df = df.dropna() where
df is the data frame. The categorical attributes (Location, Block, Crime Type, Community Area) are converted into numeric
using Label Encoder. The date attribute is splitted into new attributes like month and hour which can be used as feature for
the and making it suitable for deep learning modelling:
Features Extraction: is a type of dimensionality reduction where large numbers of pixels of the image are efficiently
represented in such a way that interesting parts are captured effectively. Dimensionality reduction techniques reduce the high
dimensional data to low-dimensional data. In this study, we have applied the principal component analysis (PCA) method
which provides linear mapping based on an eigenvector search. PCA provides different approaches to reduce the feature space
dimensionality [35, 36].

(ii)Data cleaning is the process of fixing or removing incorrect, corrupted, incorrectly formatted, duplicate, or
incomplete data within a dataset.
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 Data collection

Data collection
 
Feature   Data Cleaning
Extractions  
 

Data conversion in time series

Check stationarity of time-series data

Structured data/Unstructured Data

 
   

80% Training 20% Testing

dataset dataset

ARIMA
SES Crime prediction models
HW
RNN-LSTM
Evaluate forecasting performance
Figure 3.1.0: Proposed Methodology
 METHODOLOGY CONTINUE(1)
 Data conversion in time series: A key function to help transform time series data into a supervised
learning problem is the Pandas shift() function.
 Time series are  stationary if they do not have trend or seasonal effects.
 Structured data: comprised of clearly defined data types with patterns that make them easily searchable.
 Unstructured Data Analysis Information Extraction
unstructured data, which is comprised of data from emails, social media feeds and crimes related calls. Analyze semi- structured and
unstructured data sets for improved crime prediction.
As an outcome, organizations have to analyze semi- structured and unstructured crime datasets to extract structured data insights to make
improved crimes predictions.
Use of big data analytics tools and technology such Hadoop, NoSQL databases are being expected to deploy.

 Training data: is the data you use to train an algorithm or deep learning model to predict the outcome
you design your model to predict. 80% of data are usually taken as training dataset.
 Testing data:20% Test data provides a final, real-world check of an unseen dataset to confirm that the
deep Learning algorithm was trained effectively.
Various Models that Successfully with proposed Crime prediction model are: 13
 METHODOLOGY CONTINUE(2)
 ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) Model
ARIMA is an acronym that stands for AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average. It is a
generalization of the simpler AutoRegressive Moving Average and adds the notion of
integration.
This acronym is descriptive, capturing the key aspects of the model itself. Briefly, they are:
AR: Autoregression. A model that uses the dependent relationship between an observation and
some number of lagged observations.
I: Integrated. The use of differencing of raw observations (e.g. subtracting an observation from
an observation at the previous time step) in order to make the time series stationary.
MA: Moving Average. A model that uses the dependency between an observation and a
residual error from a moving average model applied to lagged observations.

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 METHODOLOGY(3)
• Simplest Exponentially Smoothing(SES)
This method is suitable for forecasting data with no clear trend or seasonal pattern. The data do
not display any clear trending behaviour or any seasonality.
 . Holt–Winters Exponential Smoothing Method. Holt–Winters(HW) exponential smoothing
method was designed in 1960 by extending the exponential smoothing method. HW is applied
when data are in the stationary form. For the calculation of the prediction measures, all the data
values need to be in series. This method is suitable when data are with the trend and
seasonality.
 Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are modified versions of the RNN that can help to
solve the short- and long-term dependencies which make it easier to remember previous data.
LSTM networks are trained using backpropagation through time which helps to overcome the
vanishing gradient problem.
Traditional neural networks have neurons, while LSTM networks have memory blocks connected
through sequential layers. Each module contains gates that can handle module status and outputs.
The gated formation of the LSTM network manages its memory state 15
 CONTRIBUTION
 This researched have provided a framework, that would
assist in solving the ever increasing crimes in Nigeria, using
deep learning.

 The incorporation of open sources tools and technologies for

scalability of big data streaming will enable the proposed
framework for crime prediction become more effective for
capturing of structured and unstructured dataset.
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 CONCLUSION
From my researched, Deep learning using Long Short Term
Memory(LSTM) can help the police and other law enforcement
agencies to fight crimes and makes Nigeria the most safest place to
live and work in the World.

How to source for these data, where these crimes

databanks(warehouse) are in Nigeria and how to assess it should be
something of concerns to all scientist and other professional alike.
Data is the present day Gold that all the advance countries are using
to solve all myriads of theirs societal problems, that they are being
confronted on daily basis.
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 REFERENCES
This section contained some of the references
Benjamin M. & Daniel A., (2014). boko haram kidnaps women and young girls in north-eastern
Nigeria, pp-51-56
Nnam, M .U. & Otu, M. S.,( 2015). Predictors and Incidence of Kidnapping in Contemporary Nigeria: A
Socio-Criminological Analysis; International Journal of Recent Research in Social Sciences and
Humanities (IJRRSSH), Vol. 2, Issue 1, pp: (38-43),
Bello-Orgaz, (2016). Social big data: Recent achievements and new challenges, Journal of
Information fusion volume 28, page 45
Werner, G., Yang, S., & McConky, K. (2017). Time series forecasting of cyber attack intensity.
Proceedings of the 12th Annual Conference on Cyber and Information Security Research - CISRC pp-1-
3
Ameh et al. (2020). Kidnapping in Nigeria: Dimensions, causes and consequences; International
Journal of Scientific Research and Reviews; JSRR Volume 9 , Issue(2), pp-135-155.
Mufeeda M. et al.; (2021). Crime Data Analysis, Visualization and Prediction Using Long Short
Term Memory, LSTM, International Journal of Data Science and Analysis, Volume7, Issue3 pages 51-59
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 References(1)
ToppiReddy et al, 2018. Crime prediction & monitoring framework based on spatial Analysis, International
Conference on Computational Intelligence and Data Science (ICCIDS), Procedia Computer Science 132 , pp-
696–705
Kolajo et al; 2019. Big data stream analysis: a systematic literature review. Journal of Big Data, Volume6,
Number47, page 1 -30
Castello, A., Dolz, M. F., Quintana-Orti, E. S., & Duato, J. (2019). Theoretical Scalability Analysis of Distributed
Deep Convolutional Neural Networks. 2019 19th IEEE/ACM International Symposium on Cluster, Cloud and Grid
Computing (CCGRID), pp-532-541

Neil, Nandish & Manan (2021). Crime forecasting: a machine learning and computer vision approach to crime
prediction and prevention, Journal of Visual Computing for Industry, Biomedicine, and Art, article 9, pp-1-5
Haseeb et al. (2021)Employing Deep Learning and Time Series Analysis to Tackle the Accuracy and Robustness
of the Forecasting Problem, Hindawi Security and Communication Network, pp-1-10
Luo et al (2017). Learning to predict charges for criminal cases with legal basis. In
Proceedings of the 2017 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing,
pp. 2727–2736
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 End
Thank you

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