ANALYSIS OF THE MOVEMENT OF

THE RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE AND

COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX
BEFORE AND ON COVID-19 PERIOD

Arina Felita
12030117190235
Accounting IUP, Faculty of Economics and Business,
Universitas Diponegoro
 INTRODUCTION

An unanticipated disease called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread worldwide since the end
of 2019.

Increase in the number of sufferers with the fatality rate which is high in the last two months, the
accumulated data from March 2 to May 4, 2020 is as much 11,192 positive cases and 845 2 deaths, are
very worrying and causing panic both among the government, society and the business sector.

Response by government and communities who take preventive measures, such as: closing schools,
work from home, especially formal sector workers, postponement and cancellation of various
government and private events, stopping several modes of public transportation, and enactment of
PSBB in various regions, prohibition of going home, make the wheels of economic rotation slow
down.
INTRODUCTION

Panic caused by Covid-19 also hit Indonesia's financial markets, with indications, that during the period of
the spread of Corona January-13 April 2020 there was a capital outflow the amount reached Rp. 159.3
trillion, most of which were state securities (SBN) IDR 143.5 trillion (91%), shares IDR 11.8 trillion
(7.4%), SBI IDR 3.3 trillion (2.1%), and corporate bonds Rp0.6 trillion (0.4%) 3). Capital outflow from
foreign investors always causing high volatility both in the exchange rate movement of Rp / US $ and
stock index movements during the crisis.

The rupiah exchange rate is still fluctuating and tends to weaken, while the stock market is too
inflamed as the pace of the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) was corrected quite deeply.
Economic growth is also expected to slow down drastically, eroded by expansion the impact
of the virus on various sectors of the economy.
 PREVIOUS STUDIES
The economic impact of the
COVID-19 outbreak: Evidence Socio-Economic Impacts of the Stock Market Returns, Liquidity,
from Indonesia (2020) COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case and COVID-19 Outbreak:
by Herninda Pitaloka, Ahmad Ulil of Bandung City (2020) Evidence from UK (2020)
Albab Al Umar, Eka Resmi Hartati, by Ahmad Bash by Yasean Tahat, Ahmed Hassan
Dessy Fitria

The Effectiveness of OJK Policies

The impact of COVID-19 on The Impact of Covid-19 on
Regarding Share Buybacks
stock markets(2020) Changes in Stock Prices and
Against Changes in the JCI in
By Qing He, Junyi Liu, Sizhu Transaction Volume (2020)
Covid-19 Pandemic Period (2020)
Wang and Jishuang Yu by Ifa Nurmasari
by Septiana Na’afi

So far there is lack of journal specifically discuss about THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE AND
COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX. Previous studies have contribute impact, but with a less sample.
Since these study tries to analyze until August 2020.
 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY
1. How far Covid-19 will have an impact on the
Aims
Question
Indonesian economy where its represented on the
rupiah exchange rate and IHSG movement?
2.How to anticipate policies in order to reduce the impact
of Covid-19 against exchange rate fluctuations and the
ICI?
• Knowing the extent of the impact of Covid-19
on changes in Exchange Rates Rupiah / US $
• Knowing the extent of the impact of Covid-19
on changes in the JCI
• Estimate an outbreak and end the spread of a
pandemic Covid-19 in Indonesia
• Formulating policy recommendations in the
context of economic stability (Exchange Rate
and IHSG) through controlling the spread of
the Covid-19 outbreak and reducing it panic.
HYPOTHESIS
DEVELOPMENT

Efficient-Markets Hypothesis:
Where the market price reflects all available information published in full. When
information is rapidly reflected in security prices, there is a demand for increased
accounting disclosures.

When the exchange rate fluctuates greatly it can be caused by various factors,
among them the issue / market sentiment, usually the exchange rate of a currency
will move greatly quickly surpassed its fundamental conditions.
RESEARCH METHOD
COVID-19:
Is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

INDONESIA COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX:

is a stock market index that is effectively used on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

KURS:
is an agreement known as a currency exchange rate against a current or future
payment, between two currencies of each country or region.
HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT

H1: The higher the case C-19, the more

H2: The higher the case of C-19, the more
value of the Rupiah depreciated further
composite stock price index will be corrected
against US $.
RESEARCH METHOD
Population Sampling Data

daily Indonesia Composite

Index data
a) Surat Berharga Bank
Indonesia www.Bi.go.id
Indonesia Stock Exchange b) SBN
c) Corporate Obligation
www.ksei.co.id
d) Stocks
development of the Covid-19
case
MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION
MODEL

KURS = ꞵ0 + ꞵ1*C-19 + ꞓ
IHSG = ꞵ0 + ꞵ1*C-19 + ꞓ
KURS = ꞵ0 + ꞵ1*C-19 + ꞵ2*IHSG + ꞓ
IHSG = ꞵ0 + ꞵ1*C-19 + ꞵ2*KURS + ꞓ
THE END