Climate Change: impacts,

vulnerabilities and adaptation in the

Arab World

Global Warming (BIOL002)

Dr. Safa Baydoun
Faculty of Sciences
Beirut Campus
• The UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs) and other internal conventions highlight that
for the development to be sustainable it must be
resilient to growing risks from both climate change
and natural disasters.

• Of critical importance in the Arab region because:

– One of the world’s most water-scarce, food-
import dependent region.
– Has growing impacts from climate change
(particularly droughts) creating even greater
forms of social vulnerability.
 Arab region
• Arab region is among the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate
change
• Characterized by:
– Energy rich,
– water scarce,
– Food deficient
– Low precipitation,
– Frequent floods, droughts and extreme
temperatures;
– Rapid population and urban growth,
– political instability
– widespread poverty
 Implementing the Paris Agreement on
Climate Change
• In November 2016, the Paris Agreement (slide
below) on Climate Change was signed.

• From the Arab region, a total of 13 countries have

ratified the Paris Agreement to date. All countries
in the region have established their Nationally
Determined Contribution (NDCs).
 Paris Agreement
• The Paris Agreement
– Singed in 2016 under UN Framework Convention for Climate Chang (UNFCCC)
– Brings all nations to undertake efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects,
with enhanced support to assist developing countries to do so.
– Requires all Parties to develop nationally determined contributions (NDCs)
– Require all Parties to report regularly on their emissions of GHGs and on their
implementation efforts.

• Central aim:
– Strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global
temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels

– Pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

– Strengthen the ability of countries especially developing countries to deal with the
impacts of climate change.
 Nationally Determined Contribution
(NDCs )
• NDCs serve as the main basis to:
– Address vulnerability of food, land and water
resources to climate impacts,
– Building capacities for early warning systems ,
resilience of communities, to droughts, floods
and sea-level rise, and
– Addressing risks of climate change to the onset
of conflicts and displacement.
 Climate change Impact

• During the last decade Arab region saw

one of its most severe drought cycles in
the past century, leading to:
–Loss of livelihoods,
–High food prices,
–Economic constraints
Projected Climate Impacts in the Arab Region

• Climate is expected to change

throughout the Arab region towards
more drying conditions, variability in
precipitation, higher temperatures.
Expected climate changes and exposure in the Arab Countries
 Temperature
• According to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), mean annual temperatures in
East Africa and the Maghreb states are likely to
exceed 2°C with maximum projected increases
up to 6° C by the year 2100.
 Precipitation
• Overall, precipitation projections present
greater variability than temperature
projections.
• A reduction in precipitation, up to 40 percent, is
likely over North Africa by the end of the 21st
Century.
• Total precipitation and the frequency of wet
days have declined significantly across North
Africa.
 Sea level rise
• By the end of the century, climate change is
likely to cause global mean sea level to rise by
26 to 82 cm.
• Increased frequency of storm surges and
saltwater intrusion affecting water quality and
agricultural productivity in the low-lying coastal
regions.
 Natural hazards
• More natural disasters
• More frequent droughts due to increases in
humidity and temperature.
• Crop production will be also severely affected by
rainfall, which is becoming more intense in
volume but shorter in duration.
 Impacts and Fragilities:
Economy

• Climate change and poor land-water

management practices are negatively impacting
the key economic sectors in the region by:
– Increased food insecurity as a result of unsustainable
and inefficient agricultural practices and water
pollution.
– Increased the incidence and spread of epidemics and
other diseases putting additional burden on
economies.
 Impacts and Fragilities:
Food security
• Climate change is expected to impact the region’s
agriculture and food production systems, with
potentially severe impacts on food security, most
notably countries that depend on rainfed
systems.
• Crop yields are expected to drop by 30 percent
with a 1.5 to 2.5°C increase in temperature and
by 60 percent with a 3 to 4 °C increase, with
geographical variation and without considering
adaptation.
 Impacts and Fragilities:
Water security
• Impacts will vary across the region.
• In the last 10 years, groundwater levels
decreased by 1 to 2 m annually, depending
on rainfall.
• Groundwater exploitation mainly used for
agriculture has caused a deterioration of
water quality, most notably salinization.
 Impacts and Fragilities: Displacements
• Currently, over half of the world’s refugees
originate from the Arab region.
• Climate is predicted to cause:
– Increased migration to cities as a result of changes of
rainfall patterns and decreases agricultural productivity,
– Rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion into rivers
degrading agricultural land.
– Coastal erosion resulting from sea level rising is
expected to threaten industrial and touristic
infrastructure located near the coast.
 Impacts and Fragilities: Human health
• Human health is likely to be impacted directly and
indirectly by climate change.
• Increased prevalence of Heat-stress and vector
borne, and water borne diseases
• Decreases in water availability and food security
caused by a changing climate could further impact
human health.
 Impacts and Fragilities:
Gender aspects
• Women are likely to suffer disproportionally
from climate change,
– increased maternal mortality heat-stress,
– Increased gender-based violence after natural
disasters or conflicts.
– under high pressure to take over husbands’
activities on top of their own daily activities when
men move to cities to seek paid employment
when they lose their traditional livelihoods,
 Impacts and Fragilities:
Conflict
• Political conflicts and climate change
can create:
–armed conflicts as a result of
decreasing water and food security
will aggravate.
 Maladaptive practices in Arab Region

• 1. Overlooking the strong relationship

between poverty and poor management of
natural resources (lack of Sustainable
environmental management)
• 2. Little investment in maximizing agricultural
productivity through good practices such as:
– water efficient irrigation methods
– and growing drought-resistant crops.
• 3. Conflict in parts of the region that disrupts
both the collection and sharing of data
undermining informed decision-making.
• 4. Limited availability in knowledge transfer and
extension service support mechanisms to
promote sustainable land and water
management.
• 5. Over-exploitation of natural resources (e.g.
deforestation by the lack of restrictions on
grazing and biomass use).
• 6. Limited water resources infrastructure
• 7. Extremely weak Disaster Risk Reduction
capacities:
– Few drought and flood warnings to rural
populations;
– Lack of effectively relayed information on
best practices to reduce vulnerability to
extreme events;
– Very limited hydro-meteorological
equipment, such as weather and climate
stations.
Regional collaborations to build climate resilience

• The League of Arab States (LAS) is an

intergovernmental organization comprising 22 Arab
States.
• A new LAS “Department of Sustainable
Development and International Cooperation”
established in 2016 aiming at:
Enhancing coordination between Arab counties and -
establishing new partnerships to achieve the goals of such
.strategies
Developing capacities of the region to implement -
actions on Climate Change
 Way Forward and Recommendations
UN with national partners in the Arab region
will work to find climate solutions focusing
on :
• 1. Facilitating government capacities for
climate risk management and preparations
such as integrating principles of:
– Water management.
– Disaster risk reduction (DRR) by a systematic
approach to identifying, assessing and reducing the
risks of disasters.
• 2. Support growth in agriculture and
sustainable practices and use of good
technologies (e.g. rainwater harvesting);
• 3. Promoting water use efficiency practices
• 4. Strengthening national capacities to
produce climate data (e.g., climate,
weather, coastal);
• 5. Involving civil actors such NGOs and
others;
• 6. Promoting livelihoods to make them
less susceptible to climate shocks;
• 7. Increasing public and private
investment to boost productivity
• 8. Improving climate information data
collection and analysis and the
implementation of Early Warning
Systems.