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Probability

is the chance that something will happen. The words such as chance, likelihood, possibility

and proportions have similar meanings as probability. Probability is a quantitative measure

of uncertainty, which is quite commonly used, in statistical inferences

Random Experiment:
Any process whose result cannot be predicted with certainty.

outcome
is a possible result of a probability experiment

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 sample space:
A list of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
Experiment: Tossing of single coin S={H,T} n(S)=2
Experiment: Tossing of two coins S={HH, HT, TH,TT} n(S)=4

Experiment: Tossing of three coins S={HHH, HHT ,HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
Experiment: Throwing of single dice S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Experiment: Throwing of two dice  (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) 
 
 ( 2,1) ( 2,2) ( 2,3) ( 2,4) ( 2,5) ( 2,6) 
 (3,1) (3, 2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6) 
S  
 ( 4,1) ( 4,2) ( 4,3) ( 4,4) ( 4,5) ( 4,6) 
 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6) 
 
 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6, 4) (6,5) (6,6) 
 

S={H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6

xperiment: Tossing of a coin and
rowing of a dice T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6} 3
Probability
Impossible Unlikely Equal Chances Likely Sure

0 0.5 1
0% 50% 100%

½
Formula :
n( A)
P ( A) =
n( S )
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Event:
Any collection of outcomes from a probability experiment i.e
A sub set of a sample space. Events are represented by A, B, C etc
e.g
A=Number on dice is greater than 4

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 Example:-A fair coin is tossed three times. What is the probability that
S={HHH, HHT ,HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
n( A) 7
(i) At most two head appears P ( A) =
n( S )
=
8
n( A) 7
(ii) At least one tail appears P ( A) =
n( S )
=
8

n( A) 3
(iii) Exactly two head appears. P ( A) = =
n( S ) 8
n( A) 0
(iv) Four heads appear P ( A) = = =0
n( S ) 8

n( A) 4
(v) More heads than tails P ( A) = =
n( S ) 8
n( A) 0
P( A) = = =0
(vi) Equal number of heads and tails n( S ) 8 6
 Binomial Probability Distribution
This distribution is for a discrete random variable which can have only two values-success
or failure such as Head or Tail , Male or Female, Pass or Fail, Good or Defective
Conditions for using Binomial distribution
i) The experiment consists of “n” repeated trials.

ii) Each trial has only two outcomes e.g. yes/no, Head/tail, success /failure.
iii) The probability of success of each trial remains fixed from trial to trial.
iv) The trials are statistically independent i.e. outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome of any other trial.

X=Number of success

we can find the Probability of X successes in n n=Total number of trials

trials P=Probability of success in a single trial

Binomial Formula
n x
(q=1-p= Probability of failure)
P( X  x)  C p q n
x
x
x  0,1, 2, , n
n and p are called parameters 7
Example(1) Suppose that 80% of adults with allergies report symptomatic relief
with a specific medication. If the medication is given to 10 new patients with
allergies, what is the probability that it is effective in exactly seven?
X= number of patients relief with medication 0, 1, 2 3,4 . . . 10
n= 10
p=Probability of a patient to get relief with medication=0.80

Binomial Formula
n x
P( X  x)  C p q n
x
x
x  0,1, 2,  , n

10  7
P ( X  7)  C (0.8) (0.2) 10
7
7
 0.2013
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Example(2) The likelihood that a patient with a heart attack dies of the attack is
0.04 (i.e., 4 of 100 die of the attack).
Suppose we have 5 patients who suffer a heart attack, what is the probability
that all will survive?
0, 1, 2 . . . 5
X=Number of patients die with heart attack
n=5
P=Probability of a patient die with heart attack=0.04

50
P( X  0)  C (0.04) (0.96)
5
0
0
 0.8154
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Example(3) In a family of 11 children, what is the probability that there will be
more boys than girls?

X=Number of boys in family

n=11  X  p
P=Probability of a boy in family =0.5 6 0.2256
7 0.1611
Binomial Formula 8 0.0806
n x
P( X  x)  C p q n
x
x
x  0,1, 2, , n 9 0.0269
10 0.0054
By using calculater
11 0.0005
11
P( X  6)   C  0.5  0.5
11
x
x 11 x
 0.5 0.5000
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Example: (4) A biologist estimates that the chance of germination for a type of bean seed is
0.7. A student was given 6 seeds. What are the probabilities that he gets

X=Number of seeds germinated 0, 1, 2 3,4 . . . 6

n=6
P=Probability of a seed germination =0.7

(a) All seeds germinated P ( X  6)  C66 (0.7)6 (0.3) 6 6  0.1176

6 1
(b) Just one seed not germinated P ( X  5)  C5
6
(0.7) 5
(0.3)  0.3025

(c) At most 4 seed germinated

By using calculater
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P( X  4)   Cx6  0.7 x  0.36 x  0.5798
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Example: (5) Suppose individuals with a certain gene have a 0.70 probability of eventually
contracting a certain disease. If 10 individuals with the gene participate in a lifetime study, find
the probability that X=Number of individuals with disease
I. Exactly 8 will have certain disease n=10
II. At leat 8 will have certain disease p=prob. of a person contracting the disease = 0.70
III. At most 6 will have certain disease
IV. Between 5 to 7, both inclusive X=0,1,2,3,4, 5, 6 . . . 10
V. More than half will have certain disease

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Example(6) If a couple decides to have three offspring, what is the probability
that 2 will be boys

X= number of boys
n= 3
p=Probability of a boy=0.50

Binomial Formula
n x
P( X  x)  C p q n
x
x
x  0,1, 2,  , n
31 3
P( X  3)  C (0.5) (0.5)
3
2
2
 0.375 
8

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Example (7) Consider a male with genotype AA and a female with genotype
Aa. What is the probability that 6 of their 7 offspring will have genotype Aa?
X= number of offspring with genotype Aa A A
n= 7
p=Probability of an offspring with genotype Aa
A AA AA
=0.50 a aA aA
7 6
P( X  6)  C (0.5) (0.5)
7
6
6
 0.0547

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If p=0.001 and n=50 the calculate P(X=2) by binomial and Poisson formula

Binomial Formula :
x n x
P( X  x)  C p q n
x
50  2
 C  0.001  0.999
50
2
2
 0.0012
Poisson Formula :
  np  0.05
e   x
P ( X  2) 
x!
0.05 2
e (0.05)
  0.0012
2! 15
 Poisson Probability Formula
Conditions:

a) When all conditions of binomial are fulfill along with number of trials is large
(n > 20) and probability of success is small (p <0.05)
b) When parameter of poisson is given
Parameter:
Average =µ
Formula:


e  x
P( X  x)  x  1, 2, 3 n
x!
Example(6) The likelihood that a patient with a heart attack dies of the attack is
0.04 (i.e., 4 of 100 die of the attack).
Suppose we have 500 patients who suffer a heart attack, what is the probability
that 50 will die?
X=Number of patients die with heart attack
n=500
0, 1, 2 . . . 500
P=Probability of a patient die with heart attack=0.04
500 50
P( X  50)  C 500
50
50
(0.04) (0.96) ?
As p < 0.05 and n > 20 so Poisson is appropriate
X=Number of patients die with heart attack
U=mean number of patient die with heart attack =500 × 0.04=20
20
e  20 50
9
P ( X  50)   7.63  10
50! 17
500

e  x
X=Number of babies with blood disease
P ( X  x)  x  1, 2,3 500
n=500 x!
p=0.001
 =500  0.001=0.5

0.5
e  0.5
2
P( X  2)   0.078
2!

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X=Number of defective components
n=500 X=0,1,2,3,4, 5, 6 . . . 500
p=0.005
 =500  0.005=2.5

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X=Number of bottales unusable
n=100
p=0.02 X=0,1,2,3,4, 5, 6 . . . 100
 =100  0.02=2
2
5
2e x
P ( X  5)    0.9834
x 0 x!
P ( X  5)  1  P ( X  5)
1  0.9834  0.0166
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X=Number of patients that develop illness
n=1000
p=0.005 X=0,1,2,3,4, 5, 6 . . . 1000
 =1000  0.005=5
e 5  5 x
4
P ( X  4)    0.4405
x 0 x!
P ( X  5)  1  P ( X  4)
1  0.4405  0.5595
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 X=Number of bacteria per ml of liquid
 =Average number of bacteria per ml of liquid=1.1 per ml

1.1 X=0,1,2 ,3,4, 5, 6 . . .

e  1.1 x
P ( X  2)   0.9004
x!
P ( X  2)  1  P ( X  2)
 1  0.9004  0.0996 23
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Example: Calculate the probability that there will be more than 12 infected people by
COVID-19 in one hour, if a total of 204 new cases are recorded a day.
X = Number of infected people per hour
U=Average Number of infected people per hour (204/24=8.5)
X = 0 ,1 ,2 ,3,4 . . 12, 13,14, . . .
e 8.5 (8.5) x
12
P ( X  12)  1    0.0909
0 x!

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 Standard Variable
• A variable that has mean “0” and Variance “1” is called standard
variable
• Values of standard variable are unit-less
• Construction
Varable  Mean of variable
Z
Standard deviationof variable

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 2 2 X 
X 
32
8
X (X  X ) Z (Z  Z ) n 4
54
S x2   13.5
3 25 -1.3624 1.8561 4
S x  3.67
6 4 -0.5450 0.2970
X  X X 8
11 9 0.81741 0.6682 Z 
Sx 3.67
12 16 1.0899 1.1879
Z
 Z
0
32 54 0 4.009 n
4.009
Sz 
2
1
4

Variable Z has mean “0” and variance “1” so Z is a standard variable

Standard Score at X  3
X  X 38
Z   1.3624
Sx 3.67 27
 Normal Distribution
Mean : m
Appropriate: Parameters: 2
Continuous data that is normal(Bell shape) Var :s

Formula : Formula :
1 1æ X - mö2 X- m 1 2
- ç ç ÷
÷
- ¥ < X<¥ Z= s 1
2Õ s 2 e 2 çè s ø ÷
e
- Z
2 - ¥ < Z< ¥
2Õ

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(i) P(Z ≤ 2.5) Area under the normal curve (iv) P(1.5 ≤ Z ≤ 2.5)
P(2.5)-P(1.5)
P(2.5)=0.9938 =0.0606

2.5 1.5 2.5

(ii) P(Z ≤- 2.5) (v) P(-1.5 ≤ Z ≤ 2.5)

P(-2.5)=0.0062 P(2.5)-P(-1.5)
=0.9270
-2.5
-1.5 2.5
(iii) P(Z ≥ - 2.5)
(vi) P(-2.5 ≤ Z ≤ -1.5)

R(-2.5) =0.9938 P(-1.5)-P(-2.5)

=0.0606
-2.5
-2.5 -1.5
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Example: The average cholesterol content of a certain brand of eggs is 215 milligrams, and
the standard deviation is 15 milligrams. Assume the variable is normally distributed.
If a single egg is selected, find the probability that
X = cholesterol content of an egg
µ = Mean cholesterol content of eggs=215
σ = Standard deviation of cholesterol content of eggs=15
a) The cholesterol content will be greater than 220 milligrams P ( X  220)
220  215
P ( Z  0.3333)  R (0.3333)  0.3695 Z
15
 0.3333

P ( X  225)
b) The cholesterol content will be less than 225 milligrams
225  215
Z  0.6667
P ( Z  0.6667)  P(0.6667)  0.7475 15
P (200  X  230)
c) The cholesterol content will be between 200 and 230 milligrams 200  215
Z   1
P (1  Z  1) 15
230  215
P (1)  P (1)  0.6827 Z 
15
 1
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Example: If systolic blood pressure of adults are normally distributed with mean systolic
blood pressure 120 millimeters of mercury (mm Hg) and the standard deviation is 5.6.
If an individual is selected, find the probability that the individual’s blood pressure will be
between 120 and 121.8 mm Hg.

X = Blood Pressure of an adult

µ = Mean blood pressure of adults =120
σ = Standard deviation of blood pressure of adults= 5.6

P (120  X  121.8)
120  120
Z  0
5.6
121.8  120
Z   0.3214
5.6

P (0  Z  0.3214)
P (0.3214)  P (0)  0.12605
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