ANALISA POLA

PATTERN ANALYSIS

References:
R.J. Heuer, Jr. ‘Psychology of Intelligence Analysis’
T. Buzan ‘Use Both Sides of Your Brain’
J. L. Adams ‘Conceptual Blockbusting: A Guide to Better Ideas’
 Tujuan

 Memahami Analisa Pola dan

menerapkannya dalam tugas2 analisa

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 Pengertian
A PATTERN IS:

a reliable sample of traits, tendencies,

acts, or other observable characteristics
of a person, thing, group or institution
(Suatu sampel yg dpt dipercaya ttg ciri/ sifat,
kecenderungan, aksi, atau karakteristik yg dapat
diobservasi dari suatu institusi, grup, benda atau
orang)

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Sampel

 Bagian dr populasi (Arikunto, 1998:117)

 Sebagian dr jumlah dan karakterisitik yg
dimiliki oleh populasi (Sugiyono,
1997:57)

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PATTERN ANALYSIS IS:

 Suatu proses menghubungkan dan

mengintegrasikan data dari kejadian atau
entitas tertentu agar dapat diidentifikasi dan
dieksploitasi polas dan kecenderungan
perilakunya
(A process of correlating and integrating data on selected
incidents or entities in order to identify and exploit behaviour
patterns and trends)

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 Klasifikasi data (pola) berdasarkan
baik pengetahuan yang sudah
dimiliki sebelumnya maupun
informasi yang bersifat statistik yg
diekstrak dari polas
(aims to classify data (patterns) based either on a
priori knowledge or on statistical information
extracted from the patterns)

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 Pemrosesan Data
(Data Processing)

 Bergantung pd perasaan (penglihatan

dan pendengaran)

 Banyak dipengaruhi oleh pengalaman

masa lalu, dik, nilai budaya, norma
organisasi, persyaratans peran,
spesifikasi data, dll.

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 ‘People construct their own version of
“reality” on the basis of information
provided by the senses …
but this sensory input is mediated by
complex mental processes that
determine which information is attended
to, how it is organised, and the meaning
attributed to it.’

- Richards J. Heuer Jr.

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 PARIS ONCE BIRD
IN THE IN A IN THE
THE SPRING A LIFETIME THE HAND

We tend to perceive what

we want to perceive
Gradual change can go unnoticed

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Mindsets can be resistant to change
– intelligence analysts must look at
data from all perspectives

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 Memahami Pola
(Seeing the Pattern)

 Using lots of different

pieces of data
(Induction - Mosaic Analogy)

 Using one recognisable

piece of data/concept
(Deduction - Medical Analogy)
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 Tampilan Data Visual
Visual Display of Correlated Data

 Plot data yang berhubungan dgn elements

suatu pola (Plot data in terms of the elements of a pattern)

 Amati dan cari bentuk polanya (Look for patterns)

 Plot kembali dgn gunakan teknik yg lain
Replot using different techniques

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 Tampilan Data Suara
Audio Display of Correlated Data

 Play data in time, freq, amplitude,

spatial & combination domains

 Listen for “tunes” or patterns

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 Konteks Data
Data Context

 Semua data mempunyai konteks

yang melekat pd dirinya (All data has
context attached)

 Plot data thd konteksnya (Plot data against

context)

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 Tiga area sbg pegangan
Three Areas to Grasp

 Look for new and emerging patterns

(amati polas baru dan sdg berkembang)

 Look for changes in normalcy

patterns (amati perubahan dalam polas yg
normal)

 Be familiar with existing patterns

(akrab dgn pola yang ada)

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 Elemen Pola
Elements of a Pattern

 Times
 Places
 People/Units
 Activities
 Sequences
 Triggers/Catalysts
 Combination
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 Karakteristik Pola
Characteristics of a Pattern

 Observable

 Recognisable

 Describable

 Exploitable

 Recurring
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 Mine Incidents - Vietnam 1967 - 68
35
1967
30
1968
25

20

15

10

0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

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 Mine Incidents - Vietnam 1967 - 68
35
1967
30
1968
25

20

15

10

0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Rice Labour De m and

MO N SO O N
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 10
15
20
25
30
35

0
5

JAN
OP PIN ARO O

O P PORTSEA

FEB MAR APR MAY

JUN
OP LYREBIRD
O P N OW RA
JUL
O P MAGN ETIC
O P ATH ERTO N
OP DIAMAN TIN A

OP SAN TA FE
OP GOO DW OOD
OP FORREST
OP KIN G HIT
OP BOU N DARY RIDG E
Mine Incidents - Vietnam 1967 - 68

AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1968
1967

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 Eksploitasi Pola
Exploiting the Pattern

 Explain current developments

(jelaskan perkembangan yg sdg blangsung)

 Predict future events

(prediksi kjadian masa depan)

 Determine trends (tentukan tren)

 Identification of the Problem
(identifikasi problem)

 Indicators and Warning (indikators dan

peringatan)
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 Perhatikan
Beware!

 “False” patterns (polas “palsu”)

 Overlaid patterns (polas yg tumpang tindih)

 Viewpoint alters presentation (cara/

sudut pandang bisa rubah presentasi)

 “Creeping Normalcy”

 Distorting data to match the pattern

(data yg terdistorsi tuk cocokan dgn pola)
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The Future?
Predictive Technology

 Data Mining

 System Modelling & Simulation

 Trend analysis & forecasting

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 Remember:
 Patterns are rarely exact
(pola jarang eksak/ pasti)

 Pattern Analysis is an intermediate

step in solving the problem - it is not
an endstate! (Analisa pola adalah langkah
antara dlm pselesaian masalah – bukan suatu
langkah akhir)

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PENGGUNAAN
DALAM MILITER
Conventional Operations

Counterinsurgency

Counter terror

Post conflict 29
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