1 Introduction to Climate Change Science

Marianella Crispin Cunya

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on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn
 Overview
2

OVERVIEW
Section
Section 11 Section
Section 22 Section
Section 33 Section
Section 44 Section
Section 55

Introduction
Introduction to
to Anthropogenic
Anthropogenic Observed
Observed Trends
Trends Projected
Projected Trends
Trends Sources
Sources ofof
Climate Change
Climate Change Drivers
Drivers of
of and
and Impacts of
Impacts of and
and Impacts of
Impacts of Scientific Data
Scientific Data
Science
Science Climate
Climate Change
Change Climate
Climate Change
Change Climate
Climate Change
Change

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Introduction to
to Climate
ClimateChange
ChangeScience
Science
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Section 1 Introduction to Climate Change

Science

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Module 1: Introduction to Climate Change Science
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 What Is Climate?
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Weather Climate

“What is happening “Average weather

in the atmosphere at over longer time
any given time” frames”

Source: World Meteorological Organization

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Section 1:
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Introduction to
to Climate
Climate Change
Change Science
Science
on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn
 Complexity of the Global
Climate System
5

Source: IPCC 2007, p96. Further information: WMO Website

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 What Is the Greenhouse Effect?
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Source: IPCC 2007. Further info: WMO Website

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 Natural Climate Fluctuations –
Example of El Niño and La Niña
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Source: NOAA. Further information: WMO Website

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 Climate Change and Global Warming
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Refers to the overall

warming of the planet,
Global Warming based on average
temperature over the entire
surface of the Earth

Refers to changes in
climate characteristics,
including temperature,
Climate Change humidity, rainfall, wind,
and severe weather events
over long term periods

Further information: WMO Website

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Introduction to
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Climate Change
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 Projected Change in Average Surface
Temperature
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Time Period: 1986-2005 to 2081-2100

Scenario RCP 2.6 Scenario RCP 8.5

Source: IPCC 2013, p20

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 Climate Change Has an Impact on:
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• Biodiversity, carbon storage,

Ecosystems habitats, …

Human systems • Agriculture, fresh water, health, …

Urban systems • Transport, buildings, lifestyle, …

• Energy, manufacturing, natural

Economic systems capital industries, …
• Equity, migration, peace and
Social systems conflict, …
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Section 1:
1: Introduction
Introduction to
to Climate
Climate Change
Change Science
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on Climate Change: UN CC:Learn
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Section 2 Anthropogenic Drivers of

Climate Change

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 Overview of Greenhouse Gases
Regulated under the Kyoto Protocol
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Greenhouse Gas Global Warming Potential % of Total Anthropogenic

(GWP) (over 100 years) GHG Emissions (2010)
Carbon dioxide (CO2) 1 76%
Methane (CH4) 25 16%
Nitrous oxide (N2O) 298 6%
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) 124-14,800 < 2%
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) 7,390-12,200 < 2%
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) 22,800 < 2%
Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) 17,200 < 2%

Source: Reproduced from IPCC 2007 and UNEP 2012

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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
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 Important Greenhouse Gases:
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
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 Most important greenhouse gas

(contributes ~64% to total radiative forcing
by long-lived GHGs)
 Half of CO2 emitted by human activities is
being absorbed in the biosphere and in the
oceans
 Rest remains in the atmosphere for
hundreds to thousands of years

Source: WMO 2013

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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
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 Important Greenhouse Gases:
Methane (CH4)
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 Second most significant greenhouse gas

(contributes ~18% to total radiative
forcing by long-lived GHGs)
 Approximately 40% of methane is
emitted into the atmosphere by natural
sources
 About 60% comes from human
activities
 Stays in the atmosphere for
approximately 12 years Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013

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 In Focus: The Carbon Cycle
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Source: UNEP

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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
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 Important Greenhouse Gases:
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
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 The third most significant greenhouse

gas (contributes ~6% to total radiative
forcing by long-lived GHGs)
 Stays in the atmosphere for
approximately 114 years
 Nitrous oxide is emitted into the
atmosphere from both natural (about
60%) and anthropogenic sources
(approximately 40%)
Source: IPCC 2007 and WMO 2013

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 Important Greenhouse Gases:
Fluorinated Gases
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 Global warming effect up to 23,000

times greater than carbon dioxide
 Stay in the atmosphere up to 50,000
years
 Three main groups: hydrofluorocarbons
(HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and
sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)
 Mainly developed as substitutes for
ozone-depleting substances
Source: IPCC 2007. Further info EPA,
EC
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Section 2: Anthropogenic Drivers of Climate Change
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Section 3 Observed Trends and Impacts

of Climate Change

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 Observed Surface Temperature
Anomaly (1850-2012)
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Globally averaged land and ocean

surface temperature

Each of the last three

decades has been
successively warmer
at the Earth’s surface
than any preceding
decade since 1850.

Source: IPCC 2013, p4

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 Observed Change in Annual
Precipitation Over Land
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Source: IPCC 2013, p6

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Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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 Observed Ocean Warming
(1950-2010)
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More than 60% of

the net energy
increase in the
climate system is
stored in the upper
ocean (period
1971-2010).

Source: IPCC 2013, p8

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Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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 Observed Sea Level Rise
(1900 to 2010)
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Over the period

1901 to 2010,
global mean sea
level rose by
0.19m.

Source: IPCC 2013, p8

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 Observed Decrease in Arctic Sea Ice
Extent (1900-2010)
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Source: IPCC 2013, p8

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 In Focus: Is Climate Change to Blame
for Extreme Weather Events?
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Number of Events

Source: UNEP
2009, p12.
Further info:
Year WMO Website

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Section 3: Observed Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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Section 4 Projected Trends and Impacts

of Climate Change

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 In Focus: Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs)
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 Set of four new scenarios defined by the scientific

community for the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report.
 Four RCPs include:
 one mitigation scenario leading to a very low forcing level
(RCP2.6),
 two stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6), and

 one scenario with very high greenhouse gas emissions

(RCP8.5).
 RCPs represent a range of 21st century climate policies.

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Section 4: Projected Trends and Impacts of Climate Change
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 Summary
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 Weather and climate are the results of complex interactions between

anthropogenic and natural factors.
 Evidence of global climate change include higher average temperatures,
changes in precipitation, ocean warming, ocean acidification, sea level
rise, decreasing sea ice, and changes in physical and biological systems.
 Observed climate change can be linked with the increase of greenhouse
gase concentrations in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution.
 Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is
likely to reach 4°C if no drastic mitigation actions are taken.
 Various sources of climate data exist that can support planning for climate
change.

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Additional Resources
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Section 5 Sources of Scientific Data

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 Important Reports Published by the
IPCC
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• First • Renewable • Guidance for • Climate

Special Reports on:

Technical Papers
Assessment Reports

Methodology Reports
assessment energy national change and
report (FAR) sources greenhouse water
• Second • Extreme gas • Implications
assessment events and inventories of proposed
report (SAR) disasters • Guidance for CO22
• Third • Emission assessing emissions
assessment scenarios impacts of limitations
report (TAR) climate • Technologie
• Aviation change
• Fourth s, policies
• Carbon • Land use,
assessment and
capture and land-use measures for
report (AR4) storage change and mitigating
• Fifth forestry climate
assessment change
report (AR5)

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 World Meteorological Organization (
WMO) – Global Climate Programmes
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 World Climate Programme (WCP)

 World Climate Research Programme

 Global Climate Observing System

 World Climate Services Programme

 Programme of Research on Climate Change

Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation
 Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme (AREP)
 Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
 Advisory Body: Commission for Climatology (CCI)

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 Useful Links
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IPCC Website WMO Climate Pages Global Framework F World Climate Progr
or Climate Services ( amme (WCP)
GFCs)

World Bank Climate NASA Global Climat ESA Climate Change NCAR Community
Change Knowledge P e Change Initiative Data Portal
ortal

Max Planck: The At The Guardian Climat The National Geogra UN CC:Learn
mosphere in the Eart e Change Pages phic - Global Warmin
h System g

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Additional
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 Recommended Readings
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 Cambridge University (2013).

Climate Change: Action, Trends and Implications for Business
 IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013, The Physcial
Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers
 UNEP (2009). Climate Change Science Compendium
 UNEP (2009).
Climate in Peril, A Popular Guide to the Latest IPCC Reports
 WMO (2013).
The Global Climate 2001–2010, A Decade of Climate Extremes

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 Main References
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 IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007 - Synthesis Report

 IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013, The Physcial
Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers
 UNEP (2009).
Climate in Peril, A Popular Guide to the Latest IPCC Reports
 UNEP (2012). The Emissions Gap Report 2012
 WMO (2012): Greenhouse Gas Bulletin
 WMO (2009). A History of Climate Activities
 WMO Website: Climate

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