NBA Three

Pointers Made
by the Season
Leader
(1979-2021)
M AT H 3 6 5 P R O J E C T

BEN NAGEL
THE DATA

MIDRANGE  THREE POINTERS

Why?
1. Players like Stephen Curry and
James Harden
2. Data Analytics

shottracker.com
 The Data

Taken from Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Basketball_Association_career_3-point_scoring_leaders)

 The Time Series
The reign of
Stephen Curry –
leading the
league in 2012-
2017, along with
2020-21. He is
currently on pace
to break his
record of 402 3-
pointers made in
a single season
The NBA 3-point
line is introduced
in 1979, with NBA seasons
Brian Taylor shortened due
leading the league to player
with 90 three’s lockout in the
made in the 1995-96 and
inaugural season 2011-12 seasons
Transformation
for Stationarity

• Second
Difference of
Log

ADF test rigorously

proves stationarity Constant mean, constant variance over time✓
 Model Specification

Suggested MA(1) AR(2)

Model(s):
 Model Specification

Suggested MA(1), AR(7), ARMA(14, 15),

AR(2)
Model(s): ARMA(6, 2) ARMA(7, 12)
Model Specification
Linear Model
Model Diagnostics
For second difference transformation:
Model AIC Trends/patter Normality of Independence Overfitted? Simple?
ns in residual Residuals of Residuals
plot?
MA(1) -1.04 No Normal Independent No Yes
MA(2) -3.3 No Normal Independent No Yes
AR(2) 11.17 No Not normal Independent No Yes
AR(7) 2.55 No Normal Independent Maybe Not as simple
as it could be

ARMA(6, 2) 0.97 Maybe Normal Independent Yes Not as simple

as it could be

ARMA(14, 15) 22.74 Maybe Normal Independent Yes No

ARMA(7, 12) 8.29 Maybe Normal Independent Yes No
MA(2)
Model Diagnostics
Normal residuals ✓

Runs test
Independent residuals ✓

No trends in residual plot ✓ AIC: -3.3

Parameter Estimation: Yt = et - 1.4274et - 1 + 0.4274et - 2

AR(2)
Model Diagnostics
Normal residuals X

Runs test
Independent residuals ✓

No trends in residual plot ✓ AIC: 11.17

Parameter Estimation: Yt = -0.7989Yt - 1 – 0.4278Yt - 1 + et

Linear Model

Model Diagnostics Parameter Estimation

No trends in residual plot ✓ Y = 5.6658 × Year + 77.2359
RSE: 41.4 with df = 41
Adjusted R-squared: 0.7455
Forecasting
@KirkGoldsberry
@KirkGoldsberry