Sampling : Error and bias

Sampling definitions

 Sampling universe
 Sampling frame
 Sampling unit
 Basic sampling unit or elementary unit
 Sampling fraction
 Respondent
 Survey subject
 Unit of analysis
Sampling types

Two basic categories of sampling

 Probability sampling
• Also called formal sampling or random sampling
 Non-probability sampling
• Also called informal sampling
Probability sampling

What is probability sampling?

A selection of elements in a
population, such that every element
has a known, non-zero probability of
being selected.
Types of probability sampling

 Simple random sampling (SRS)

 Systematic random sampling
 Stratified sampling
 Cluster sampling
 Multi-stage sampling
Questions for sampling design

 Presampling choices
• What is the nature of the study: exploratory,
descriptive, analytical?
• What are the outcomes of interest?
• What are the target populations?
• Do you want estimates for subpopulations or just
for the entire population?
• How will the data be collected?
• Is sampling necessary and appropriate?
Questions for sampling design

 Sampling choices
• What listing will be used as the sampling frame?
• What is the desired precision?
• What type of samping will be done?
• Will the probability of selection be equal or
unequal?
• What is the sample size?
Questions for sampling design

 Postsampling choices
• How can the effect of nonresponse be assessed?
• Is weighted analysis necessary?
• What are the confidence limits for the major
estimates?
But…

Result from survey is never

exactly the same as
the actual value in the population

WHY?
 Components of total error

Point True
estimate population
from survey value
40% 50%

Total error
Prevalence
0% 100%

Nonsampling Sampling
bias error
Sampling bias
Nonsampling bias

 Is present even if sampling and analysis done

correctly
 Would still be present if survey measured outcome
in ENTIRE sampling frame

In sum, you have either sampled the wrong

people or screwed up your measurements!
Nonsampling bias

 Types:
• Sampling frame is not equal to population to which
you want to generalize (sampling universe)
• Sampling frame out of date
• Non-response among sampling units in sampling frame
• Measurement error
• Tape incorrectly fixed to height board
• Scale consistently reads low by 0.5 kg
• Failure to remove heavy clothing before weighing
• Misleading questions
• Recall bias
Nonsampling bias

Source of bias Prevention or cure

Sampling frame out of date Use current sampling frame
Limit generalizations

Non-response Minimize non-response

Use various statistical
methods to weight data

Measurement error Standardize instruments

Write clear & simple
questions
Train survey workers
Supervise survey workers
Sampling bias

 Selection of nonrepresentative sample, i.e., the

likelihood of selection not equal for each sampling
unit
 Failure to weight analysis of unequal probability
sample

In sum, you have not sampled people with equal

probability and you have not accounted for this
in your analysis!
Sampling bias

 Examples
• Nonrepresentative sample
• Selecting youngest child in household
• Choosing households close to the road
• Using a different sampling fraction in different
provinces
• Failure to do statistical weighting
Sampling bias

Source of bias Prevention or cure

Nonrepresentative sampling ALWAYS ask yourself "Will
this choice enhance
representativeness or
reduce it"?
Calculate the probabilities of
selection

Failure to do weighting Apply appropriate statistical

weights if selection
probabilities unequal
Sampling error

 Difference between survey result and population

value due to random selection of sample
 Influenced by:
• Sample size
• Sampling scheme
Unlike nonsampling bias and sampling bias, it
can be predicted, calculated, and accounted for.
Sampling error

 Measures of sampling error:

• Confidence limits
• Standard error
• Coefficient of variance
• P values
• Others
 Use these measures to:
• Calculate sample size prior to sampling
• Determine how sure we are of result after
analysis
Bias and sampling error

Nonsampling bias
Bias
Sampling bias

Sampling error Sampling error

In sum…
Bias
 Includes nonsampling bias
and sampling bias
 Is due to mistakes which
can be avoided
 Cannot be precisely
measured
 Control and prevention
requires careful attention
Sampling error
 Is unavoidable if sampling
< 100% of population
 Can be controlled by
selecting appropriate
sample size and sampling
method
 Can be precisely
calculated after-the-fact
Essential concepts

Bias & Accuracy

Sampling error & Precision

Accuracy

What is accuracy?
The degree to which a measurement, or an
estimate based on measurements, represents
the true value of the attribute that is being
measured.

Last. A Dictionary of Epidemiology. 1988

In short, obtaining results close to the TRUTH.

Accuracy

Associated terms:
 Validity
Precision

What is precision?
Precision in epidemiologic measurements
corresponds to the reduction of random error.

Rothman. Modern Epidemiology. 1986.

In short, obtaining similar results with

repeated measurement
Precision

Associated terms:
 Reliability
 Reproducability
Accuracy vs. precision

Accuracy: obtaining results close to truth

Survey 1

Survey 2

Survey 3

Real
population
value
 Accuracy vs. precision

Precision: obtaining similar results with repeated

measurement (may or may not be accurate)
Accuracy vs. precision

Poor precision (from small sample size) with

reasonable accuracy (without bias):
Accuracy vs. precision

Good precision (from small sample size) with

reasonable accuracy (without bias):
Accuracy vs. precision

Good precision (from large sample size), but with

poor accuracy (with bias):
In sum…

 Sampling error
• Difference between survey result and population value due to
random selection of sample
• Greater with smaller sample sizes
• Induces lack of precision
 Bias
• Difference between survey result and population value due to
error in measurement, selection of non-representative sample or
other factors
• Due to factors other than sample size
• Therefore, a large sample size cannot guarantee absence of bias
• Induces lack of accuracy, even with good precision
Usual situation after a survey

Result of single survey

95% confidence limits
Usual situation after a survey

Result of single survey

95% confidence limits
 Usual situation after a survey

Result of single survey

95% confidence limits

 Usual situation after a survey

 How can you tell which situation you have?

Result of single survey Result of single survey
95% confidence limits 95% confidence limits
Precision, bias, and sample size

Precision vs. bias

 Larger sample size increases precision
• It does NOT guarantee absence of bias
• Bias may result in very incorrect estimate
• If little sampling error, may have confidence in
this wrong estimate
 Quality control is more difficult the larger the
sample size
 Therefore, you may be better off with smaller
sample size, less precision, but much less
bias.