WEEK 6: CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAMS

DIAGRAPRACTICAL
STEPS FOR CREATING CAUSAL
LOOP DIAGRAMS
Step 1
Start with a problem – characterize it in simple
terms such that it would be clear to all who have
even peripheral understanding of it. What is
wrong? What is it you don’t like? What is the
root source of the problem?

Simulation & Modeling BCS/BCE 2

 STEP 2

Begin defining the causes of the problem. Start

with a fact in the loop. State it in sentences such
that there is a relationship between cause and
effect. The reason OR staff are dissatisfied is
because too much overtime is being incurred.
There is always a noun in the sentence.

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 STEP 3

Each cause becomes an effect of the next. To

find a cause, ask, Why. To find out the effect,
ask, what happens. It’s a probing process of
Why’s. And when you discover a why, you ask,
well what happens next. Free hand the loops
with the sentence at both ends of the loop.
Directional relation of the loops goes from
Cause to Effect.

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 STEP 4

Show relation between Cause to Effect as

reinforcing (+) or negative (-). This does not
indicate good or bad it just means as the cause
goes intensifies, effects does too (+) and as
cause diminishes, effect does also (-).

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 STEP 5

• Seek out systems and sub systems (series of loops

that feed into each other) of loops. If a subsystem
of loops is reinforcing place a notation: The set of
loops is completely reinforcing.

• A negative or balancing loop (-) is referred to as a

"goal seeking" loop. There is a mechanism in this
loop that is trying to maintain some level of
stability.
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 STEP 6

Distinguish between perceived and real facts.

Graph over time to better characterize them.

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 STEP 7

To begin reducing an effect of a cause, take a

loop out and ask: if this effect were ‘fixed’ or did
not matter what could be done to lessen its
impact on the loop. This entertains possible
solutions. By lessening or eliminating any arrow
in the loop, you make an impact on the overall
behavior of the system.

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 POPULATION MODEL

PRACTICAL :
EXAMPLE TWO
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 A single-sector Exponential growth Model
• Consider a simple population with infinite resources--
food, water, air, etc. Given, mortality information in
terms of birth and death rates, what is this
population likely to grow to by a certain time?
• Over a period of 200 years, the population is
impacted by both births and deaths. These are, in
turn functions of birth rate norm and death rate
norm as well as population.
• A population of 1.6 billion with a birth rate norm of .
04 and a death rate norm of .028

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 Let’s Begin by Listing Quantities
• Population
• Births
• Deaths
• Birth rate norm
• Death rate norm

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 SFDs

Birth rate norm

BRN Birth rate BR

Population P

Death rate norm Death rate DR

DRN

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Questions
• Transform the stock and flow diagram below into a causal loop
diagram. Clearly showing both negative and positive feedback loop

Birth rate norm

BRN Birth rate BR

Population P

Death rate norm Death rate DR

DRN
Question
• Explain the benefits of using causal loop
diagrams
Reading List
1. Louis G. Birta and Gilbert Arbez. Modelling and Simulation. 2019.
Available at:
• https
://campusvirtual.univalle.edu.co/moodle/pluginfile.php/1167280/mo
d_resource/content/1/Modelling_and_Simulation_Book.PDF
2. MCA 504 Modelling and Simulation. Available at:
• http://www.ddegjust.ac.in/studymaterial/mca-5/mca-504.pdf
3. Christopher A. Chung. SIMULATION MODELING HANDBOOK. 2017.
Available at:
• http://read.pudn.com/downloads219/ebook/1028987/Simulation_M
odeling_Handbook.pdf
video
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfNtckLrB_Q
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eM3Xzu8sr-8