CHAPTER FIVE

CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION

Chap 5-1
 Continuous Probability
Distributions
 A continuous random variable is a variable that can
assume any value on a continuum (can assume an
uncountable number of values)
 thickness of an item

 time required to complete a task

 temperature of a solution

 height

 These can potentially take on any value, depending only

on the ability to measure precisely and accurately.

Chap 5-2
 The Normal Distribution
Properties

‘Bell Shaped’
 Symmetrical f(X)
 Mean, Median and Mode are

equal σ
 Location is characterized by the
μ
mean, μ Mean
 Spread is characterized by the = Median
= Mode
standard deviation, σ
 The random variable has an

infinite theoretical range: - to +

Chap 5-3
Chap 5-4
 The Standardized Normal
Distribution

 Any normal distribution (with any mean and

standard deviation combination) can be
transformed into the standardized normal
distribution (Z).
 Need to transform X units into Z units.
 The standardized normal distribution has a mean of
0 and a standard deviation of 1.
Z ~ N(0,1)

Chap 5-5
Chap 5-6
 The Standardized Normal
Distribution

 Translate from X to the standardized normal (the

“Z” distribution) by subtracting the mean of X and
dividing by its standard deviation:

Xμ
Z
σ

Chap 5-7
 The Standardized Normal
Distribution: Shape
 Also known as the “Z” distribution
 Mean is 0 and standard deviation is 1
 Z ~ N    0,   1
f(Z)

Z
0

Values above the mean have positive Z-values

Values below the mean have negative Z-values
Chap 5-8
 The Standardized Normal
Distribution: Example
 If X is distributed normally with mean of 100 and
standard deviation of 50, the Z value for X = 200 is

X  μ 200  100
Z   2.0
σ 50
 (can ignore)This says that X = 200 is two standard
deviations (2 increments of 50 units) above the mean of
100.

Chap 5-9
 The Standardized Normal
Distribution: Example

100 200 X (μ = 100, σ = 50)

0 2.0 Z (μ = 0, σ = 1)

Note that the distribution is the same, only the

scale has changed. We can express the problem in
original units (X) or in standardized units (Z)
Chap 5-10
 Normal Probabilities

Probability is measured by the area under the curve

P(a ≤ X ≤ b)
f(X) Note that the
probability of any
individual value is
zero, meaning
P(X = k) = 0

a b
Chap 5-11
Chap 5-12
 Normal Probabilities
The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve is
symmetric, so half is above the mean, half is below.

f(X) P(   X  μ)  0.5
P(μ  X   )  0.5

0.5 0.5

P(   X   )  1.0

Chap 5-13
 Finding Normal Probability
Example
 Find P(X > 8.6)… if X is Normal with mean 8 and standard deviation 5.

P(X > 8.6) = P(Z > 0.12) = 1.0 - P(Z ≤ 0.12)

= 1.0 - 0.5478 = 0.4522
0.5478
1.0 - 0.5478 = 0.4522

Z
0

0.12
Chap 5-14
Chap 5-15
Chap 5-16
Chap 5-17
Chap 5-18
Chap 5-19
 Finding Normal Probability
Between Two Values
 Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and standard
deviation 5.0. Find P(8 < X < 8.6)

Calculate Z-values:

X μ 88
Z  0
σ 5
8 8.6 X

X  μ 8.6  8 0 0.12 Z
Z   0.12
σ 5 P(8 < X < 8.6)
= P(0 < Z < 0.12)
Chap 5-20
 Finding Normal Probability
Between Two Values
P(8 < X < 8.6) = P(0 < Z < 0.12)
= P(Z < 0.12) – P(Z ≤ 0)
= 0.5478 - 0.5 = 0.0478
0.0478
0.5

Z
0.00 0.12

Chap 5-21
 Exercise
Find the probability for the following:
1.P(Z > - 1.5)
2.P(Z < - 0.15)

3.P(-3 < Z < -1.6)

4.P(1.2 < Z < 2.0)

5.P(-1.06 < Z < 0.97)

6.P(Z > 3.9)

7.P(Z < 4.1)

Chap 5-22
 Given Normal Probability,
Find the X Value
 Let X represent the time
it takes (in seconds) to
download an image file
from the internet.
 Suppose X is normal
with mean 8.0 and
standard deviation 5.0
 Find X such that 20%
of download times are
less than X.
Chap 5-23
Chap 5-24
 Given Normal Probability,
Find the X Value
 First, find the Z value corresponds to the known
probability using the table.

Chap 5-25
 Given Normal Probability,
Find the X Value
 Second, convert the Z value to X units using the
following formula.

X  μ  Zσ
 8.0  (0.84)(5.0)
 3.80

So 20% of the download times from the distribution with mean

8.0 and standard deviation 5.0 are less than 3.80 seconds.

Chap 5-26
 Example
A marketing manager of a leading firm believes that total sales for
the firm next year can be modeled by using a normal distribution,
with a mean of RM2.5 million and a standard deviation of
RM300,000.

a) What is the probability that the firm’s sales will exceed

RM3 million?
b) In order to cover fixed costs, the firm’s sales must exceed
the break-even level of RM1.8 million. What is the probability that
sales will exceed the break-even level?
c) Determine the sales level that has only a 9% chance of being
exceeded next year.
Chap 5-27
Chap 5-28
Chap 5-29
X ~ N (μ = 2.5 million, σ = 0.3 million)

a) P( X  3) b) P( X  1.8)
 X   3  2.5   X   1.8  2.5 
 P    P  
  0.3    0.3 
 P ( z  1.67)  P ( z  2.33)  1  A(2.33)
 1  0.9525  0.0475  1  [1  A(2.33)]
 0.9901

Chap 5-30
c) Given P(X > k) = 0.09
When the right tail area is 0.09, then refer to A(z) with the
probability nearest to 0.91 z = 1.34

X 
z

X  2.5
1.34 
0.3
X  1.34 (0.3)  2.5
 RM 2.9 million

Chap 5-31