Probability Distributions

Contents
• Discrete Random Variable
– Binomial Distribution
– Poisson Distribution
• Continuous Random Variable
– Normal Distribution
 Binomial Distribution
• Probability distribution for Discrete random
variable.
• A binomial random variable is the number of
successes x in n repeated trials of a binomial
experiment.
• The probability distribution of a binomial
random variable is called a binomial
distribution.
 Binomial Experiment
• The binomial experiment consists of n repeated trials.
• Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes.
• We call one of these outcomes a SUCCESS and the
other, a FAILURE.
• The probability of success, denoted by ’p’, is the same
on every trial.
• The probability of failure, denoted by ‘q’ will be (1-p).
• The trials are Independent; that is, the outcome on one
trial does not affect the outcome on other trials.
 Examples
• A coin is tossed 5 times one after the other
• Getting an ‘OK’ or ‘Not OK’ for 100 parts in
quality inspection
• Getting a response ‘YES’ or ‘NO’ for the
question “Do you own a bike?” from 10
samples
• ‘PASS’ or ‘FAIL’ for 30 candidates appeared at
an exam.
 Formula
The binomial probability refers to the probability that a binomial
experiment results in exactly x successes.

P (x) = nCx . p x . q (n-x)

Where,
• n: No. of binomial trials performed,
• x: No. of SUCCESSES,
• p: Probability of success for each trial,
• q: Probability of failure for each trial (q= 1-p)
 Properties
• Mean = n * p .
• Variance = n * p * ( 1 - p ).
• Standard deviation = sqrt[ n * p * ( 1 - p) ].
 Example-1
• A fair die is rolled 10 times successively. What
is the probability of getting a score of 3 exactly
twice?

P (2) = C2 . (1/6) 2 . (5/6) (10-2)

10
 Example-2
• The probability that it will rain on a particular
day in monsoon season is 87%. What will the
probability that it will not rain on exactly 5
days in a month of 30 days in the monsoon
season?

• P (5) = 30
C5 . (0.13) 5 . (0.87) (30-5)
 Example-3
• A lot of 12 assembled pieces is inspected by
the QA department. If it is known that the
defective % is 1.5, what is the probability of
getting:
(i) Exactly 2 defective pieces?
(ii) At the most i.e. upto 3 defective pieces?
(iii) More than 3 defective pieces?
(iv) At least 2 defective pieces?
 Example-4
• A room has 16 electric bulbs. The room is
considered to be adequately illuminated if
minimum 10 bulbs glow at a time. The
probability that a bulb glows is 0.25.
Calculate the probability that the room is not
adequately illuminated.
 Example-5
• A survey was conducted and a question was asked to 20
respondents “Do you have a bank account in your name?”
The response could be either YES or NO.
• It is known that the probability of a respondent saying NO
is 24%.
• Calculate the probability of getting:
– Exactly 17 YES responses
– At the most 10 YES responses
– Less than 15 YES responses
– No. of YES responses not equal to 18
– At least 12 YES responses.
 Example-1 (Poisson Distribution)
The average number of emergency cases
received at a COVID centre per day is 8.
Calculate the probability for:
(i) Exactly 8 cases per day
(ii) More than 5 cases per day
(iii) Less than 4 cases per day
(iv) At the most 10 cases per day
 Example-2 (Poisson Distribution)
It is noted that the mean number of cyber
crimes reported in a city in one hour is 5.
Find the probability of:
(i) Exactly 7 cyber crimes reported per hour
(ii) Upto 3 cyber crimes reported per hour
(iii) Minimum 5 cyber crimes reported per hour
 Example-3 (Poisson Distribution)
As per records, the mean number of cars received
at a service station on a highway in one day is 12.
Find the probability of:
(i) Exactly 14 cars are received per day
(ii) Maximum (at the most) 11 cars are received
per day
(iii) At least 8 cars are received per day
(iv) Cars received per day are not 11.
Normal Distribution
 Characteristics of Normal Distribution
• For Continuous random variable
• Probability distribution is a bell-shaped curve
• Symmetric about the Mean value
• Mean = Median = Mode
• Probability = Area under the curve
• Total Area under the curve is 1.
• 50% value to the left of Mean, 50% to the right.
• Asymptotic curve
 Example-1
• On a shop floor, 1000 steel bars are produced.
The Mean diameter of the bars is 50 mm.
The Standard deviation in the diameter is 5 mm.
If the diameter of bars follows normal distribution,
• Calculate:
– The number of bars having diameter less than 45 mm
– The number of bars having diameter greater than 60 mm
 Example-2
• In an industry research project, 500 companies were taken as
samples.
The Mean Annual Turnover (Rs. million) of these companies is
125.
The Standard deviation in the Annual Turnover (Rs. million) is 20.
If the Annual Turnover follows normal distribution,
• Calculate:
– The number of companies having turnover less than or equal to Rs. 100
million.
– The number of companies having turnover greater than or equal to Rs.
150 million.
– The number of companies having turnover between Rs. 115 million and
Rs. 130 million.
 Example-3
In a shopping mall, the daily footfalls are normally
distributed with a mean of 1500 and SD of 300.
Calculate:
(i) The % of days having footfalls below 1400.
(ii) The probability that a day selected at random is likely to
have a footfall greater than or equal to 1700.
(iii) The proportion of days having footfalls between 1300
and 1600.
(iv) The number of footfalls which is likely to clearly
demarcate the best 10% of the days in terms of footfalls
from the rest of the days.
 Example-4
In a government-run general hospital, there is a
ward of infectious disease patients. The recovery
duration (time between admission & discharge)
is normally distributed. Mean = 8 days & SD = 3
days.
Calculate the number of days which can be
considered as a cut-off recovery duration value
such that 65% patients recover before this value.
 Example-5
In a competitive exam, the scores of candidates are
normally distributed with a mean of 142 and SD of 27.
Calculate:
(i) The % of candidates whose scores are below 150.
(ii) The probability that a candidate selected at random is
likely to have a score of greater than or equal to 135.
(iii) The proportion of candidates having scores between
130 and 148.
(iv) If for admission to a programme, only top 70%
candidates are eligible, the eligibility cut-off score.
 Example-6
• At a major railway junction receiving 235 trains daily,
the average delay in the arrival of a train is 32 min.
and SD in delay is 8 min.
• If the delay in arrival is normally distributed, calculate:
1. Approximate number of incoming trains in a day
which are delayed by more than 15 min.
2. The cut-off value of delay (min) which categorizes
trains into ‘Highly delayed’ i.e. worst 35% trains in
terms of punctuality from the other trains.
 Example-7
A courier company delivers consignments whose
weights are normally distributed. The mean & SD of
weights are 14.5 kg and 3.25 kg respectively.
1. Calculate the % of consignments whose weights are
between 13.5 kg and 14.8 kg
2. If the highest 20% weighing consignments are
categorized as ‘Heavy’, lowest 40% weighing
consignments as ‘Light’ and the remaining
consignments as ‘Medium’, calculate the
demarcating weight values.
 Example-8
• The salaries of 1200 employees in a firm are normally
distributed.
• Mean salary per year is Rs. 12,80,000 and SD is Rs. 5,30,000.
• Calculate:
– Number of employees whose salary is less than Rs. 8,70,000 per
year
– Number of employees whose salary is greater than Rs. 14,20,000
per year
– Number of employees whose salary is in between Rs. 10,70,000 per
year and Rs. 13,00,000 per year
• Calculate the salary values to clearly categorize employees in
3 categories A (top 120 earners), B (middle 360 earners) and
C (lowest 720 earners).
 Skewness
• Skewness is a measure of ‘Lack of symmetry’ of a
distribution.
• A normal distribution has zero skewness,
meaning symmetry about the mean = median =
mode.
• Negative values for the skewness indicate data
that are skewed left i.e. the left tail is longer.
• Positive values for the skewness indicate data
that are skewed right i.e. the right tail is longer.
 Kurtosis
• Kurtosis is a measure of ‘Tailedness’ i.e. whether the
data are heavy-tailed or light-tailed relative to a normal
distribution.
• Data sets with high kurtosis (Leptokurtic) tend to have
heavy tails, or outliers
• Data sets with low kurtosis (Platykurtic) tend to have
light tails, or lack of outliers.
• For Normal distribution, K = 3
• For Leptokurtic distribution, K > 3
• For Platykurtic distribution, K < 3