9-2 Basics of Probability

Unit 9 Probability & Mathematical Induction

Concepts and Objectives
 Basics of Probability (Obj. #33)
 Calculate the probability of an event

 Use the complement to calculate probability

 Calculate the probability of two or more events

 Calculate the binomial probability of an event

Basics of Probability
 The set S of all possible outcomes of a given experiment
is called the sample space of the experiment.
 Any subset of the sample space is called an event.

In a sample space with equally likely outcomes,

the probability of an event E, written PE, is the
ratio of the number of outcomes in sample space S
that belong to event E, nE, to the total number of
outcomes in sample space S, nS. That is,
n E 
P E 
n S 
Basics of Probability
 Example: A single die is rolled. Write each event in set
notation and give the probability of the event.
(a) the number showing is even

(b) the number showing is greater than 4

Basics of Probability
 Example: A single die is rolled. Write each event in set
notation and give the probability of the event.
(a) the number showing is even

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}  nS = 6
E = {2, 4, 6}  nE = 3
n E  3 1
P E   
n S  6 2
Basics of Probability
 Example: A single die is rolled. Write each event in set
notation and give the probability of the event.

(b) the number showing is greater than 4

E = {5, 6}  nE = 2
2 1
P E  
6 3
Basics of Probability
 If an event is certain to occur, then the probability will
be 1. If it is impossible for an event to occur, then the
probability is 0.
 Therefore, for any event E, PE will always be between
0 and 1 inclusive.
 The set of all outcomes in the sample space that do not
belong to event E is called the complement of E, written
E’. The probability of E’ is 1 – PE.
Basics of Probability
 Example: Find the probability of not drawing an ace
from a well-shuffled deck of cards.
Basics of Probability
 Example: Find the probability of not drawing an ace
from a well-shuffled deck of cards.

4 1
P  E   P  drawing an ace   
52 13
P  E '  1  P  E 
1 12
1 
13 13
Union of Two (or More) Events
 Since events are sets, we can use set operations to find the
union of two events.
 Suppose a fair die is rolled. Let H be the event “the result
is a 2,” and K the event “the result is an even number.”

H = {2} K = {2, 4, 6} H  K = {2, 4, 6}

1 1 1
P H  P K   P H K  
6 2 2

Notice that P  H   P  K   P  H  K 
Union of Two or More Events

For any events E and F,

P  E or F   P  E  F   P  E   P  F   P  E  F 

 From our previous problem:

P H K   P H  P K   P H K 
1 1 1 1
   
6 2 6 2
Union of Two or More Events
 Example: Suppose two fair dice are rolled. Find the
probability that the first die shows a 2, or the sum of the
two dice is 6 or 7.
Union of Two or More Events
 Example: Suppose two fair dice are rolled. Find the
probability that the first die shows a 2, or the sum of the
two dice is 6 or 7.

A = {2, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 4, 2, 5, 2, 6}
B = {1, 5, 1, 6, 2, 4, 2, 5, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 2, 4, 3,
5, 1, 5, 2, 6, 1}
6 1 11 2 1
P  A   P B  P A B  
36 6 36 36 18
1 11 1 5
P A B    
6 36 18 12
Binomial Probability
 A binomial experiment is an experiment that consists of
repeated independent trials with only two outcomes in
each trial, success or failure. Let the probability of
success in one trial be p. Then the probability of failure
is 1 – p, and the probability of exactly r successes in n
trials is given by
n r
r   
nr
p 1  p
 

 An easier calculator method is  and enter n, p, and r.

Binomial Probability
 Example: An experiment consists of rolling a die 10
times. Find the probability that in exactly 4 of the rolls,
the result is a 3.
Binomial Probability
 Example: An experiment consists of rolling a die 10
times. Find the probability that in exactly 4 of the rolls,
the result is a 3.
1
n  10, p  , r  4
6
P = .054266
Homework
 College Algebra (brown book)
 Page 1061: 9-24 (3s), 33

 Turn in: 15, 18, 24, 35

 Classwork: Algebra & Trigonometry (green book)

 Page 666: 2-6