Vulnerability and

Risk
GROUP VI 12-GAS
 Before we start,
let’s play a game!

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 _______
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VOLPUQE

NIERLOA
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A G B I L I TY
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SDRAOK
I E N R K LA

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ELIMTSG
PONEEXC

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 LEARNING
GOALS LEARNING OBJECTIVES
OUTCOMES • As you work through this session you
will learn to distinguish between the
• To instill an • After concepts
understandin completing • of vulnerability
g of the this session, • List and describe criteria that add to
the vulnerability of a community
concepts of you will be • List and describe criteria that reduce
vulnerability able to the vulnerability
and risk perform a • Name and explain the components in
• To develop quantification
risk • Give a breakdown of elements at risk
the capability assessment • Construct a risk matrix
for risk for a selected • Explain risk as a function of hazard,
loss and preparedness
assessment community. 7
 1.

“
VULNERA BILITY
DEFINITION
▧ The predisposition to suffer damage due to external events
▧ A set of prevailing and consequential conditions - physical,
social, and attitudinal - which adversely affect the
community's ability to prevent, mitigate, prepare and respond
to the impact of a hazard event. The predisposition to suffer
damage due to external events. - ADPC
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 DEFINITION

▧ This definition is more focused on communities.

▧ Vulnerability is a condition or a predisposition. It
applies to individuals, groups of individuals or
communities, but it can be also used when referring
to physical structures or the environment in general.

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Vulnerability is about SUSCEPTIBILITY and RESILIENCE
under threat of a hazard event.

▧SUSCEPTIBILIT ▧RESILIENCE
Y Access to resources and
Proximity and capacities which
exposure to an determine the ability to
event. It is the recover from the
potential to incur impacts of to a hazard
harm or avoid loss. event.
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 1.1.1.

“
SUSCEPTI BILITY
DEFINITION
▧ It is the fact of being exposed.
▧ You can be susceptible but not vulnerable. E.g. a
landslide is threatening a house but the owners
have built wall to protect it and to divert the
landslide. Susceptibility is the easy to assess.
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 1.1.1.

“
EXPO SURE
DEFINITION

▧ It is the state of being physically affected from a

hazard

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 1.1.2.

RESI
“
DEFINITION
LIENCE

▧ It is the ability to adjust and recover.

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 1.1.2.

CAPA
“
DEFINITION
CITY

▧ Those positive conditions or recourses which

increase the ability of a community to deal with
hazards.

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CAPACITY MAY HAVE…
▧ Physical
▧ Social/Organizational
▧ Attitudinal/Motivational components.
If susceptibility is very low and resilience very high, one has minimum
vulnerability.
▧ E.g. take a displaced population in an emergency settlement.
Susceptibility to measles is very high. If all children are immunized
however, resilience is high, and the vulnerability would be low.
When Susceptibility is high and resilience very low, one has maximum
vulnerability. If the children are not immunized, resilience is very low and
the vulnerability is high.
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 1.1.2.

CAPA
“
DEFINITION
CITY

▧ Capacity is also reflected in the preparedness of

the community to face a hazard event.

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 1.1.2.

PREPARED
“
DEFINITION
NESS

▧ Measures taken in anticipation of a disaster to

ensure that appropriate and effective actions are
taken in the aftermath of a hazard event.

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 1.1.2.

RE
S “
DEFINITION
PONSE

▧ Refer to actions taken immediately following the

impact of a hazard event when exceptional
measures are required to meet the basic needs of
the survivors.
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 1.1.2.

RE
S “ PONSE
DEFINITION
▧ It refers to the sum of all actions taken to adjust to
hazards; more narrowly defined to mean the appropriate
actions taken during an emergency to protect people and
the things they value from harm, rescue them, and
facilitate the transition to post-disaster recovery.

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 1.2.

SOCIO- ECONO
“
DEFINITION
MIC INDICATORS

▧ Socio-economic indicators provide another

dimension to view Vulnerability.

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The Indicator of Human Development (IHD) is synthesized by
combining other indicators and gathers together
▧ The adjusted GDP per capita
▧ Life expectancy
▧ Adult literacy

The assumption is that the lower the IHD, the lower will be the
mean wealth, the literacy and the average health state of the
population. This will increase the vulnerability to physical
hazards.
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 1.2.

SOCIO- ECONO
“ MIC INDICATORS
DEFINITION
▧ Poverty is one of the major vulnerability criteria.
Poverty also has an effect on housing which
constitute a usually high damage percentage in
case of disaster. (Center for Research on the
Epidemiology of Disasters, CRED).
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 1.2.

DEMOGRAPHIC
“
DEFINITION
INDICATORS
▧ When high to very high population densities
(>200 hab/km2) are combined with unfavorable
socio-economic parameters (low IDH, high birth
and mortality rates), the vulnerability is expected
to be high (CRED).
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 2. RISK
2.2 D E F I N I T I O N
“Risk is the likelihood or probability of a hazard event of a certain magnitude
occurring. Risks are measures of the threat of hazards”. -ADPC
“Risk is the actual exposure of something of human value
to a hazard. Often regarded as the product of probability and loss” -ADPC
“Risk is the exposure or the chance of loss due to a particular hazard for a
given area and reference period. It may be expressed mathematically as the
probability that a hazard impact will occur multiplied by the consequences of
that impact”- ADPC
(NOTE: DEFINITIONS OF RISK IN THE HAZARDS LITERATURE VARY FROM THOSE THAT EQUATE RISK WITH PROBABILITY
TO THOSE THAT SEE RISK AS THE PRODUCT OF A PROBABILITY AND A PARTICULAR KIND OF IMPACT OCCURRING.)

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 2.1

“
▧ RISK and HAZARD are two concepts that are
DIFFERENT from each other.

How?

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 2.1

“
▧ The ocean is a hazard (deep water and large waves). If one attempts to
cross the ocean in a small rowboat, a great risk (probability of capsizing
and drowning) is incurred. If the crossing is made aboard the Queen
Elizabeth, (a large passenger ship) the risk is reduced - all else being
equal. The ocean-going vessel is a device used as a safeguard against the
hazard.
▧ In general, risk may be diminished by increasing safeguards but never
eliminated unless the hazard itself is removed.

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 1.2.

CONSE
“
DEFINITION
QUENCE
▧ The monetary and non-monetary "costs" or "losses”
of a hazard event. This is financial, economic, life
safety, environmental, social, legal and other costs or
losses. Its assessment may be made easier if the
elements at risk are enumerated first.
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ELEMENTS AT RISK
Physical Economic
Infrastructure, Roads, Railway, Bridges, Business and trade activities,
Harbor, Airport Access to work
Critical Facilities Impact on work force
Emergency shelters, Schools, Hospitals Opportunity cost
and Nursing Homes, Fire Brigades, Societal
Police, Utilities (Power supply & Water Vulnerable age categories, Low income
supply), Transport, Communication, group people, Gender
Government services Environmental
Loss of biodiversity, Damaged
Landscape, Physical and Chemical
changes in the surroundings

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2.2. QUANTIFICATION OF RISK
There are three essential components to the quantification of risk after
identification of local hazards:
▧ Hazard occurrence probability (p)- the probability of occurrence
of a specified natural hazard at a specified severity level in a
specified future time period.
▧ Elements at risk - an inventory of those people or things, which
are exposed to the hazard.
▧ Expected loss (L) - the degree of loss to each element, should a
hazard of a given severity occur. Its accuracy and acceptability
will depend on the methodology used to derive it.

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 “
Disaster losses include the direct impacts like the loss of life,
housing and infrastructure as well as indirect impacts on
production in utility services, transport labor supplies, suppliers
and markets. Secondary losses include impacts on
macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, balance of
payments, public spending and inflation. The impacts are felt
more by developing countries.
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In 1997, a cyclone struck the Andrah Pradesh. The following loss
figures were estimated for the East Godavari District.
Houses destroyed 289,906
Houses damaged 89,677
TOTAL 379, 583
Persons rendered homeless 1.442 million
If measures were taken to strengthen houses by retrofitting, the loss
would have been reduced as follows.
Houses destroyed Nil
Houses damaged 136,486
Persons rendered homeless 0.519 million
The economic benefit is estimated to be Rs. 91 crores

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 It is advisable that, if a hazard event does occur, that a post-audit be
carried out so that one may match the 'actual Vs the expected'. This
would give more understanding on deficiencies of the Risk Assessment
carried out and help to improve the process next time around.
Note:
The probability of occurrence of natural hazards events may be estimated by
statistical extrapolation from historical data. The accuracy of such estimates depends
on the completeness of data and the period of time over which it has been collected.

Losses are measured differently for different hazards, by different agencies and by
different users. Most loss data are dollar estimates, but some dollar estimates are for
specific agencies or only one level of government. The estimates could show
variability as well as considerable uncertainties and is valid for only a short period of
time.

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 2.2.1.

“
RISK ASSESSMENT
DEFINITION
▧ It is the overall process of identifying and analyzing
risks. The characterizing hazards within risk areas,
analyzing them for the consequences and
probabilities of occurrence, and combining the two
estimate reach a risk rating.
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▧ Risk Assessment provides a sound basis for mitigation
planning and for allocation funds and other resources.
▧ Some use the term Hazard Vulnerability Analysis (HVA) to
express Risk.
▧ It is the process of evaluating risk associated with a specific
hazard and defined in terms of probability and frequency of
occurrence, magnitude and SEVERITY, exposure and
consequences.
▧ Here, SEVERITY means the event's duration and impact
area.
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 FREQUENCY VS. SEVERITY
Where flooding occurs every year or every few years, the hazard becomes
part of the landscape, and projects are sited and designed with this
constraint in mind. Conversely, in an area where a tsunami may strike any
time in the next 50 or 100 years, it is difficult to stimulate interest in
vulnerability reduction measures even though the damage may be
catastrophic. With so long a time, investment in capital-intensive measures
may not be economically viable. Rare 'or low-probability events of great
severity are the most difficult to mitigate, and vulnerability reduction may
demand risk-aversion measures beyond those justified by economic
analysis.

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 There are many methodologies for
Risk Assessment from High Tech
computer-based methods to pencil
pushing and head scratching
Computer-based Geographic
Information Systems (GIS)
modeling use many different kinds
of information to assess risk.
However it needs sophisticated
hardware, software and expertise
of handling them

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 2.2.1.

“
RISK MATRIX
DEFINITION
▧ A simpler method is the Risk Matrix Analysis
▧ The method gives a qualitative measure that permits the
prioritization of risk among multiple hazards. It enables hazard
mitigation planners to classify various types of hazards into
different categories of priority by locating them on a two-
dimensional grid based on their probability and loss.
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The ranking of ‘high’,’moderate’, and ‘low’ is subjective and would vary from one
group to another. The ranking depends on: Probability of hazard event and Potential
loss.
A risk Matrix
P
R
C B A A
O
B C B B A
A
B
I D C B B
L
I
T
D D C V
Y Low Medium High Very High
POTENTIAL LOSS

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 The following guidelines may be used to do a
matrix analysis.
PROBABILITY LOSS
High Events that occur more Based on the potential by taking
frequently than once in into account elements at risk
10 years
Moderate Events that occur from
once in 10 years to
Fatalities, Injuries, Impact on
once in 100 years. facilities, critical services and
Low Events that occur from
infrastructure, Property damage
once in 100 years to Business interruption,
once in 1000 years. Environmental/Economic
Very Low Events that occur less impact
frequently than once in
1000 years.

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Class A
High-risk condition. Immediate action is necessary. Possible deaths over 1000. People affected may
be over 100,000. Complete shut down of facilities and critical services for more than 14 days. Over
50% of property located in the area may be damaged
Class B
Moderate to high-risk condition where risk can be reduced by mitigation activities and contingency planning.
Prompt attention needed. Possible deaths less than 1000. People affected may be between 50,000 to
100,000
Complete shutdown of facilities and critical services for 7 days. 25% of the property located in the area may
be damaged
Class C
Low risk condition. However investment in further mitigation and planning may be necessary after cost-benefit
analysis. Possibility of death low. People affected between 10,000 and 50,000. Complete shutdown of
facilities not more than 1 day. About 10% of the property located in the area may be damaged.
Class D
Very low risk condition. Only limited action necessary. No possibility of death. People affected less than
10,000
Facilities and critical services may not be affected. About 1% of the property located in the area may be
damaged.

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 Risk as a function of hazard, loss and preparedness

▧ According to Fournier d'Albe (1979), risk may be

conceptualized as follows:
Hazard(probability)x Loss (expected)
RISK Preparedness (Loss mitigation
=

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▧ In literature especially in training material there is a
tendency to replace 'preparedness' with "capacity" and
"manageability".
All three terms have tangible and intangible components of:
▧ Physical/material
▧ Social/organizational
▧ Attitudinal/motivational aspects.

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▧ Thus their quantification cannot be discrete. It is advisable
therefore, not to treat this conceptualization as a mathematical
entity because of the emotive aspects that are inclusive in
"preparedness". It is wiser to consider that disaster risk is a
function of preparedness/capacity/
manageability.
✓ The greater the hazard probability, the greater the risk.
✓ The greater the loss, the greater the risk.
✓ The greater the preparedness or capacity of a community, the lesser
the risk (Capacity and Risk show an inversely proportional
relationship) Risk = function (hazard, loss, preparedness)
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 Preparedness has an inverse relationship to risk
2.2.2. THE METHODOLOGY FOR RISK
ASSESSMENT
i. Define the geographic area to be studied.
ii. Identify the type and amount of data needed to complete the risk
assessment.
iii. Identify the potential hazard(s) within the risk area.
iv. Identify vulnerability.
v. Prepare an inventory of elements at risk.
vi. Apply hazard specific damage functions to the inventory to determine
direct damage quantitatively or rank potential damage qualitatively
vii. Apply loss functions to damage results to estimate level of financial,
qualita
personal, or property losses quantitatively or rank potential losses
tively
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 ▧ I. STUDY AREA
The first step in the risk assessment process is to demarcate the
extent of the area that comes under the study. The boundaries
used may be administrative, political, geographic or user
defined grid. This selection is based on the objective of the
study. If the objective is to prepare a regional emergency
response plan, the study area must include the communities
where emergency response teams are expected to be active. If
the objective is to plan local community mitigation action, then
the study area may be much smaller.

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 II. DATA COLLECTION
Data must be complete as much as possible, accurate and must
be relevant to the objective of the study. It is wise to identify
the potential sources of data needed and the methods to collect
them prior to the collection proper. In order to assure
consistency, it may be necessary to orient the data collectors
prior to field action.

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 III. POTENTIAL HAZARDS
This is the process of hazard identification discussed earlier.
The step may lead to the preparation of hazard maps.
IV. VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
V.ELEMENTS AT RISK
These were discussed earlier.
VI. DETERMINING POTENTIAL DAMAGE
Research results have helped to define damage
damage likely to occur with specific hazard exposure. With
adequate data, acceptable quantitative assessments may be
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arrived at. Where data is insure qualitative ranking of potential
damage may be done.
VII. APPLICATION OF LOSS FUNCTIONS
Based on the assessment of damage, loss functions may be
applied so that the we as human casualties may be estimated.
This is a little complex as the number of people in particular
buildings at different times of the day varies. An example is a
school. If the disaster strikes during the night, there are no
casualties associated with the school building.

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 2.2.3.

▧
RIS
K “
DEFINITION
MAPPING
This is the presentation of the results of risk assessment on a map,
showing the levels of expected losses which can be anticipated in specific
areas, during a particular time period, as a result of particular disaster
hazards - UNDRO
▧ Usually qualitative terms such as 'high', 'medium' and 'low' are used to
represent the level of risk. Risk assessment results and hazard maps
studied under Session 4 can be combined to yield a Risk Map.

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 2.2.4.

▧
RIS
K “
DEFINITION
PERCEPTION
Knowing how the general public perceives risk is helpful for hazard
management activities. Risk means different things to different people.
The dominant influence is past experience. Most lay perceivers and the
media give greater weight to hazards that take many lives at any one
time. Technical experts may give similar weight to hazards that may
give rise to cumulative effect. There is need therefore for better
communication between the two groups. (Smith 2001).

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 Risk perception may be studied in two different ways.
The revealed preference is through observing. The expressed preference is
obtained through questionnaires distributed to the perceivers. However, the
study of opinion is a difficult task whatever the method is used.

Many might express a fatalistic view - that nothing can be done about risk.
Some may deny the threat. With adequate awareness, others may consider
that survival possible through preparedness. Risk perception is influenced
by many interrelated factors such as past experience, attitudes, values, as
well as social and cultural perspectives.

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 A politician who has a probabilistic perception that disasters
will occur and that many events are random would probably be
strength in resource allocation and mitigation work.

Another with a dissonant perception would deny the threat and

would dismiss the possibility of a hazard event striking again.
He would be a hindrance to risk mitigation work. Hazard
management must therefore involve awareness creation
amongst stakeholders.

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 2.2.5.

ACCEPTABLE
“ RIS
D E F I N I T I OK
N
▧ This is a subjective evaluation from an individual or a group
point of view. For example, living near a flood plain may
bring the benefit of fertile soil for agriculture. The farmers
may tolerate annual floods up to a threshold value. Beyond
this level the losses may override the benefits. Risk becomes
unacceptable.
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 2.2.5.

ACCEPTABLE
“
EXAMPLE
RIS
K
▧ Similarly local administrative bodies or national governments may ignore
risk up to a certain magnitude as hazard reduction measures might not
appear desirable through a cost-benefit analysis. The use of a Risk Matrix
might help in determining whether a risk is acceptable. This may be
important in decision making to allocate scarce resources for disaster
management. Defining the acceptable level of risk is the responsibility of
the government.

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 2.2.5.

RISK COMMU
“
DEFINITION
NICATION
▧ An interactive process of exchange of information and
opinion among stakeholders; often involves multiple
messages about the nature of risk or expressing concerns,
opinions, or reactions to risk messages or to legal and
institutional arrangements for risk management.

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