POPULATION

FORECAST

BUILDING SERVICES-I

BY:
ANUSHA TIMILSINA
075BAR009
POPULATION FORECAST
Introduction

• Population forecasting is defined as the method of determining the expected population for a particular
design period of a water supply system with the help of the study and analysis of future events and available
records.
• Calculation or prediction of some future events as a result of study and analysis of available records or data.
• Factors affecting changes in population are:
 increase due to births
 decrease due to deaths
 increase/ decrease due to migration

• The population is an important parameter that is determined for the design of the water system of a
particular area.
• Design of water supply and sanitation scheme is based on the projected population of a particular city.

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 POPULATION FORECASTING METHODS
Two categories of
methods:
Short term methods include:
1. Arithmetic Progression
1. Short Term Methods
2. Geometric Progression
3. Iller Bankasi Method
2. Long Term Methods
4. Decreasing Rate of Growth method
5. Graphical Extension Method

Long term methods include:

1. Comparative Method
2. Ratio and Correlation Method
3. Component Method
3 4. Logistic Method
SHORT TERM METHODS FOR POPULATION
FORECASTING
1.Arithmetic Increase Method
2. Geometric Progression Method
3. Iller Bankasi Method
or Geometric Increase
Method
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• This method is applied to areas where it is found that
the rate of increase of population with time is
constant i.e. dP/dt = Constant.
• This method is suitable for large and old city with
considerable development.
Pn = Po + nX
• In this method the percentage increase in population from decade to decade is
assumed to remain constant.
• Geometric mean increase is used to find out the future increment in population.
• Since this method gives higher values and hence should be applied for a new
industrial town at the beginning of development for only few decades.
• This method is employed in a area where the population is rapidly increasing. 
• The incremental increase is determined for each decade from the past population
and the average value is added to the present population along with the average rate
of increase.
SHORT TERM METHODS FOR POPULATION
FORECASTING
• The method is applied to a city that owns a limiting
saturation population. In this type, the rate of growth
is a function of its population deficit.
4. Decreasing Rate of Growth Method

5.Graphical Extension Method

• In this method, the population of the past few decades is plotted in the graph
correctly following a proper scale.

• The obtained population curve is extended to obtain the future population.

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LONG TERM METHODS FOR POPULATION
FORECASTING • In this method the census populations of cities
already developed under similar conditions are
plotted.

• The curve of past population of the city under

consideration is plotted on the same graph.
1. Comparative method
• The curve is extended carefully by comparing with
the population curve of some similar cities having
the similar condition of growth.

2. Ratio and Correlation Method • The method works based on the concept that the ratio of the population of the
city studied compared to a larger group continues to change in the future similar
to the manner that has occurred in past years. .

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LONG TERM METHODS FOR POPULATION
FORECASTING • The big and metropolitan cities are generally not developed in
haphazard manner, but are planned and regulated by local
bodies according to master plan.

• The master plan is prepared for next 25 to 30 years for the city.
3. Master Plan Method According to the master plan the city is divided into various
zones such as residence, commerce and industry.

• The population densities are fixed for various zones in the

master plan.

• From this population density total water demand and

wastewater generation for that zone can be worked out.

• By this method it is very easy to access precisely the design

population.

• This method is used when the growth rate of population due to births, deaths and
migrations takes place under normal situation and it is not subjected to any extraordinary
4. Logistic method changes like epidemic, war, earth quake or any natural disaster, etc., and the population
follows the growth curve characteristics of living things within limited space and economic
opportunity.

• If the population of a city is plotted with respect to time, the curve so obtained under
7 normal condition looks like S-shaped curve and is known as logistic curve.
FORECAST THE POPULATION FOR 25 YEARS IN A SETTLEMENT WITH A CURRENT
POPULATION OF 50,000 PEOPLE.
Solution :
Using Geometric progression method;
The population of the place is 50,000 in the year 2020.
Let us assume the data as per the population growth rate of Nepal in the last few decades.
YEAR POPULATION GROWTH RATE
1990 2.5
2000 1.8
2010 0.48
2020 1.8

 Average growth rate:

So, after 25 years in 2045, the population will be :
=50000
=75183.5
 1 st 50822.50 Population

2nd 51658.53

3 rd 52508.31

4th 53372.07

5th 54250.05

6th 55142.46

7th 56049.55

8th 56971.57

9th 57908.75

10th 58861.35

11th 59829.62

12th 60813.81

13th 61814.20
Years

14th 62831.05

15th 63864.62

16th 64915.19

17th 65983.04

18th 67068.47

19th 68171.74

20th 69293.17

2 1st 70433.04

22nd 71591.66

2 3 rd 72769.35
POPULATION AT THE GROWTH RATE OF 1.645%

24th 73966.40

25th 75183.15
WATER DEMAND FOR THE SETTLEMENT
S.N Type of Buildings Minimum requirement per head
per day (litre)
1. Apartment Buildings 100
2. Auditorium (per seat) 15
3. Hospitals (including laundry) per bed
a) Number of beds <100 340
b) Number of beds >100 450
4. Cold Storage 45
5. Buildings Higher than 4-Storey (Commercial & Industrial) 45
6. Residences 100
7. Office 45
8. Hostels (including quarters for nurses etc.) 100
9. Hotels (per bed) 100
10. Restaurants (per seat) 50
11. Schools and colleges
a) Day schools 15
b) Boarding Schools 100
12. Cinemas, Theatre Halls, Concert hall (per seat) 15
13. Factories
a) With bathing facilities 45
b) Without bathing facilities 30
14. Terminal Stations (Bus and Railways) 15
15. Airports
a) International 70
b) Domestic 20
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 FOR DOMESTIC
PURPOSE
Assuming 100 litres per head in a day,
Total water demand in a day in the settlement will be 75184x100
=7,518,400 litres

ICE, COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL PURPOSE

For around 500 commercial buildings and 15,000 employees:
Assuming 45 litres per head in a day,
Total water demand in a day in the settlement will be 15000x45
=675,000 litres

FOR HOSPITAL PURPOSE

For 2 hospitals with more than 100 beds and 100 employees:
Assuming 450 litres per head in a day,
Total water demand in a day in the settlement will be 2x200x450
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=180,000 litres
 FOR AUDITORIUM
Assuming 15 litres per head in a day(for 600 seat),
Total water demand in a day in the settlement will be 15x600
=9,000 litres

OR RESTAURANTS
For around 20 restaurants with 30 seats each;
Assuming 50 litres per head in a day,
Total water demand in a day in the settlement will be 20x30x50
=30,000 litres

FOR SCHOOLS AND COLLEGES

For 4 day schools and 1 boarding school(500 students each):
Assuming 15 litres per head in a day in day school and 100 litres per head in boarding school,
Total water demand in a day in the settlement will be 4x500x15+1x500x100
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=80,000 litres