The Cyber-War on Democracy

The Cyber-War on Democracy

Hannah Derwey
29 November 2021
INTL-407-001
The Escalating Threat of Cyber Attacks on Elections
This presentation will focus on the consequences of digital attacks on democratic elections, and
examine examples of government control on internet and social media access as a means to mislead
voters with false information and inhibit their ability to freely educate themselves through the use
of the internet.

Objectives That Will Be Covered:

● What is Cyber Election Meddling and What Are Its Impacts On Elections?
● Foreign Cyber Influence on Elections
● Example One: Russia-U.S. Example
● Domestic Cyber Influence on Elections
● Example Two: Authoritarianism in Africa
● The Future Role of Social Media in Democracy
 What is Cyber Election Meddling?
“Cyber election meddling can be defined as a cyber operation resulting in subtle or
blatant campaigns of (dis)information aimed at influencing the electoral vote and
its outcome through media gatekeeping and the spread of fake news.” (Rotondo et al., 2018)

● Represents a violation of the principle of non-intervention in the internal

affairs of a state, as “the electoral process is the most significant moment
of expression of domestic jurisdiction” (Rotondo et al., 2018, P. 212)

● Infringes on the “inalienable right of a State to freely determine its own

political system without outside intervention, interference, subversion,
coercion or threat in any form whatsoever” (Rotondo et al., 2018, P. 216)
freedomhouse.org
 Twitter/Facebook Are Platforms for Election Meddling

● Social media sites like Twitter and Facebook

employ an algorithm to analyze words, phrases, or
hashtags to create a list of topics sorted in order of
popularity.

● According to a 2011 study on social media, a

trending topic “will capture the attention of a large
audience for a short time” and thus “contributes to
agenda setting mechanisms.” (Prier, 2017, P. 4)

(louisville.edu)
 How is Cyber Warfare Impacting Democracy?
Cyber Warfare is impacting democracy in three distinct ways: “propaganda, news, and
information sharing.” (Prier, 2017, P. 50-85)
● A propaganda message is achieved “by tapping into an
existing narrative, then amplifying that message with
a network of ‘bot’ accounts to force the social media
platform algorithm to recognize it as a trending topic.”
(Prier, 2017, P. 50-85)
● We will examine two case studies to demonstrate how
government agencies can “employ time-tested
propaganda techniques to yield far-reaching results.”
(Prier, 2017, P. 50-85)
● First case study: Observes Russia as a foreign influence
on the U.S. election
● Second case study: Analyses authoritarianism in Africa
and domestic attacks on elections
Foreign Cyber Warfare - Meddling in Elections
● ●
Cyber election-meddling activities are
carried out by foreign states to
influence the electorate of a target
state through the diffusion of “fake
news” or “alternative truths,” via
social media (Rotondo et al., 2018, P.
206) ● Puts target state in a situation of coercion
● Online news services are altered in
favour of a particular party, false
news is spread
Coercive interference designed to deprive
another State of its freedom of choice...to
force [the] State to act in an in- voluntary
manner or involuntarily refrain from acting
in a particular way. (Rotondo et al., 2018, P.
206)
“unbeknownst to it” (Rotondo et al., 2018, P.
206)
 Case Study: Russia-U.S. Election

● From 2015 to 2016, Russian cyber hackers took

a logical path from small stories designed to
create panic and sow seeds of doubt to a social
media machine that constantly spread
misinformation
● The 2016 election proved that narrative
manipulation through social media cyber
operations is the current embodiment of taking
the fight directly to the people. (Prier, 2017, P. 75)

(Prier, 2017, P. 75)

 Russia - 2016 U.S. Election

❖
In January 2017, the US intelligence community (NSA, CIA and FBI)
concluded in a report that the “influence campaign” in the US
presidential election was ordered by the Russian President Vladimir
Putin “to help President-elect Trump’s election chances.” (Riaz Shad,
2018, P. 27)
❖
The Russian “information warfare” objectives: “collection of sensitive
information through cyber operations, information propaganda to
manipulate public opinion, and exploitation of information to
undermine government authorities”. (Riaz Shad, 2018, P. 27)
❖
According to the US intelligence officials, Moscow- backed influence (Financial Times)
operation aimed to discredit Hillary Clinton and help Donald Trump
win the presidential elections.
 Impact of Russian Interference
❖ Hillary Clinton and many Americans,
including the former director of the FBI still
believe that the Russian influence operation
“had a profound effect on the US presidential
election outcome”
❖ Resignations of DNC chairperson, Debbie
Wasserman Schultz, and most of her deputies
❖ The Obama administration responded to
Russia’s interference with the expulsion of
thirty five Russian diplomats, closure of two
facilities and targeted economic sanctions
(Riaz Shad, 2018, P. 28)
 What is Domestic Cyber Warfare?

❖Digital technologies have gone from liberating citizens and overthrowing dictators to
being used as tools of oppression and manipulation
❖Independent watchdog organisation Freedom House found that the Internet is
becoming less free globally, and democracy itself is withering under its influence.
❖Internet is now being used to disrupt democracies as easily as it was used to
destabilise dictatorships
❖With populist politics on the rise, “governments around the world have become
emboldened in their efforts to tighten control over citizens’ data and use claims of
‘fake news’ to suppress dissent.”

(GOPALDAS, 2019, P. 2)
 Example: African Authoritarianism
❖Recent trends of authorities closing the online realm for
political expression have stoked fears that social media
and big data will be harnessed for corrupt purposes
(Zimbabwe’s 2019 internet shutdown, Togo’s 2017
internet shutdown)
❖South African journalist Ferial Haffajee argues that social
media platforms have been weaponized by politicians to
silence journalists
❖Although connectivity is increasing, it remains
underdeveloped across the continent and in countries
where vote share remains largely rural. Restricting access
to information is therefore a far more effective tool of
incumbent governments. (African Arguments)
(GOPALDAS, 2019, P. 6-10)
(GOPALDAS, 2019, P. 60)
 Impact on Democracy in Africa
According to the 2018 Ibrahim Index for African Governance,
governance trends show a worrying trajectory; “the initial upward
trend in democracy has reversed into decline in 27 countries.”
(GOPALDAS, 2019, P. 6-10)

Insignificant progress in the categories of transparency and

accountability as well as participation and human rights, exposes the
democratic shortcoming between the continent’s leaders and those they
lead (GOPALDAS, 2019, P. 6-10)

Reveals that Africa’s old leaders are simply learning to use new tricks
(social media and news platforms) to undermine their electorates,
through tactics like misinformation campaigns and internet shutdowns
Social Media Role in Democracy – A Force for Good or Evil?
● Propaganda is a powerful tool that, when used
effectively, has been proven capable of
manipulating populations on a massive scale
● Using social media to take command of the trend
makes the spread of propaganda easier than ever
before
● Social media companies are taking steps to combat
malicious use
● Facebook has been at the forefront of tech companies
taking action to increase awareness of fake news
● “He who controls the trend will control the narrative
— and, ultimately, the narrative controls the will of
the people.”

(Prier, 2017, P. 85)

Works Cited
❖ GOPALDAS, R. (2019). (Rep.). South African Institute of International Affairs.
doi:10.2307/resrep25956

❖ Prier, J. (2017). Commanding the Trend: Social Media as Information Warfare. Strategic Studies
Quarterly, 11(4), 50-85. Retrieved March 11, 2021, from
http://www.jstor.org.proxy.lib.pdx.edu/stable/26271634

❖ Dr. Muhammad Riaz Shad. (2018). Cyber Threat in Interstate Relations: Case of US-Russia
Cyber Tensions. Policy Perspectives, 15(2), 41-55. Retrieved March 11, 2021, from
https://www-jstor-org.proxy.lib.pdx.edu/stable/10.13169/polipers.15.2.0041

❖ Rotondo, A., & Salvati, P. (2019). Fake News, (Dis)information, and the Principle of
Nonintervention: Scope, limits, and possible responses to cyber election interference in times of
competition. The Cyber Defense Review, 209-224. doi:10.2307/26846129